Sour Taste Of Friendship

AN opportunistic fight over spoils or a natural process of selection and distribution of tickets that precedes elections? Perhaps, the ramifications, this time around, run deeper: it is an electoral battle between front that has drawn regional forces to it like a magnet, and a national party that would try to avoid regional alliances. Just when everyone thought that the BJP-led coalition was cruising along fine, came the socialist bombshell. Defence minister George Fernandes’ plan to reunite the Janata Dal— minus Laloo Prasad Yadav and Deve Gowda and all without informing the BJP top brass— has not been taken too kindly by the ruling party, particularly by those close to L.K. Advani. But at the end of a series of parleys between allies led by Fernandes, and Advani and party president Kushabhau Thakre, it became clear that the dust was settling down.

Says BJP general secretary Narendra Modi: "We have a long history of alliances. What the media describes as tussle for power is actually a normal process of selection of seats which happens inside parties as well. In this case, we are dealing with allies. We are in a good position, politically speaking, and because of that there is no question of ditching our allies. That is our culture." That trait, he also claims, distinguishes his party from the Congress.

This restoration of balance is, however, not likely to be as smooth as the party would want people to believe. The Samata and the Lok Shakti-led front, which now includes the Janata Dal (JD), has made its intentions very clear. They want a stipulated  number of seats, in the process ensuring they remain the second most important bloc within the NDA.

Says Samata  general secre-tary Jaya Jaitly: "We’re seeking a maximum of 55 seats. This is about one-seventh of the total number of seats the BJP is contesting, and this despite having one-fourth of the total BJP vote." She insists this stand is "based on solid facts" and reels out statistics that, curiously, club votes polled by then antagonistic parties.

In Bihar, for instance, during the last elections the total BJP voteshare was 24.03 per cent. The total Samata-JD votes polled were 24.46 per cent. In Karnataka, the Lok Shakti-JD votes, put together, come to 33.19 per cent as against the BJP’s 26.95. "So, it is only fair that no one should try and play the dominant role and claim a disproportionate share of seats," adds Jaitly. "All this talk of George Fernandes wanting more clout and the fact that he has ambitions a re all bogus. They are aimed  at creating a rift within the NDA. We believe that a fair and an honourable seat-sharing arrangement must acknowledge that benefits are mutual, not one-way and not guided solely by the interests of the dominant party either at the national or state level." According to her, in the current circumstances there is no party which can possibly win an election on its own.

SAMATA Party spokesman Digvijay Singh too is livid: "The accusations against my party are re g rettable and mischievous. After all, what is the arg u-ment? Should all allies remain weak and vulnerable? Does it mean that allies cannot attempt consolidation? Such an impresscertainly suits the Opposition. The Samata-Lok Shakti-Janata Dal united formation impeccable secular credentials and fought for genuine social justice."

Well-placed Samata sources, however, that there has been definite resentment inside the party against Fernandes’ move to reunite the JD and make it a constituent of the NDA. The initial move took everyone by surprise, quite naturally so, because the new entrants into the fold were confirmed BJP baiters, particularly Sharad Yadav and J.H. Patel, who, just two days before merging with the Samata combine, had called the saff ron outfit the ‘cancer’ of Indian politics. BJP spokesperson Venkaiah Naidu more or less confirmed the rift when he said that while the question of accepting this front was under ‘active’ consideration, there was tremendous hostility to the move from the Karnataka unit the BJP, since most of its members have long political histories of fighting the state unit of the ruling JD.

The first JD casualty, I.K. Gujral, was the result of the haste with which a part of the party, jumped onto the NDA bandwagon. Gujral, who seemed more than keen to contest  from Jalandhar, the constituency which sent him to the 12th Lok Sabha, dropped out of the race when the Akalis decided to put up their own candidate. Party sources say Gujral’s fate was sealed when some Punjab-based BJP leaders in tandem with the Akalis impressed upon the leadership that the former prime minister   should not be given a chance this time because of his attacks on the government Parliament after the Pokhran tests. "It was Gujral’s attacks on the government, as a former PM, which opened the floodgates for all such criticism," points out a BJP leader.

