The Final Countdown

WITH P.V. Narasimha Rao having been pushed into a corner, the race has begun for the Congress Parliamentary Party (CPP) leadership in earnest: while the front-runners are Vijaya Bhaskara Reddy and Sharad Pawar, the dark horse is Congress President Sitaram Kesri himself. Bolstered by a Congress tradition that the party president usually takes over as CPP leader.

But despite succeeding in marginalising Rao, Kesri’s actual problems will begin once he quits the CPP post. Pawar has built up a sizeable lobby with ample support from Priya Ranjan Das Munshi, Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Digvijay Singh, Uttar Pradesh Congress President Jitendra Prasada and Praful Patel. What augments V.B. Reddy’s case is the argument that since Kesri is from the North, a leader from the South should head the CPP—some claim this will facilitate better coordination. In true Kesri style, he is ignoring the imminent power struggle and instead concentrating on revamping state party units.

Throughout last week, missiles rained on Rao from Kesri and other party members, making it clear to him that his was a losing battle. Even Kumari Selja, once a loyalist, sent a message that she would no longer stick out her neck for him. Take this example: Selja attended a couple of court hearings as part of Rao’s solidarity brigade in Vigyan Bhavan. Then, she politely turned down Rao-aide Bhuvanesh Chaturvedi’s request to go to court on the plea that she had important engagements in Sirsa (Haryana), the Lok Sabha constituency she represents.

On December 10, Selja was elected to the CPP executive along with 15 others, most of them Rao baiters who immediately demanded his resignation. In the meantime, Kesri also managed to convince nine Congress chief ministers, including Rao’s trusted lieutenant Orissa Chief Minister J.B. Patnaik, that Rao should give up his post.

Earlier, after being elected to the CPP executive by an impressive margin, Das Munshi reiterated: "It’s time Rao puts in his papers". A majority in the CPP even agreed to Das Munshi’s suggestion that they should pass a resolution seeking Rao’s ouster if he did not give up the post voluntarily.

This, after Rao-baiter and former Karnataka chief minister S. Bangarappa announced he was returning to the fold: the welcome nod came from Kesri himself while addressing a joint public meeting in Bangalore on December 15. With Bangarappa’s return, the Congress Legislature Party’s strength has gone up to 41 against the BJP’s 40 in Karnataka. As a result, the BJP, which was the main Opposition party, loses its status.

The other thing on Kesri’s mind was the Congress (Tiwari)’s re-entry into the party. Though he should have been happy with the merger as it would isolate Rao further, the Congress president had some reservations—mostly about Arjun Singh. In 1986, as Congress vice-president, Arjun Singh was instrumental in denying a Rajya Sabha renomination to Kesri. Even after the Congress (T) announced that it was folding up its 19-month-old political outfit to integrate with the Congress unconditionally, Kesri refused to be enthusiastic—a distinct departure from his effusive welcome to Scindia and Bangarappa.

Kesri softened up only when senior leaders K. Karunakaran, Sharad Pawar and A.K. Antony and even Sonia Gandhi prevailed upon him that the "integration must be approved with due respect" without delay. Sonia Gandhi was obviously taking a keen interest: after all, the Congress (T) kept her in the know of all its moves, from the May 1995 split to the merger. "Yes, we have kept her informed on all major issues," admitted Arjun Singh.

The Congress chief still withheld his approval. Kesri said it was imperative to get the nod from state Congress units first, at least in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, as Congress (T) supporters would have to be accommodated in the state party set-up. Given Prasada’s antagonism towards Tiwari—he opposed the Congress (T)’s reentry tooth and nail—and the fact that he is also a member of the Congress Working Committee (CWC), the decision was further delayed. But Kesri could not have given Prasada more weightage than Sonia Gandhi, backed up by Antony, Pawar, Karunakaran and other party stalwarts.

Tariq Anwar, Kesri’s political secretary, was immediately on the defensive: "The news report that the Congress president is reluctant to have them back is incorrect. He takes the mandate the CWC has given him on getting old Congress hands back with the utmost seriousness." In fact, the official reception was listed as the key agenda on Kesri’s engagements soon after his return from Bangalore on December 16.

OF course,once Kesri okayed the integration, his camp followers started singing a different tune. Says a senior party functionary:"Now that the Congress (T) has expressed full faith in Kesri’s leadership, the old chapter is closed". In fact, Kesri will "utilise the Tiwari-Arjun gesture to consolidate his position".

Tiwari also made the right noises once he decided to rejoin: "From now, we are part of the Congress. Our stand vis-a-vis the United Front Government will be decided by the party. But we are grateful for the courtesy extended to us by our UF friends when we were part of it." And certainly for him, giving up the CWC post in May 1995 to float the Congress (T) was much more painful than leaving the UF. But he waited for the right time to make a dignified entry though Rao had sent him several feelers in the past to woo him. (See box).

The other storm Kesri weathered was the CPP executive election. On December 9, senior Rao aides like S.B. Chavan, Pranab Mukherjee and several others agreed to have a consensus on eight members from the Rajya Sabha—where Rao might still have majority over Kesri loyalists—for CPP posts. But a day later, Rao detractors refused to reciprocate the gesture for the CPP body from the Lok Sabha. A list of 16 Rao favourites, circulated by Santosh Mohan Deb, party chief whip in the Lok Sabha, was rejected by 128 of the 140 party members voting for the executive. In fact, Deb explained to Kesri that he circulated the list unwittingly. While Deb has escaped the wrath of Kesri, Rao has not been so lucky.

All the new entrants, including Tiwari, are in favour of Kesri replacing Rao. Only the Congress (T)’s merger—resisted by two Congress (T) ministers Seesh Ram Ola and Satpal Maharaj—has generated a hostile response from the H.D. Deve Gowda-led UF Government as the move directly affected the Cabinet’s composition. Sonia Gandhi’s open support to the unity move only strengthened the bond between the UF and the Rao camp.

Once Rao has been tackled, the Congress seems to be preparing to train its guns on the UF. "I do not think this Government is going to last five years. There could be a mid-term poll, or some other non-BJP government may replace it. But I am against Congress forming the government without a direct mandate from the people," V.N. Gadgil, the party spokesman told Outlook. Gadgil’s response came less than a week before the CWC meeting (December 18) to review the economic situation. The Congress also does not rule out the UF collapsing, courtesy its own contradictions—serious differences have cropped after the Government signed the agreement on labour standards in Singapore.

Close on the heels of Gadgil’s threat, came CBI Director Joginder Singh’s announcement in Chennai that the CBI hoped to clear the Bofors tangle once and for all—after the Swiss Federal Court turned down petitions against handing over papers on the Howitzer deal to Indian investigators. The Bofors case, in terms of the amount involved, may have been bypassed by several other scams that figured during Rao’s tenure. But it has far-reaching political implications: for one, Sonia Gandhi’s role will always be questioned unless a final report exonerates her. "Rao tried the same game earlier using his aide V.C. Shukla against Sonia Gandhi. Gowda is doing it again. In both cases, Rao is the inspiration," claims a Lok Sabha member from Rajasthan, adding that he would like to be identified only after "Rao is out as the CPP leader".

Post Rao, Kesri and his ilk have a lot of rethinking to do on how to build up the Congress’ image as a capable, secular party—by first getting rid of its ‘corrupt’ tag. Otherwise, Kesri’s oft-repeated remark that the Congress is the focal point in the fight against the BJP doesn’t hold. The party leadership might manipulate more defections from the UF fold, but it will be hard put to convince the people that it is the best choice.