RAE BARELI and Amethi are no longer the cockpit of Indian politics. These two VVIP constituencies, represented by Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi, have ceased to mean much even for the Congress. Their fall from grace is symbolic—it matches the decline of the Congress in the state.
In central Uttar Pradesh, the Congress has managed to get 15 tickets, the rest having gone to the BSP, while the BJP and the United Front have fielded candidates in all 80-odd constituencies.
The Congress office in Amethi, which Rajiv Gandhi got built in a record two weeks, is deserted—there's only a sprinkling of cutouts of the former prime minister. "But we are sure that Sonia Gandhi will ultimately lead and revive the party," pipes up Hari Shankar Pathak, campaign manager for party candidate Ram Harsh Singh. It's a feeble show of confidence. That she has not visited Amethi after August 20, 1995, when she accused the Rao government of delaying the Rajiv Gandhi assassination probe, is something they choose not to link with their optimism about her joining the party one day.
Whether Sonia Gandhi joins politics or not is something the future will ascertain, but for now, the Congress can pin hopes only in about half-a-dozen constituencies here—and that too if the Dalits vote for the Congress, courtesy the BSP.
But the BSP does not appear to be on a particularly strong wicket in this region too, going by past records. In the last elections, the Congress had won six seats. The BSP, despite an alliance with the SP and a sizeable Dalit presence in most constituencies, had won only seven seats. The SP picked up 32 seats against the BJP's 35.
For Mulayam Singh Yadav, whose home district Etawah is part of the region, this election is again a prestige issue. Not surprisingly, he has handpicked the UF candidates in the fray. His decision to contest from Sahaswan in Badaun—predominantly a Yadav and Muslim constituency—was not because he was uncertain of victory, but because Sahaswan is less prone to violence and election riots. With the BJP and the BSP baying for his blood ever since the Ramesh Chandra Committee report indicted him for the assault on Mayawati by Samajwadi Party workers last year, Mulayam is not taking any chances.
Nevertheless, it does not reduce the possibility of gang fights between Mulayam's brigade and BJP toughs, given their almost equal presence in the area. The BSP's call for a higher Dalit participation in voting and the Bahujan Volunteers Force's decision to be present in batches of about 500 outside every booth only enhances the possibility of a skirmish on polling day.
In fact, industrialised areas like Kanpur, besides Rae Bareli, Lucknow and Amethi had favoured the BJP overwhelmingly—giving it about 85 per cent of the total seats—in the 1993 election.
The United Front and the BSP have not been able to make much inroads in these areas to counter the BJP—a party known to be urban-centric till the Hindutva slogan became its main election plank 1989 onwards. In all likelihood, Kanshi Ram's party will pose a challenge to the BJP in rural constituencies only.
After all, Kanshi Ram's calculations that only his party has the growth potential—that he can win over Muslims from the UF's support base and also the most backward class from the BJP fold—hasn't actually paid off. This, despite the fact that both Kanshi Ram and Mayawati have toured the region extensively. They are finding it difficult to make a dent in a region where the BJP has a strong organisational base. What has also given an edge to the BJP is the battle of wits between BSP supremo Kanshi Ram and the United Front's Mulayam Singh Yadav—their fight will only help in splintering of the backward votes.
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