WHO will be the next vice-president? Seems a silly question to ask with political parties still to decide a) if one term is enough for Dr Shankar Dayal Sharma as president, and b) if his deputy K.R. Narayanan should take over. But two events last week signalled it may be time for some serious speculation.
First, Election Commissioner G.V.G. Krishnamurthy Seshaned parties not to issue a whip to elect the next president but to allow MPs and MLAs to vote as they want. And then, nixing Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda's reported reservations, Janata Dal stalwart V.P. Singh plumped four-square for Narayanan's elevation.
Krishnamurthy also did some loud thinking on a ceiling on expenditure to prevent votes-for-money and a TV debate of candidates to showcase their wares. But it was his call to depoliticise the poll (see inter -view) that set the cat among the pigeons.
So whose cause is he espousing? Why, and why now? The debate about the whip, in any case, is meaningless. Though the Tenth Schedule says members who defy the party whip can be disqualified, it's impossible to enforce it in a secret ballot presidential poll. So was he testing the waters for a surprise candidate? A rebel? Sharma himself?
It's too early to say—the poll process begins only on May 24—but Sharma may be inclined to have another go when his tenure ends in July. Two days after Krishnamurthy spoke out, The Statesman said: "Sharma not averse to second term".
Despite his fragile physique, Sharma has made frequent visits to Tirupati and Sai Baba's ashram. "How am I less active than other presidents?" he asked an aide recently. Despite his absentmindedness (he told Manisha Koirala that he knew her uncle, B.P. Koirala, Nepal's "chief minister", well) his secular, scholastic sheen is in place.
Also, Sharma is in the good books of the BJP: recall, he invited A.B. Vajpayee to form the government when the last poll yielded a hung Lok Sabha. So much so that at the swearing-in of the 13-day wonder, a Rashtrapati Bhawan official was heard asking: "Is this the start of his re-election campaign?" Gowda, the buzz went, could kill many birds by making Sharma the UF-Congress candidate. It would put the Left, plumping for Narayanan, in their place. And blunt the edge of the BJP, which boasts 11.33 lakh votes against the Congress' 11.12 lakh and can be a formidable force in a contest.
The president is elected indirectly by a complicated electoral college system involving all elected Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha and Vidhan Sabha members. The votes of MPs have five times more weightage than those of MLAs. So the more states the BJP is in power, the greater its say.
By projecting Sharma, Gowda reckoned he could get his back at Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) chief G.K. Moopanar, who had spoilt his plans to install Karnataka Governor Khurshid Alam Khan as president. Gowda's sancho panza C.M. Ibra-him had suggested that since the Prime Minister too was from the south, northerner Khan stood a better chance as a consensus man. But Moopanar declared that if Sharma was not willing to seek a second term, the TMC would support Narayanan.
But V.P. Singh's statement that parties should come to a consensus on Narayanan dashes the hopes of a third candidate (the Gowda camp had also suggested the name of Sitaram Kesri but the Congress chief shot down the suggestion). It also makes things very tough for Sharma.
So, Narayanan it's likely to be. Few parties want to be seen spoiling the chances of a Dalit. Not the Congress, K. Karunakaran's opposition notwithstanding. Certainly not the BJP, which has just arranged the unusual marriage of Kalyan Singh and Mayawati. And, of course, not the Left. Who, then, will fill in the vice-presidential slot?
Adept at living on the edge, issue by issue, constituents of the 13-party coalition want to cross the bridge only when they come to it. The vice-president's term will expire on August 20, and the notification will be issued only after June 22. (Unlike presidents, vice-presidents are elected by a direct vote of members of the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha.)
But this much is clear: the next V-P will almost certainly not hail from the south. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi, whose DMK is a key member of the UF, is non-committal: "It's too premature, let's get over the presidential election first."
Filmstar-turned-politico Raj Babbar, who has the ear of Defence Minister and Samajwadi Party boss Mulayam Yadav, suggests that after 47 years and 10 vice-presidents, it's time for a woman in the slot—an opinion that's gaining ground. What with the Women's Reservation Bill, the UF reckons it will be a nice token. Babbar has a name in mind but won't reveal it now.
A much-mentioned frontrunner is Najma Heptullah. The Rajya Sabha deputy speaker is a respected public figure and has been nonpartisan in handling House proceedings. She had been mentioned in the '87 and '92 vice-presidential stakes too, but not with the same intensity.
Trouble is, there may be opposition to having a Dalit and a Muslim as president and vice-president, a factor that affects former Supreme Court Chief Justice A.M. Ahmadi and Khurshid Alam Khan too. Heptullah's aides say she has Sharad Pawar's support, which means the Kesri and Rao factions can't be taken for granted. And, Gowda aides say he will not want to hand over both posts to the Congress.
Since the BJP is amenable to V.P. Singh's idea of electing Narayanan by consensus, some believe the party may want vice-pres-identship in return. The man being mentioned in party circles: Sikander Bakht.
Having its own man at the Rajya Sabha's helm may benefit the BJP at this juncture, and projecting a Muslim may win PR points, but propping up Bakht means sacrificing one of its few Muslim showpieces.
As for non-Muslims, there is Karan Singh, Andhra Pradesh Governor Krishan Kant, ex-Lok Sabha speaker Rabi Ray, and current Speaker P.A. Sangma. Kant, whose father was a close lieutenant of Lala Lajpat Rai, is too liberal for the BJP. Neither is he a big favourite of the TDP, another UF constituent. Dr Singh, on the other hand, has friends in every party, not least the BJP. But he's eyeing the big one. Once asked if he wanted to be vice-president, he said: "Who would make a better president than me?"
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