The Seam Is Upright, But No Swing Yet

Besides the weather, what’s warming things up in the state capital is the concentration of Kerala’s BJP heavyweights in five of the 14 assembly constituencies that fall in Thiruvanantha­puram dis­­­t­rict. O. Rajagopal, former Union minister of state, is in the contest for Nemom; the present state unit president Kummanam Rajasekharan from Vattiyoor­kavu; former state unit president V. Mur­aleedharan from Kazhakootam; P.K. Krishnadas, also a former state unit chief, is contesting from Katta­kada; and cricketer S. Sreesanth is trying his luck in Thiruvananthapuram constituency.

But the big question is whether the concentration of heavies will generate enough of a wave for the party to pick up a few seats. The party had considerably increased its voteshare in Thiruvananthapuram district during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and won 34 seats in the city’s municipal corporation in 2015. Considering all that, not surprisingly, most surveys are giving the BJP the benefit of at least one seat in the assembly. But from the undercurrents at play, that seat might still not be from Thiruvananthapuram.

Rajagopal, 85, is seeking votes once again on the sympathy factor. This is the third time running he is asking for votes on those grounds. He was politely turned down by voters in the Aruvikkara assembly byelection in 2015, and before that in the Lok Sabha elections in 2014. He has been contesting both the Lok Sabha and assembly elections since 1980—but with no luck. For all that, he’s been the face of the BJP—and was active with the Jana Sangh too--and has been a Rajya Sabha member from Madhya Pradesh. One analyst put it thus: each time he loses, the sympathy for him increases, and on that count, it has peaked this time!

It has to be said that it’s his perseverance that is behind the steady increase in the BJP’s voteshare in the state, but no one is willing to comment on why he himself has consistently lost elections. Rajagopal’s present opponent in Nemom, V. Sivankutty, an MLA of the CPI(M), has a negative image for unruly scenes in the assembly, but he cannot be ruled out, for he has a reputation for being there for people in times of need. On the other hand, Rajagopal is said to be dismissive of people seeking help. So on polling day, Sivankutty might well come up trumps.

In Thiruvananthapuram consti­tuency, it’s pretty evident that BJP national chief Amit Shah wants to create a splash. Except perhaps for O. Rajagopal, hardly any BJP leader from Kerala is known outside the state. Hence, roping in Sreesanth may have stirred up things a bit and drawn more attention to the elections too. It really doesn’t matter if he is being trolled or sniggered at for his selfless selfies and his incredibly naive political statements, for it has got the national media excited. This seems to have been exactly Shah’s intention. And Sreesanth has been busy, taking selfies, visiting temples—even a church. Remember Sreesanth making the sign of the cross just before the run-up to his bowling? He has clearly not shed that symbolism though he has joined Hindutva hardliners.

Sreesanth may indeed mop up some votes from his cricket-crazy fans, but is still unlikely to emerge the winner, for there is discontent brewing among BJP workers for having an outsider foisted on them. According to a report in Manorama Online, the party ignored local leaders and brought in outside candidates to all these constituencies and the local leaders in the district have taken a dim view of the decision and have been defiant.

This may lead to cross-voting in favour of the UDF health minister and sitting MLA V.S. Sivakumar, who is contesting in Thiruvananthapuram. The LDF local leadership too is pretty unhappy with the choice of their candidate, Anthony Raju of the Democratic Kerala Congress, a breakaway faction from former UDF finance minister K.M. Mani’s Kerala Congress (M), instead of their own. This, and the fact that Sivakumar enjoys the backing of G. Sukumaran, a leader of the Nair Service Society, a powerful Hindu caste group, gives him an edge.

There is an interesting independent candidate in the fray, Elias John of the Vizhinjam Mother Port Action Cou­ncil, who has been campaigning vigorously for a Vizhinjam port for the past 25 years. Now that the port project has been awarded to the Gautam Adani group, John is of the view that Thiruvananthapuram will not benefit from the deal as it should have, so he hopes to win elections at least to get the local people jobs and develop the local industry to feed the port.

Political analyst P. Rajan feels that it does not matter that Sreesanth is new to politics, for people will vote for the party and not the candidate. He says, “O. Rajagopal, Sreesanth and Rajasekharan are likely to win.” However, Rajasekharan, who is the BJP state chief, is a rank outsider in Vattiyoorkavu. Even BJP members think he is politically raw, for he was an RSS pracharak fighting environmental and social issues but was picked as the BJP chief for his hardcore communal views. With Dr T.N. Seema of the CPI(M) and K. Muraleedharan of the Congress contesting, it is going to be tough going for Rajasekharan. Muraleedharan, former chief minister K. Karunakaran’s son, and a sitting MLA, has been working hard for the last four years and is a formidable opponent. This is one leader who has not (yet) been blemished by any corruption charges in the UDF and is one among the three MLAs who has 100 per cent attendance in the assembly.

The Congress leadership had included him in the screening committee to select the candidates for the assembly elections, which he regards as a great honour. But the fact is that there are factions within the Congress that seem to be nervous about him—why else would a leading pro-Congress Malayalam channel air a story about the death of an engineering student, the infamous Rajan murder case, from the Emergency days, when Karunakaran was chief minister—and contrive to link it to Muraleedharan just towards the beginning of the election campaign?

That seems to be the only way available to hit out at Muraleedharan, for the people seem to rally behind him now. The story goes that if there is no water in the tap in any one of the bylanes of Vattiyoorkavu, Muraleedharan will be there and get it fixed by evening. (Exactly what happened when this correspondent went to meet him at his office.) There was a lady complaining about water supply being disrupted in her area, a man wanted a bank loan to buy a cow, and outside, many more thronged with petitions. He is so popular that there seems to be a wave in his favour.

When asked about BJP increasing its voteshare considerably in the Lok Sabha elections, Muraleedharan calmly expl­ained that people voted differently in each of the elections. “In the 2011 assembly elections, they had voted for me. And then, in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, Vattiyoorkavu had voted in favour of BJP. However, during local body elections they had voted for the Left,” he says.

He seems to have come a long way from his fumbling days a decade ago, when he and his father had left the party to form a party called Democratic Indira Congress (Karunakaran) and Muraleedharan lost the assembly election from Koduvally. Though Karunakaran returned to the Congress, Muraleedharan stayed with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and lost the 2009 Lok Sabha election. He was refused entry back into the Congress for insulting the Congress leadership while outside the party. He decided to wait it out and was admitted only in 2011; he won from Vattiyoorkavu and is likely to win hands down this time too.

In Kattakada and Kazhakootam, there is very little chance of the BJP emerging winners, for it is a triangular fight. Says a senior journalist, “The Muslim votes may consolidate in favour of the stronger candidate who has a chance to win against the BJP. It need not be the UDF; the Muslim votes just may go the LDF way.” That’s why, even with the prime minister rushing here during the Paravur temple blast and Amit Shah closely monitoring the elections, it’s still only a slim chance that the BJP will open its account.

By Minu Ittyipe in Thiruvananthapuram