State Of Confusion

EXPELLED BJP leader Shankarsinh Vaghela couldn't have hoped for a better launch. On August 20, when he announced his new party, Ahmedabad's 10,000-capacity RamLila grounds drew over 60,000 people, many of whom spilled out onto the street, down the road and into adjacent buildings. And so, the Rashtriya Janata Party (RJP) came into being with all the flamboyance and controversy associated with its founder—a loud and colourful beginning, a platform of expelled leaders and the confusion of a national party with a regional agenda.

Vaghela clearly has his parent party worried. Not only does his new party have a well-established 'state unit', his associate, suspended Gujarat industries minister Dilip Parikh's Gujarat Janata Party (GJP) has already claimed, but failed to prove, the support of 43 MLAs. It is believed that the GJP, which has been invited to join Vaghela's RJP, was formed to test how many MLAs were ready to join hands with the dissidents. Besides, Vaghela wouldn't lose face if a respectable number didn't defect.

That it hasn't drawn the blood Vaghela expected has given the BJP hope. At the national and state level, the party put on a brave face and dismissed the rebel, saying he spoke of a five-lakh-strong crowd and attracted less than 50,000, boasted of a galaxy of national leaders but couldn't bring in even one. Venkaiah Naidu hints at a Congress hand pulling the strings. "Their efforts have ended in frustration and confusion—strategical confusion, ideological confusion, political confusion," he said. "As I have been saying, the Congress is behind this." 

The problem for the BJP is not the rally and the birth of a party, but the attendant chaos created in the state, what with the money power at hand that could woo legislators to an alternate party to bring down the Suresh Mehta government. This could then spread to other states. Heightening the first possibility is Gujarat Governor Krishan Pal Singh's sudden ill health shortly after he met Congress President P.V. Narasimha Rao in Delhi. It has kept the situation in limbo, opening the doors for horse trading.

No wonder the BJP's rapid reaction force has been working overtime in Gujarat. Well before the rally, Naidu and Kushabhau Thakre came in to coordinate the damage control exercise. When Thakre's blood pressure shot up, literally, Govindacharya took over. "We are keeping our flock together. We will not allow him (Vaghela) to re-enact another Khajuraho," said Govindacharya. This is an allusion to the 47 legislators Vaghela spirited away to Khajuraho last September, bringing down his opponent Keshubhai Patel's government. Vaghela's supporters have since been termed 'Khaj-urias' and the event has been listed as the blackest spot in the BJP's disciplinary record.

Efforts to stop Vaghela from toppling the government are in force on several fronts:

The BJP has taken advantage of this lack of focus to accuse Vaghela of "political confu-sion". The party is also trying to debunk his grassroots claim. Says VHP state General Secretary Pravin Togadia: "Where is his 80 per cent support? Of the 182 taluka panchayats, 154 are with the BJP. Of these only one has fallen. Of the 19 district panchayats, one fell because of BJP-Congress clashes. The six municipal corporations are still with us." 

On his part, Vaghela has made it clear that the target is the BJP, everywhere. He will be touring Uttar Pradesh. He has already drawn blood in Maharashtra by talking of meetings with the Shiv Sena chief Bal Thackeray and alliances with his party, which is the BJP's coalition partner. This was re-emphasised at Vaghela's rally when photostats of an editorial from the Shiv Sena's eveninger, Dopahar ka Saamna , were distributed. The editorial praised Vaghela and criticised the BJP leadership for comparing him with Chhagan Bhujbal, who defected from the Sena to the Congress and went on to be a minister.

In the effort to checkmate Vaghela, the BJP has also decided to take on the governor. After he announced his GJP, Parikh went to Governor Singh with a list of 43 MLAs instead of approaching the Speaker. Singh left for Delhi, met the Congress president and continued to withhold the names mentioned in the list, only stating that it had a 'substantial' number of MLAs. "By saying this, the governor gave a signal," Mehta said at a press conference last week. "Unnecessary political confusion has been created, and people felt the government was in trouble. If the governor had a doubt he should have asked us to prove our majority on the floor of the House." Minutes after the press briefing, an aide whispered to Mehta that the governor had been hospitalised.

The drama then shifted to the Ahmedabad civil hospital where a medical checkup revealed that nothing much was wrong with the governor. The BJP traces his 'illness' back to the moment, hours earlier, when he was told that 21 MLAs were withdrawing from the Parikh list. They included 16 MLAs who had been paraded before him by revenue minister and party loyalist Ashok Bhatt. After a photo-verification of the new list, it is said the governor complained of a headache and 'uneasiness'.

In turn, the governor's health has left the BJP uneasy and on guard. Says Govindacharya: "If he publishes the list, they will be disqualified. It is a situation on hold because of the governor's ill health. Vaghela had a (plan) to destabilise the government in February, which failed. He is now reviving it." And the BJP is hoping that any such endeavour will meet with the same fate.