The Winds Of Change

THE good news at the end of the first phase of polling in 26 constituencies in Jammu and Kashmir on September 7 is that, despite the few odd voices speaking of coercion, it was a relatively free and fair poll. The official poll percentage, of 45 to 47 per cent throughout the state, is seen in many quarters as far-fetched. But for every voter in the Kashmir Valley speaking of pressure from the army and paramilitary forces, there was another who said that he had come to exercise his franchise on his own free will. 

Voters ambled up to the polling stations in small groups throughout the day and, this time, one was spared the sight of entire villages huddled before polling stations protesting to the press that they had been herded out of their homes by the security forces. The assembly elections, by any reckoning, involved the electorate far more than the parliamentary polls which preceded it.

This is not to say that the elections were incident-free. There have been complaints of booth capturing from the Pattan and Sonawari segments in the Valley. And also allegations that gunmen belonging to surrendered militant groups had forced people out of their homes. In Sopore, a group of labourers told reporters that they had been forced to vote although they were not on the voter's list. But despite such aberrations and a surprisingly high voting percentage at the end of the day, and it is definite that more voters exercised their franchise voluntarily than in any election held here in the last nine years.

The healthy response was brought about by spirited campaigning in the seven constituencies in Rajouri and Poonch, the four seats in Ladakh and the 15 assembly segments in the Valley. In all, 142 candidates were in the fray. However, the campaigning, particularly in Kashmir, was marred by the presence of the Awami League (AL) in the fray. Gunmen of the AL, a political front of surrendered militants, have been trigger-happy in dealing with their political rivals despite assurances to the contrary from the state administration, the army and the Central Government. National Conference (NC) and Janata Dal workers have been shot at while campaigning and there has been considerable concern in both parties about the role of the AL in the polls. The induction of the surrendered militants into politics is seen as the singular blackmark in the present elections.

But this has not dampened spirits. Workers of almost all parties have been campaigning so actively that it is difficult at this point to predict an outright victory for any group. In both Poonch and Rajouri districts, the NC, the Congress, the BJP and the JD have been wooing the voters with a lot of gusto and in many of the constituencies it is a neck-and-neck race.

 Even in the Valley, where the shadow of militancy still looms large, the campaigning progressed on a very positive note and the people gave an attentive ear to candidates from various parties. As a result, poll pundits who gauge popularity merely on the turnout at meetings and who had been predicting a cake-walk for the NC on this evidence, are now having second thoughts. But while it is difficult to predict trends in a four-stage election, there are encouraging signs in an overall sense.

Political parties and their leaders are at last coming out of their cocoon of fear and taking their campaign to the people. Thus, when Janata Dal's central party general secretary Wazim Khan decided to kick off his campaign in Srinagar, he took a team of workers and local leaders on a boat on the Dal Lake to canvass among the houseboat owners. Says Khan: "It is time we stop behaving like many of the political leaders in Delhi who approach the Valley with fear. If one is in politics, one has to learn to take risks." Not many leaders would venture on the Dal since it is considered a security risk, but the Janata Dal leader says that one can't remain afraid for ever.

Indeed, there is a wind of change blowing through the Valley. While very little campaigning was visible in the Lok Sabha elections and candidates had then spoken of the risks involved in moving about in their constituencies, the mood now is decidedly positive. Though candidates still move around under the Z-category security provided to them by the state administration and under directives from the police, they now organise meetings where the public is invited. In the parliamentary polls, many of the so-called public meetings were mere get-togethers of party workers on the lawns of a Dak bungalow or a state guest house.

The crowds at the meetings this time around, though nowhere near the scale that one sees in other parts of the country, are substantial by Kashmir's standards. A Farooq Abdullah meeting at Pattan, for example, drew an audience of about 5,000, which in Kashmir is quite a crowd. Similarly, there have been meetings organised by the Congress as well as the Janata Dal in which crowds of over 1,000 attended. This, according to political observers, is because the average Kashmiri feels that an elected government would be more sympathetic to the problems of the state than an administration run by the Centre. Consequently, the voter is more choosy about which party and candidate he votes for.

With the voter more receptive, candidates too have started their campaigns much earlier than they did for the parliamentary elections. Though polling is due in the second phase only on September 16, Mehbooba, daughter of former Union home minister Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, has already begun wooing voters in the Bijbehra constituency in south Kashmir. Sayeed is a new convert to the Congress and his daughter is also contesting on that party's ticket.

Asizeable tract of her constituency falls in the hilly terrain known to be the hideout of the militant outfit Hizbul Mujahideen. But Mehbooba has been campaigning without fear although she moves about with a rather intimidating convoy of security personnel. Despite this, people curious to see her throng around when her motorcade stops at a village square. The Mufti's daughter says she does not feel any fear. "The risks involved are just the same if you are a man or a woman." Mehb-ooba does not wish to predict the outcome of the polls in her constituency, but says that the response from the people has been "rather encouraging". Her mother is also contesting on a Congress ticket from the neighbouring Pahalgam constituency.

