AT 12.30 pm on March 29, when a group of Congressmen called on party president Sonia Gandhi, she showed no signs of having decided to grace Subramanian Swamy's tea party that evening. They urged her to attend, for no other reason than to "keep our options open" with Swamy's star guest, J. Jayalalitha.
Other Congressmen took the opposite view; Arjun Singh called from Churhat to lobby against her attending. A section of leaders from the south had also pleaded with her not to go, given Swamy's controversial image. But an hour later, when former prime minister H.D. Deve Gowda called to inquire about her programme, Sonia urged him to attend. The word was out that she would go.
The Congress was chuffed with the outcome of her seven-minute appearance, but was undecided about the future of a Sonia-Jaya entente. "Jayalalitha is an unreliable person, she says one thing one day and something else another. Where's the guarantee she won't cut a deal with the BJP tomorrow?" asked CWC member Rajesh Pilot, an invitee who didn't attend.
Sonia had gone out of her way to please the AIADMK leader, who has expressed her willingness to unseat Vajpayee in the past, the only hitch being that the "maharani" (Sonia) didn't bother to speak to her. The day before the party, Swamy had said that since Jayalalitha had no intention of meeting Sonia, he had invited Sonia to meet her. The boot was now on the other foot. "Jayalalitha has certainly gained. We have neither gained nor lost," says CWC member Sushil Kumar Shinde.
Jayalalitha—who last year described the Congress president as a "foreigner" and thus not qualified to lead the country—used Sonia to enhance her stature and gain leverage over Vajpayee. Senior Congress doves would like it to stop at that—indeed, they were afraid events had acquired a momentum of their own and might spin out of control. Swamy, on the other hand, is attempting to arrange a one-to-one meeting with the enthusiastic support of Congress hawks, who want a floor coordination plan in Parliament on the Bhagwat issue.
On this, the ladies cannot but be of one mind. Says a senior leader: "Jayalalitha perceives a threat to her life from the LTTE and Sonia is bound to take a serious view of (defence minister George) Fernandes' tacit support to the Tigers." In fact, the gameplan for unseating Vajpayee hinges on that. "We are going to demand a JPC on the Bhagwat issue. After all, it has serious national security implications. If the BJP refuses, anything can happen," says MP Kamal Nath.
While the doves try to calm things down and the hawks to stir up a storm, Sonia has not indicated whether she wants a no-con-fidence motion. In that event, the hawks want one of the Congress allies to table the motion and force Sonia's hand. With four Samata Party and five BJD MPs, plus two from the northeast and the AIADMK's 18, they say the numbers will work out.
As the Congress moves closer to Jayalalitha, her brinksmanship has alarmed senior Congress leaders, who don't relish the prospect of having to deal with her. About the only Congressman confident of the task is former Tamil Nadu governor Bhishma Narain Singh, who is on excellent terms with her. "She's an emotional person and doesn't always function on logic. Having understood that, I found her easier to deal with than Prafulla Kumar Mahanta," observed Singh. Vajpayee may want his advice.
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