Survey Highlight

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MainPage ! Delhi! MadhyaPradesh ! Rajasthan! Chattisgarh

MainFindings

Base: All Respondents	Delhi	Rajasthan	Madhya Pradesh	Chhatisgarh
%saying:	%	%	%	%
Sonia Gandhi is originally a foreigner and hence should not becomethe Prime Minister of India	28	37	34	39
Sonia Gandhi is now an Indian citizen and her foreign origins donot matter for being the Prime Minister of India	62	31	53	44
Don’t know / can’t say	10	11	12	17

Base: AllRespondents

Delhi

Rajasthan

3047

7328

% saying:

%

Improvedmy opinion of the Party

32

45

Worsenedmy opinion of the Party

23

18

Hasnot changed my opinion of the Party

13

8

Don’t know /can’t say

32

29

32% of the respondents in Delhi and 45% of the respondents in Rajasthan have said that their opinionabout the BJP has improved by the manner in which the Central government had handled the Gujarat riots.

1.Intention to vote in the comingVidhan Sabha elections

As mentioned earlier, a sample ofthe voting public were interviewed in 123 Assembly Constituencies in the four states of Delhi, Rajasthan, MPand Chhattisgarh.

Delhi

Rajasthan

MP

Chhattisgarh

Base: All

3047

7328

8295

3266

% who said they would;

%

Definitely will vote

82

94

89

84

Most probably will vote

14

4

8

13

Probably will vote

3

1

3

Probably will not vote

0

Definitely will not vote

1

0

Don’t know / Can’t say

0

2. Whether decided who to vote for in the coming Vidhan Sabha elections

The respondents those who saidthat they were likely to vote in the coming elections, were asked if they had made up their minds about whichparty they would vote for.

Delhi

Rajasthan

MP

Chhattisgarh

Base: Likely to vote in the coming elections

3022

7278

8242

3249

% who said they had decided the party

%

Yes

86

91

93

66

No

14

9

7

34

More than 90% across the fourstates stated that they definitely or most probably intended voting in the forthcoming assembly elections tobe held on December 1, 2003 and more than 90% in Rajasthan and MPsaid that they had even decided on which party they would vote for. Whereas in Delhi 14% and about a third (34%) in Chhattisgarh had not made up their minds about which party to votefor.

3.1DELHI

Voting intention and seatforecast for coming Vidhan Sabha elections

Party

Actual vote in1998 (%)

Voting intentionfor 2003 (%)

Swing

(%)

Actual number ofseats in 1998

Projected numberof seats for 2003

BJP

34.0

33.4

--0.6

15

11

INC

47.8

49.7

+1.9

52

56

Others

18.2

16.9

--1.3

3

Total

100

0

70

In Delhi it seems that Congress islikely to improve upon its performance over 1998 when it had swept to power with a big majority. It is likelyto improve its tally to 56 seats from 52 seats at the expense of BJP, which will now be reduced further to 11seats from the 15 seats that it obtained in 1998.

3.2 RAJASTHAN

Votingintention and seat forecast for coming Vidhan Sabha elections

Party

Actual vote in1998 (%)

Voting intentionfor 2003 (%)

Swing

(%)

Actual number ofseats in 1998

Projected numberof seats for 2003

BJP

33.9

36.4

+2.5

33

67

INC

45.2

40.7

--4.5

153

113

Others

20.9

22.9

+2.0

14

20

Total

100

0

200

In Rajasthan though there is a swing of 4.5% against the Congress and also a swing of 2.5% in favour of the BJP, it does not appear tobe enough to dislodge the Ashok Gehlot government which came to power in 1998 with a substantial lead of over11% in vote share over the BJP.

Thus,the BJP is expected to double its tally of seats from 33 in 1998 to 67 in 2003 and for the Congress it wouldgo down from 153 seats to just 113 seats that is still an overall majority out of the 200 seats in Rajasthan.

3.3 MADHYA PRADESH

Voting intention and seat forecast for coming Vidhan Sabha elections

Party

Actual vote in1998 (%)

Voting intentionfor 2003 (%)

Swing

(%)

Actual number ofseats in 1998

Projected numberof seats for 2003

BJP

38.8

43.1

+4.3

83

147

INC

41.2

34.2

--7.0

124

58

Others

19.9

22.6

+2.7

23

25

Total

100

0

230

In Madhya Pradesh BJP appears tobe a clear winner and is expected to sweep into power with a great majority of 147 seats out of a total of230. The Congress being relegated to a distance second positionwith 58 seats. The dissatisfaction with the Digvijay Singhgovernment in the State has led to a negative swing of 7% against the Congress as compared to 1998 with theBJP reaping in most of the advantage.

3.4 CHHATTISGARH

Voting intention and seat forecast for coming Vidhan Sabha elections

Party

Actual vote in1998 (%)

Voting intentionfor 2003 (%)

Swing

(%)

Actual number ofseats in 1998

Projected numberof seats for 2003

BJP

39.5

40.0

+0.5

36

43

INC

41.0

40.0

--1.0

48

43

Others

19.5

20.0

+0.5

6

4

Total

100

0

90

According to the poll, inChhattisgarh there has been a swing of 1.0% against the Congress and 0.5% in favour of the BJP and this is likely to result in an even share of votes between the two parties. Thus, both Congress and BJP arelikely to get 43 seats each out of a total of 90 seats in the state.

This is on the assumption thatthere will be free and fair elections as some doubt has been expressed by people and even by the ElectionCommission about the impartiality of the officials in charge of the elections.

Chhattisgarh was a part of MadhyaPradesh till Nov. 1,2000 and Congress has been in power in Madhya Pradesh for the last ten years. We have observed anti incumbency factor at play in Madhya Pradesh resulting in a swing againstthe Congress. It is felt that there is a certain rub off in Chhattisgarh of the situation in Madhya Pradesh.

