IF I were in a position to campaign for you, would I have not contested the elections myself?" This was P.V. Narasimha Rao, five days before Rajiv Gandhi's assassination. The polite demurral, with the self-deprecatory tone typical of the man through his nearly five-decade political life, was addressed to a woman Congress candidate who wanted him to canvass votes for her before the May 1991 general elections. Rao cited his bypass surgery and the consequent decision to retire from public life.
Days later, he was engaged in active lobbying—first for the party chief's post and then the Prime Minister's office. In subsequent years, he has sidestepped health problems as well as political crises with a sure-footed survival instinct, defying doomsayers repeatedly. Lady Luck has obviously been on his side. Ironically, it is the Congress that seems singularly bereft of luck—Rao's well-sustained tryst with power has coincided with a downslide in his party's fortunes.
Rao's first plus came in having ensured a full five-year term for a government that has had a tenuous relationship with majority. Rao enjoys the support of an estimated 300 of the 360 party MPs in both Houses of Parliament, the Chandraswami controversy notwithstanding. But judgment day is nearing. The basic contradiction in his rule—adherence to power and alienation from the base—may extract its toll as he leads the party to the next elections, only few months away.
His trump-card is that his opponents are by no means arrayed against him in a neat battle formation. The Gujarat crisis, with possible wider repercussions for the BJP, and the Telugu Desam's woes in Andhra Pradesh have provided some cause for optimism in a hitherto bleak pre-poll scenario for the Congress. Particularly so, because non-Congress centrist elements have not yet managed to cobble together a viable third force. And in Tamil Nadu, Chief Minister J. Jayalalitha, who had walked out of the alliance with the Congress, now has her own set of problems with former minister Veerappan and his budding alliance with cinestar Rajnikant.
Within the party, Rao-sceptics tend to fritter their energy in mutual recriminations—not even during the Arjun-Tiwari split could his antagonists manage a truly collective voice. "Many of us have had reservations about him at one time or the other, on one issue or the other. But they were never raised properly," says a prominent Cabinet member. He concedes the decline in the party organisation has only vested more powers in Rao's hand. On the flip side, the lack of cohesion down the ranks has only created further confusion: many state units are involved in factional feuds in the election year. In short, Rao has gained but at the party's expense.
On the achievements front, there is a list of macro issues: liberalisation, stability, the business-like handling of militancy in Punjab. "The Rao Government has somehow been able to create an impression among the people that it has succeeded in bringing the economy back on the rails and restoring normalcy in terrorist-hit states," says Rajya Sabha MP Bhuvaneshwar Kalita, a former AICC joint secretary.
Here comes the next catch. The cadres have a genuine grouse—the absence of the party machinery's involvement on these fronts. Even the propaganda style Rao has chosen banks heavily on prime time television promotionals rather than grassroots-level party channels. "Who will tell voters about such achievements if the cadres are not mobilised for this task?" asks Tariq Anwar, chairman of the party's minority cell. The Surajkund 'training camp' held in July for about 250 selected workers probably served no purpose because it was not followed up with any practical guidelines from 24 Akbar Road, the party headquarters.
Members of the Congress Parliamentary Party level identical charges. "We get three-line whips occasionally but absolutely no briefings, as used to happen regularly during Rajiv Gandhi's time," says a Lok Sabha member from Kerala who still puts himself in the 'Rao loyalist' category. For him, preparing for the next elections is more important than harping on his non-inclusion in the Cabinet.
But true to his image and style of functioning (or, as is frequently alleged, lack of them), Rao depends heavily on a clutch of political managers like Bhuvanesh Chaturvedi, V.C. Shukla, Pranab Mukherjee, Devendra Dwivedi and some loyal bureaucrats. In his scheme of things, a government's survival hinges on its capacity to manage an adequate number of MPs. This explains Shukla's prominence both in the Government and the party—it was he who organised a series of defections fromthe Janata Dal, including the one during the July 1993 non-confidence motion.And it was he who had it conveyed to Sonia Gandhi that the Bofors probe would beexpedited if she did not keep quiet. Operation Gujarat is only the latest in hisstring of exploits.
Handlingpolitical affairs almost exclusively through lieutenants has its corollaries.State party units are in disarray. In almost a dozen states – including UttarPradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Gujarat– various proposals for reorganisation or appointing chiefs have been pendingfor months. Rao is said to be still counting the pros and cons of expanding somePCCS to over twice their size "so that everyone could get a place".
After havingpacked the Cabinet with anti-Sharad Pawar people, Rao is under pressure fromHome Minister S.B. Chavan to make Suhakarrao Naik the Maharashtra PCC chief."If that happens, Pawar will raise the banner of revolt and that will be muchmore serious than the one organised by Arjun Singh," says a Lok Sabha memberfrom the state. Pawar still commands the support of an estimated 70 MLAs andabout 35 MPs, some of them from outside the state. "But I don’t think Raowill force Pawar to that extent," the MP says. Pawar has already raised issueslike the need to apologise for the Ayodhya demolition in a bid to projectideological, more than personal, differences with Rao.
The MaharashtraMP hopes the PCC chief will be selected from the neutral three – AICC GeneralSecretary S.K. Shinde, and state leaders Prataprao Bosale and Patang Rao Kadam.Shinde himself is a amenable to the idea: "I have no reservation if the highcommand wants that." What has delayed the process is Rao’s indecisiveness.In the past, he has tended to keep at bay people with some personal following.He even prefers the Elders over Lok Sabha MPs for inclusion in the Cabinet.
