A question mark looms over the fate of the AIADMK which, analysts predict, is likely to break up before it celebrates its silver jubilee in 1997. Even optimists in the out-of-power party, founded by the late film star-turned-politician M.G. Ramachandran, foresee a bleak future.
The battle-lines are drawn, with a beleaguered Jayalalitha Jayaram and her aide Sasikala on one side and senior AIADMK leaders on the other. Says R.M. Veerappan, a former Cabinet colleague of Jayalalitha: "What P.V. Narasimha Rao is to the Congress, Jayalalitha is to the AIADMK. Both of them will rest only after they have completely demolished their respective parties."
In keeping with her style of functioning, Jayalalitha has been trying to stem the rebellion with a spate of expulsions that is proving counter-productive. For, it has only led to more open tactics. Among those who have been stripped of the primary membership of the party are former ministers like S.D. Somasundaram, C. Aranganayagam and S. Kannappan. The trio now forms the core rebel group and have pledged to 'save' the AIADMK from Jayalalitha and to see that she is expelled from the party.
The dissidents are planning to convene a general body meeting of the party in the next two weeks in order to oust Jayalalitha. Says Kannappan: "The exact modalities of our struggle to restore democratic values in the party and to get rid of the dictator Jayalalitha will be taken in the next few days after consulting senior leader S.D. Somasundaram who is in jail".
There is overwhelming support for the dissidents from party cadres. The resentment towards Sasikala and her family is such that even sycophants of the former chief minister find it difficult to tolerate their leader's unstinted support to the extra-constitutional functioning of the 'Mannargudi family', as Sasikala and her relatives are often referred to.
Jayalalitha spelt out her reasons for expelling the senior AIADMK leaders in a signed statement: "These leaders have been creating confusion among the party cadres, have hobnobbed with enemies of the party and are engaging in treacherous activities". In reality, the 'treachery' committed by the former ministers was to rally a sizeable section of the party in an anti-Sasikala campaign. Blaming Sasikala and her family for the AIADMK's rout in the recent elections, they asked Jayalalitha to choose between Sasikala and the party leadership.
Aranganayagam was never a high-profile leader but Somasundaram and Kannappan were considered the most powerful ministers in the Jayalalitha Cabinet. While Somasundaram resigned as senior deputy general secretary voluntarily, Jayalalitha removed Kannappan and Arang-anayagam from their posts as party treasurer and headquarters secretary, respectively, on July 5.
The expelled leaders are now baying for Jayalalitha's blood. Says Kannappan: "Jayalalitha has lost her moral and legal grounds to be the general secretary of the party. We do not recognise her expulsion order. We resolve to liberate the party from the clutches of Jayalalitha and Sasikala and bring back the golden rule of Puratchi Thalaivar MGR".
It is still not clear who will lead the struggle against Jayalalitha. Whoever takes the role stands a good chance of being the next AIADMK chief. Apart from Somasunda-ram and Kannappan, the leader of the four-member AIADMK legislature party, S. Thirunavukkarasu, is also trying to edge himself into the top slot. The only AIADMK member to retain his assembly seat since 1977, he claims he is the only leader with a mass base and believes an 'upstart' like Kannappan should have gracefully permitted him to lead the struggle and pave the way for a smooth transfer of leadership.
While individual leaders are staking their claim to the top post, the party base has been slowly getting corroded. The MGR Front led by R.M. Veerappan is also trying to woo the AIADMK cadre, a large section of which has already joined the Tamil Maanila Congress. And with Jayalalitha still reaffirming her faith in Sasikala, political observers see a divide in the party as inevitable. The 10th death anniversary of MGR on December 24, 1997, may well prove to be the first death anniversary of the party founded by him.
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