But the fracas seems far from over. Says Sharad Yadav: "As far as I am concerned, I have joined Fernandes and Ramakrishna Hegde. The old Janata Dal is reunited."Ram Vilas Paswan also feels the same. However, how does he account for his earlier  attacks on the BJP as communalists? Argues Paswan: "That is a non-issue and I have been saying it for the past couple of years. There are no national issues. Only local issues. The T D P will oppose the Congress in Andhra. Mamata will oppose the CPI(M) in West Bengal and the Akalis will fight the Congress in Punjab because those are their local compulsions. Today 90 per cent of the former National Front (NF) is with the BJP. Are we saying that everyone is communal?" Similarly, says Paswan, his main enemy is Laloo Yadav and he is willing to tie up with anyone who can provide him with his ammunition. And what about the BJP fears of socialists creating trouble in the aftermath of elections? Reassures Paswan: "There is no question  of it. Once we have accepted Vajpayee as our leader, it stands that way." Hegde, meanwhile, has chosen to voice his dissent. He recently declared in Bangalore that  the BJP should notbe so ‘greedy’ when it comes to sharing seats.

Samata and JD leaders are citing last year’s voting patterns in specific contexts to buttress its demand that the new grouping be accepted within the NDA fold. They have pointed out that most of the seats won by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar during the last elections had very narrow margins, not taking into account the JD votes and some of its smaller unknown allies who had also polled sufficient number of votes. If that yardstick is anything to go by, the RJD appears to be heading for trouble. In addition, Paswan claims that the Yadav-Muslim combine of  Laloo Yadav, which has remained intact over the years, could come unstuck, that most of the minority institutions in Bihar are languishing and that the Muslims have seen through the RJD gameplan.

Laloo, on the other hand, is likely to use the Gaisal train accident to prove a point against his bete noire, Nitish Kumar. The latter’s offer to quit the Cabinet, which was accepted by Prime Minister Vajpayee on August 5, has been termed by the RJD boss as no more than a cheap stunt to augment his vote bank. For that purpose, Laloo decided to visit the accident site to prove that he is the man on the spot. Thrown into this is the symbol issue that is before the Election Commission. Both groups— Sharad Yadav’s as well as Gowda’s— claim the wheel as their own. Over the last week both groups have collected affidavits from members and presented it before the EC. But sources say that with both factions of the JD making conflicting  claims on the support they enjoy, the possibility of the symbol being frozen altogether appears pretty realistic. Paswan and Yadav have already complained to the EC that Gowda and his group had forged affidavits of some MPs and MLAs, leading to a close scrutiny of documents. Meanwhile, the N D A unity moves have drawn Opposition fire. Congress spokesman Kapil Sibal has termed the NDA a non-starter. He says, "If this is what is happening now, anyone can guess what is likely to happen after the polls are over." AICC general secretary Madhavrao Scindia says the new developments have left him astonished. "It is difficult to believe that the same leaders who were abusing the BJP being communalists and calling them-selves socialists are now hankering to join them. These people are more worried about saving their parlamentary seats, rather than any ideology."

Scindia, incharge of seat distribution in five states, says his party, on the other hand, is not looking at opportunistic alliances and claims the media is deliber-ately trying to underplay   the enthusiastic response that Congress leaders are getting. He cites the instance of Sonia Gandhi’s rally in Pune last week, which was a big hit despite inclement weather. But the electronic media had chosen to ignore it. Scindia predicts that Pawar will not be able to get more than five seats, even though he admits the Maratha strongman’s damage potential  vis-a-vis the Congress in states where it exercises clout. Some observers say the battle between the BJP alliance and the Congress reflects, at one level, a tussle fuelled by regional aspi-rations. The Congress, they say, is all for a strong Centre, best espoused in Sonia Gandhi’s dogged refusal to enter into too many alliances unless required. This means that the party seeks to go it alone, revive its organisational strength and form a government on its own steam. The BJP, only now emerging as a national party, wants to take regional parties along with it, its thinking fashioned by the theory that local parties emerged in the first place because of Congress mis-rule— ignoring satraps in the larger interests of a strong Centre.

The election campaign is going to be interesting. With new alliances in place or almost, former enemies would be campaigning with new friends while old partners may wash a lot of dirty linen. At the same time, politicians candidly admit that in their line of  business, the only thing permanent are interests, not friends, companions, comrades or enemies.