Wait And Watch

IN Parliament's Central Hall last week, Janata Dal MP S. Jaipal Reddy enticed Congressmen with the prospect of a stable, Congress-led coalition. It could last four years, he said, with a mutual fear of elections keeping the coalition partners in line. Once the AIADMK broke away from the BJP, other allies would follow suit and become stabilising factors. This was music to the ears of Congress MPs, who would like nothing better than power without polls. And Congressmen—not the leadership—even mouthed it the next day.

The leadership, of course, is noticeably less enthusiastic than your average MP. "It's easy to form a government, not so easy to run it," says CWC member Sharad Pawar. The prospect of having to run a government subject to the pulls of coalition partners is daunting. Already, there are sharp differences between the Congress and the erstwhile Third Force over economic issues and the women's reservation Bill. The Congress is at loggerheads with the Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha (RLM) in UP and Bihar; to accept their support at the Centre would be a setback to plans for a long-term revival in these states, where it intends to go it alone.

"We are not sanyasis, we would like to be in power, but who wants to tackle this mess created by the BJP without a popular mandate?" asks a senior Congress MP. An indication of the party's future action is expected in Congress president Sonia Gandhi's address to the AICC on December 18, but no Congress leader is willing to bet on the present set-up continuing for more than a year.

Senior Congress leaders admit, off the record, that there's no question of the BJP government falling unless it gives a green signal to its potential partners. The allies, who were expected to ditch the BJP after the assembly polls have rallied behind the party.

The Congress would have to take the initiative to topple Atal Behari Vajpayee—the only question is when. "It's a hard choice. We would have to gauge the public mood," says CWC member P.A. Sangma. The official line, says Lok Sabha chief whip P.J. Kurien, is: do not destabilise the BJP;if it falls, form a government.

A section of Congress leaders, however, feels going to elections may be more viable. Leaders like Pawar, Jitendra Prasad, Manmohan Singh, A.K. Antony, Pranab Mukherjee want to "wait and watch", while older-generation Congressmen like V.B. Reddy, K. Karunakaran, Arjun Singh want to form a government.

The Congress is keeping a close eye on the RSS conclave at Nagpur. Any move to replace Vajpayee would mean a drastic realignment at the Centre, as a change will not be acceptable to allies. It is also keeping tabs on the cases against AIADMK leader J. Jayalalitha, a potential ally.

"We would like to test the waters in UP and Maharashtra," says a CWC member. The party also needs time to strengthen itself in UP, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Punjab and West Bengal, which account for 233 seats, but where it has only six MPs. The Congress hopes that if the minorities return to its fold, so will the upper castes. The fact that it improved its vote percentage in the Agra bypoll has encouraged these hopes.

It is attempting to send positive signals to the electorate by amending its constitution to provide quotas for women and minorities; and setting up a Congress Election Authority, along the lines of the election commission, to organise party polls. Ostensibly, this would curb the power of the Congress president to make ad hoc appointments. But the culture of adhocism, ingrained in the party for 25 years, isn't going to be easy to shake off. "All it takes is a message from the Congress president saying such and such a person should be the consensus candidate."

 So, will Sonia be willing to form a government and if and when she does, who would head it? Except for a few acolytes who say she is the natural choice for PM, Congressmen are wary of hazarding a guess on the subject.