Hisindecisiveness and his dependence on a bunch of lieutenants have contributed tohis stability. Those who know Rao closely speak of his perceptive nature. "Heknows people, their strengths and weaknesses alike and never misses anopportunity to exploit them. Remember how he used Pawar against Arjun Singh andhumiliated the former after Singh’s expulsion," points out a close aide."He feels more comfortable interacting with small groups rather than involvinga larger section of the party in important decisions."
This may be arecipe for a government’s stability but certainly not for electoral victory,which demands a close rapport with the masses more than manipulation of symbols. For instance, Beant Singh’s assassination not only deprived Rao of a hard-coresupporter but also robbed him of a major electoral plank: that of havingrestored peace in Punjab. And while he crows about a national consensus onliberalisation, even some party MPs have joined the Opposition chorus againstthe open-door policy in the consumer goods sector. In fact, MPs from theNorth-East have complained that no positive effect of liberalisation has reachedtheir region. Assam, the state Finance Minister Manmohan Singh represents in theRajya Sabha, has just had Rs 1 crore worth of investments during the four yearsof reforms. While the coming five months could still witness an effort onRao’s part to bring about a semblance of coordination between the Organisationand the Government, there are indications that the decline in his authority andin the party’s support base are irreversible. Ghulam Nabi Azad did not waverbefore quitting the ministry when Rajiv Gandhi drafted him for party work in1987. But at least three ministers – Balram Jakhar and C.K. Jaffer Sharief,besides Azad – have defied Rao’s suggestion that they take up party work.
Sharief, inparticular, may have already been pushed too far. As he returned to Delhi onOctober 12 after a month-long treatment in London, he was unruffled by the briefnote he received from the PMO, informing him that Rao himself would look afterthe Railway portfolio. The message, followed by a Rashtrapati Bhavan communiquea day later, had the effect of an order taking away the crucial portfolio. Butan unperturbed Sharief summoned ministry officials to his Akbar Road residenceto get a feedback. Later, he was said to be exploring the extreme option ofresigning from the Cabinet.
The otherinstance of a minister standing up against the Prime Minister in a fashion neverwitnessed during the Indira-Rajiv years came with Rajesh Pilot. His parting shotas minister of state for Home – ordering the arrest of Chandraswami, with hisknown proximity to Rao – was likened by some to V.P. Singh’s 1987 order fora probe into kickbacks in defence deals. Pilot has since been shifted to theEnvironment Ministry but the fallout is still expected.
Youth Congresschief M.S. Bitta did threaten to mobilise volunteers against Pilot, but he wasan exception. Pilot has the tacit support of many. Says a Muslim party leaderwho was part of the Rajiv cabinet; "Pilot has everything on his side – asecular image, a backward class and rural background and urban sophistication,besides age." The endorsement he got from two PCC chiefs – Ashok Gehlot(Rajasthan) and Jitendra Prasada (Uttar Pradesh) – indicates disgruntledCongressmen may, if push comes to shove, provide fodder for the Oppositiontirade against Rao. And corruption and criminalisation of politics are going tobe key poll planks.
Pilot has alsoinitiated a move for a patch-up with Arjun Singh and N.D. Tiwari along with AICCGeneral Secretary Ahmed Patel. The logic is that Muslim support cannot beregained if the breakaway duo is out of the Congress. The party admits erosionin its traditional base – SC/STS, minorities and backwards – mainly in thepost-Mandal and post-Ayodhya phase. The revolt by Pilot and Sharief, though notcoordinated, threatens to alienate the residual support base further.
With LalooYadav sitting pretty in Bihar and Mulayam Singh Yadav emerging unscarred fromhis ouster from power in a tie-up with the Left Front, the Congress faces a grimprospect in two states which together contribute 139 seats to the Lok Sabha.Sonia Gandhi’s emotive posturings and Tiwari’s exit had already donesubstantial damage in Uttar Pradesh.
The threat tothe Digvijay Singh government from the BJP’s overtures to tribal MP Ajit Jogiand the revolt brewing in Orissa against Chief Minister J.B. Patnaik are badomens for the party – it might end up ruling only a few states like Kerala andsome north-eastern states.
The AndhraPradesh unit is debilitated by factional feuds. The party also faces a bleakfuture in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu – in the latter, despite the fact thatJayalalitha looks less solid than ever before. The fact that Rao has failed tocreate a strong PCC or have any AICC member from the state for the past fouryears is telling. Crucial decisions like renewing the alliance with the AIADMKtoo have gone abegging. "Indira Gandhi used to emerge stronger when regionalsatraps had problems. But non developments in states have an accumulatedreaction against the Centre and all, including Rao, are losers," says an AICCleader.
But theCongress tragedy has not catalysed the formation of a strong alternative. Norhas the BJP, of late, behaved any different. The realignment of non-Congresselements into a third force – typical of the election countdown period – isyet to gather steam. The TDP split and the DMK’s unceremonious removal fromthe NF has only put a spoke in the wheel of the process. But can Ro galvanise anenfeebled Congress into a position where it can capitalise on others’weaknesses? The safe bet seems to be a hung Parliament, with a possible newequation to block the BJP’s access to New Delhi. Rao has displayed an uncannyability to cross creaky bridges when he comes to them. The coming elections willprove the most perilous of them all.
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