The Seven Sorrows

• The Centre's neglect helped insurgent groups, separatist organisations take root. Army excesses didn't help.
  
• Migration issue has been politicised in Assam. Outfits like ULFA have now begun to strike at migrant labour.
  
• The Northeast shares a 4,500 km-long border with China, Myanmar, Bhutan and Bangladesh. Insurgents find safe havens/support from anti-India forces.
  
• Rebel groups with links in Bangladesh are said to have ties with the ISI.

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Facing heat at home, the ULFA opened shop in Bangladesh in 1985, setting up safehouses in Damai village in Moulvi Bazar district. Intelligence sources say the task of strengthening links there "was entrusted to ULFA leader Munin Nobis (who has since surrendered)...the idea was to use Bangla elements to establish links with allies in Pakistan." The Pakistani contacts assisted the crossover of a number of ULFA activists, including the military chief Paresh Baruah, to Afghanistan.

While the ULFA's top leadership chose Bangladesh as their base, the group's band of fighters was stationed in Bhutan. As the military offensive intensified, 3,000 ULFA militants moved over into southern Bhutan. But Thimphu had had enough. After it failed to persuade the rebels to leave peacefully, Bhutan launched a crackdown in December '03 and expelled the rebels. Dago Tshering, Bhutan's ambassador to India, says, "Maybe we were not good diplomats, we failed to make the ULFA rebels leave peacefully."

But Bangladesh remains a concern, with worries of even the forces there being a partner to the terror. New Delhi has for a decade harped about the 200-odd rebel camps there but to no avail. In recent weeks, though, Dhaka is said to have agreed to look into pinpoint details given by India. Ajai Sahni of the Institute for Conflict Management isn't optimistic: "The ULFA is compelled to seek help or act in collaboration with groups like the HuJI to stay afloat and run its businesses in Bangladesh. Dhaka has not acted tough on groups like the HuJI."

The October 30 attack has brought the spotlight back on ULFA, the only group capable of carrying out such well-coordinated attacks. Could an outside force have got it to execute the terror plans? In the absence of independent verification, one has to factor in the claims of the security agencies as well as the ULFA denial of any involvement.

Again, what of the intelligence reports that a 36-member ULFA squad accompanied by "Islamic elements" had entered Assam from Bangladesh in two motorboats on October 18? The police are said to be "puzzled at the identity of the Islamic elements". As far as the rest of India is concerned, the same can be said of the serial blast perpetrators.