Further, the fieldwork for thispoll was conducted before the exposure of Sh. Dilip Singh Judev accepting a bribe resulting in his resignationfrom the Central Government. Hence, the results do not reflect the likely impact of this episode on the finaloutcome as we go forward.

If the Judev scandal gathers steamin the next few days, it is likely that a reversal happens and Congress could win the elections especiallywhen the margin in vote share is so narrow.

Introduction& Background

The terms of State LegislativeAssemblies in four states viz., Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are coming to an end on thefollowing dates

No

State

From

To

Delhi

Dec.14, 1998

Dec.13, 2003

Rajasthan

Jan.4, 1999

Jan.3, 2004

MadhyaPradesh

Feb.1, 1999

Jan.31, 2004

Chhattisgarh

Feb.1, 1999

Jan.31, 2004

In view of this the Election Commission has decreed to hold the elections to these four State LegislativeAssemblies together on 1^st Dec. 2003.

Outlook commissioned ACNielsento conduct an Opinion Poll to gauge the current mood of the electorate and also to determine the likelyoutcome of the four State Assembly Elections. The Poll also sought todetermine the perceived strengths and weaknesses of the Political Parties in the fray and who was consideredto be the most capable of being the Chief Minister in each of the four states.

Purpose

The main purpose of the research,as indicated earlier, was to determine the likely outcome of the State Assembly Elections and also to predictthe number of seats likely to be won by each of the main Political Parties (or alliances) contesting theelections.

More specifically we sought todetermine the following from the study;

(i)Past voting patterns both the last General Elections and State Assembly Elections

(ii)Voting intentions for the forthcoming Assembly Elections (Party of 1^st choice and Party of 2^ndchoice) and reasons for voting for a particular Party.

(iii)Image of the main Political Parties contesting elections in the State on a number of factors such aslaw and order, stability, efficiency, water scarcity; drought etc.

(iv)Level of satisfaction / dissatisfaction with the present Governments in the States.

(v)Evaluation of the performance of current State Chief Ministers – Shiela Dikshit in Delhi, AshokGehlot in Rajasthan, Digvijay Singh in Madhya Pradesh and Ajit Jogi in Chhattisgarh.

(vi)Major issues being faced in each of the four States and the Party that is perceived to be most capableof handling these issues.

(vii)Image and views on key leaders in the main Political Parties in each of the four States.

(viii)Who is considered to be the most capable of being the next Chief Minister in each of the four States.

(ix)Demographic profile of the voters including religion, caste, literacy level etc.

Methodology

The poll was conducted using astructured questionnaire and personal interviews were conducted among a sample of the voting public chosen atrandom.

The proposed coverage ofAssembly Constituencies in each state and the actual coverage including the proposed and actual sample sizesachieved are given in the table below. In each Assembly Constituency approximately 180 men and women werepolled for the survey. In all a total of 21,936 interviews wereconducted in the four states as illustrated below:

State

Totalnumber of ACs

Proposedcoverage of ACs

Actualcoverage of ACs

Totalsample size proposed

Actualsample size achieved

Delhi

70

14

17

2,520

3,047

Rajasthan

200

40

42

7,200

7,328

MadhyaPradesh

230

46

8,280

8,295

Chhattisgarh

90

18

3,240

3,266

TOTAL

590

118

123

18,240

21,936

The assembly constituenciesthat were chosen for the poll were selected on the basis of the voting pattern as observed over the last twostate assembly elections. Consideration was also given to:

·Swing in the selected assembly constituencies to closely match the overall swing in the state as awhole;

·Assembly constituencies that have shown shifts across parties over the two elections;

·Assembly constituencies that have elected representatives with small margins.

·VIP constituencies to be omitted.

While selecting the assemblyconstituencies care was taken to ensure that they were geographically spread to cover all the regions of theState. The list of assembly constituencies that were covered in thestudy in each state is appended to this report.

The sample in each assemblyconstituency was split between Urban and Rural areas with the actual split depending on whether the assemblyconstituency is primarily urban or rural. At the time of analysis thesefigures were weighted to reflect the actual Urban / Rural distribution in each assembly constituency / State.

In the urban areas interviewswere conducted with men and women in the ratio 60:40, and only males were interviewed in the rural areas, aswe normally do for such studies.

All interviews were conducted bytrained ACNielsen investigators working under supervision. They werepersonally briefed by a senior ACNielsen executive.

The fieldwork for the study wasconducted from 30^th October to 9^th November 2003.

Anote on the model used for forecasts

We have been collectingpolitical opinion poll data since 1989 and have now developed a sophisticated and robust model for forecastingthe number of seats a party is likely to obtain.

In the forecasting model that wehave developed we lay a strong emphasis on attitudes people express towards a particular party, in terms ofhow they feel each party can tackle current political issues such as ‘riot handling’ / ‘communaldisharmony’ / ‘rising prices’ / ‘communalism’ / ‘law &order’ etc. These responses are weighted to arrive at a‘surrogate’ voting intention for each individual.

Also the model gives moreemphasis on the swing in voting intentions rather than actual voting intention.This is because it is difficult to get a totally representative sample covering all communities andbackward classes. The swing factor is subject to less error than theactual voting distribution. The swing data is usually superimposed onthe last election results to arrive at the new forecast.

MainPage ! Delhi! MadhyaPradesh ! Rajasthan! Chattisgarh

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Survey Highlight

Summarised prospective voting patterns and results, Sonia Gandhi's foreign origins and Gujarat riots handling.

SurveyHighlights

MainFindings

Introduction& Background

Purpose

Methodology

Anote on the model used for forecasts