The Politics Of Brinksmanship

LATE in the evening of October 24, the BJP released the contents of the letter submitted by Congress leaders Amar Sinh Chaudhary and GPCC president C.D. Patel to governor Krishanpal Singh withdrawing support to the Shankersinh Vaghela-led RJP regime. The point being: since the situation has remained unchanged since the withdrawal of support on October 21, why are the Congress and RJP hobnobbing with each other? Around the same time, state home minister Vipul Choudhari and Niranjan Tolia were preparing for a visit to New Delhi to hold talks with Congress president Sitaram Kesri and Pranab Mukherjee.

 Earlier in the rumour-riven morning, the state assembly hall witnessed the coming together of the cabinet—and three contenders to chief ministership. Flanking the controversial chief minister Shankersinh Vaghela was rebel leader in the making, revenue minister Atmaram Patel, industries minister Dilip Parikh and finance minister Babubhai Meghji. The outcome of the meeting was inconclusive. As was Vaghela's visit to the governor soon after.

The game of hedging and stalling was reminiscent of the state Congress line of action. Discontent had been simmering for quite some time over Vaghela's high-handed style of functioning, but it took Kesri's visit two months ago to finally nail the RJP. The state Congress saw Kesri's criticism of the corruption in the government and the character assassination of Vaghela as an indication from the high command to pull the plugs off the RJP government, indeed, on Vaghela himself. Over the months, Vaghela had irked the Congress over several issues which Vaghela-baiter C.D. Patel summari-sed as: "Decisions taken without taking the Congress into confidence." To name a few:the relaxation of the urban land ceiling act, the abolition of the revenue system so that 34 lakh farmers were exempted from paying land revenue, the conferring of land-tilling rights to thousands of tribals, the granting of statutory status to the minorities board, the 'appeasement' of Muslims and the support of the Dalit-led bandh following the riots sparked by the desecration of the Ambedkar statue in Mumbai. To top it all, Vaghela's appointment of tribal leader Madhusudan Mistry as an RJP office-bearer to carve out vote-banks for himself, and his Hamdost (Harijan, Adivasi, Muslims, Dalit, OBCs and STs) formula, was a direct rival to the Congress' Kham (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslims). Congress' patience finally snapped over yet another vote-eroding tactic: the bifurcation of the districts and talukas.

On the inevitable breakdown of ties, Vaghela admitted: "In the last two months, consultation and coordination between us had broken down. But I am in touch with state and national Congress leaders and I am sure a solution will be found. We are open to all proposals, provided the letter submitted by the Congress to the governor is withdrawn."

Ironically, Vaghela's proximity with the Congress high command and his disregard for the state Congress leaders has been a long-standing irritant. "Why should we withdraw the letter?" argued C. D. Patel. "It is the basis of our withdrawal of support and our demand for alternate leadership." The issue of "alternate leadership" itself, however, has spewed a new set of problems, with the Congress and RJP unable to settle on a consensus candidate. Referring to the veiled possibility of Vaghela ruling via remote control, a Congress leader smirked: "Dilip Parikh is a Shanker-bhakt. He is anti-poor and anti-Congress. Atmaram Patel is yet another old man in a hurry. Babubhai Meghji is the only one who will be able to stand his ground in the face of crisis."

 Even so, having reconciled on the need for fresh leadership, trouble erupted when Congress leader and former chief minister Chhabildas Mehta sprung dissension by mooting a coalition government. "A split is not desirable, nor is a coalition government," shot back a much annoyed C.D. Patel.

IN the meantime, hot favourite Dilip Parikh's lame observation—"We are waiting for the Congress to support us. Only  then will we talk about a change in leadership"—was countered by a signature campaign favouring 80-year-old Atmaram Patel. "If the Congress doesn't withdraw support, I'm not in the race. If they do, then I too have a right to become CM," says the RJP leader who was stripped by BJP loyalists in Ahmedabad two years ago in the presence of the then prime minister A.B. Vajpayee.

Not surprisingly, the BJP is jubilant. "The independents are unhappy, so is Atmaram Patel, so is part of the Congress. This marriage will also be a short-lived one," predicts Vajubhai Vala, state president, BJP.

Indulging in the art of brinksmanship,political observers opine that Vaghela is merely going through the paces of re-establishing his position as chief minister to the Congress high command. "A bogey is being created of a probable split in the Congress and the RJP if Vaghela steps down. What they don't understand is that if Vaghela continues, the likelihood of a split in the JDG (Janata Dal Gujarat) faction of the Congress comprising Chhabildas Mehta, Urmilabehn Mehta and Manubhai Kotha-dia is greater," avers a BJP office-bearer.

However, Vishnu Pandya, national coordinator, RJP, reasons: "We are trying to convince the Congress that it makes political sense to continue under the chief minister-ship of Vaghela until the parliamentary polls—primarily because of dissension over the choice of the next CM. If the next CM is not a consensus candidate, it would lead to defections from Congress and RJP. As it is, the BJP has already started horse-trading." Refuting allegations of horse-trading, Vala asserted: "Our stance remains fresh elections. What kind of example will be set to party workers throughout the country if the rebels are taken back? Only if a splintered group is formed will we decide whether to accept them or not." The BJP seems emboldened by the turn of events in UP. But former chief minister Suresh Mehta, en route to BJP vice-president Keshubhai Patel's residence—venue of a series of meetings with the BJP top brass—was guarded: "Whatever happens here will have nothing to do with UP."

 Concluded sources close to Vaghela: "If nothing works out, our people will storm the Vidhan Sabha and the CM will resign in a huff. Then let the BJP and Congress battle it out and we will take things as they come." With Vaghela's October 28 confidence vote, the formation of an official high-level coordination committee headed by a Congress leader seems imminent. But the BJP shadow looms large as does Suresh Mehta's words: "The best situation would be to have fresh polls. At this point we do not want to form the government. But then, you must remember we are a political party."