In Jammu, which also goes to the polls on September 16, enthusiasm has not been found wanting. Nor have the people been backward in voicing their litany of complaints to those coming to seek votes. Thus, Hansraj Dogra of the BJP,who is contesting a city seat, found that people of his constituency wanted a commitment from him to solve the water crisis and the extended power cuts they were facing. Dogra admits that though he fully agrees with the official BJP line on Jammu and Kashmir, it is the local issues that will dominate the elections. According to party men, the BJP, hit by dissent in its ranks, needs to get on with its campaigning for the second phase of elections.

One assured vote bank of the BJP which is very upset with the party are the Kashmiri Pandits lodged in camps in Jammu. The migrant Pandits have decided to boycott the polls and even burnt their postal ballots on September 7, the day the first phase of the assembly elections got under way. Many of the Pandits did not even bother to apply for their postal votes. Points out Chunnilal Raina, camp president of the 40-odd families housed in a building in the Polytechnic College in Jammu: "No party has come to us. Not even the BJP which is the only party that we believe in. We voted for it in the parliamentary elections, but this time they do not seem to be interested in us."

HOWEVER, Lalit Kumar Moza, president of the BJP's Kashmir unit, says that the Pandits have decided to boycott the polls because of the complicated and time-consuming procedures laid down for postal votes by the Election Commission.

This explanation does not cut much ice with Raina and the 300 voters from the families who live with him. "We should have voted in the first phase since our votes are in Baramulla, but no party is interested. Maybe they don't think our 300 votes count," says the embittered camp leader.

The National Conference, with its controversial decision to induct Karan Singh's son Ajatshatru Singh into the party and give him a NC ticket from the Nagrota constituency outside Jammu, has set tongues wagging. Singh's grandfather Hari Singh, the last maharaja of Jammu and Kashmir, and Farooq Abdullah's father Sheikh Abdullah were bitter rivals since the latter was responsible for ousting the king from his throne. The grandson, who was a fringe Congressman for seven years, however, has decided to bury the hatchet and join hands with Farooq Abdullah and campaign on an NC ticket as a secular champion of the downtrodden (see interview).

Ajat Singh's campaign does not play down the fact that he is the 'Raja Sahib', and in villages outside Jammu he surprises the populace by campaigning with a most unlikely friend for a prince—Gujjar leader Barkhat Ali who went along with Ajat Singh saying that Singh would bring back the old glory that the people of the constituency had lost. Along with Singh is an assistant with a 'Things to Remember' pad in which he jots down the grievances of the people from his constituency. Now that he is in the NC, Ajat Singh hopes to win over both Hindu and Muslim votes as well as votes from the backward communities. The BJP, in particular, has been very critical especially of what its party MP from Udhampur Chamanlal Gupta describes as the "opportunistic and unholy alliance" struck by Singh. 

There are other strange alliances that Farooq has struck to neu-tralise opposition. Thus, Iftekar Ansari, although he is contesting on a Congress ticket, is for all practical purposes a candidate of the NC. At rallies Farooq describes him as the only Congressman that NC supporters should vote for. Ansari returns the compliment by exhorting all true Congressmen to ensure the victory of the National Conference. With state Janata Dal president Abdul Qayoom and a former Congress minister defecting to Farooq after filing nominations, the NC is fast being identified as a party out to break the back of its rivals through politically incorrect arrangements with disgruntled leaders.

 Farooq Abdullah and other NC leaders have been projecting the autonomy package as the party's trump card. But in Ladakh, a traditional Congress stronghold, the Farooq formula is viewed with some amount of suspicion. The NC leader's strong reaction to the proposal to give Union territory status to Ladakh, as hinted by Union Home Minister Indrajit Gupta, was seen in poor light by even NC party workers. One youth leader told Outlook that Farooq had no business to oppose the move. "The Union territory business is a sensitive issue here. We have been fighting for it for years. If Farooq is against it then we will not campaign for him," he said.

In Leh, the principal district town of the region, it is the Congress and to a lesser extent the NC that put in active campaigning. Ladakh went to the polls in the first phase, though surprisingly two of the four assembly constituencies in the region recorded a 45 per cent turnout—lower than the voter response in the Lok Sabha elections.

All eyes, however, will be on the next round of elections. The anti-election lobby headed by the All Party Hurriyat Conference (APHC), the political platform of more than 35 groups fighting for azadi, will renew its efforts to dissuade people from taking part in the elections. With assembly segments in Srinagar going to the polls, their campaign is likely to be more focussed than it was in the first phase when senior Hurriyat leaders Abdul Ghani Lone and Syed Geelani were arrested while they were on a poll-boycott campaign. Another leader, Yaseen Malik, was allegedly roughed up by security forces in the same incident.

The APHC has its support base although this has been shrinking over the last one year. In downtown Srinagar, the Hurriyat's writ still runs. On September 3 when the APHC's chairman Omar Farooq led an anti-election rally, it received a fairly good response. This was the Hurriyat leader's first outing on a campaign of this sort. 

Yet, whatever the Hurriyat does, the final word will be that of the people. After years of insurgency the people of the state would, even if out of sheer desperation, give an elected government a chance. But if such a government fails to deliver, Kashmir analysts predict, there is every likelihood of a return to the days of militancy.