Shadow Boxing In The South

EVEN as the curtain came down on Act I of the current Jayalalitha-BJP pantomime, the curtain for Act II went up with minimalist ease. A two-hour meeting between the AIADMK supremo and Union defence minister George Fernandes late on the evening of August 14, was followed by a reshuffle involving 17 senior bureaucrats including revenue secretary N.K. Singh and finance secretary Montek Singh Ahluwalia—just a day after Enforcement Directorate chief M.K. Bezbaruah was abruptly transferred—Fernandes told the waiting media contingent outside Jayalalitha's Poes Garden residence: "The talks were positive but I will report them only to the prime minister." Senior AIADMK sources, however, continued to claim that all is not hunky dory yet—Jayalalitha is once again mounting pressure for the prosecution of Tamil Nadu chief minister M. Karunanidhi.

The transfers, according to a senior AIADMK alliance leader, followed a phone call that Fernandes made to Delhi from Jayalalitha's residence in Chennai. She, however, told Fernandes: "There is a deliberate double standard in the news you release in Delhi and what you say to me in Madras. You have created the illusion that I wanted all the transfers." The crib is clear: she may have demanded them but she is not going to stand for the BJP trying to paint her as the "unreasonable woman". She went on to taunt a hapless Fernandes: "Venkaiah Naidu (BJP spokesman) had projected to the media in Delhi that you have come on a private initiative (BJP sources in Delhi insist he was summoned) and not sent by the party. Then why have you come to discuss politics?"

Earlier, the BJP had breathed easy for a few hours in the lull between the two Acts, on the afternoon of August 13—after the AIADMK's allies unanimously authorised Jayalalitha to take the "appropriate decision and announce it at the appropriate time" regarding continuation of support to the A.B. Vajpayee government. But by evening, the ruling party was taking a much harder line—emphatically articulated by Union home minister L.K. Advani. For, Jayalalitha had made no statement indicating that a patch-up on the Cauvery issue had been effected. Moreover, she had told her allies to "be in Chennai after August 15 to attend any meeting at short notice". She spent the entire afternoon on August 14 closeted with astrologers pondering over her future course of action. The same morning, say sources, Advani told his colleagues in Delhi: "Though I still believe that the greater possibility is that she will not withdraw support, the crisis isn't over. She is very upset over the mileage Karunanidhi has got out of the Cauvery settlement and we should be prepared for any eventuality."

Jayalalitha's latest threat to review support had come two days after the prime minister and the chief ministers of the four southern states had worked out a negotiated settlement for the implementation of the interim award of the Cauvery Disputes Tribunal. Her demand was that the BJP should notify the original Cauvery draft scheme. Notwithstanding the threat, the BJP government notified the new scheme, presenting Jayalalitha with a fait accompli. But the bravado seemed to end there.

With danger lights flashing from Chennai, Vajpayee contacted Jayalalitha last week and sought an appointment for his emissary, Union defence minister George Fernandes, to apprise her of the situation. The last such meeting between Fernandes and the AIADMK supremo had been interpreted by some BJP supporters as implying that the party was not directly involved in pacifying Jayalalitha. And the former Tamil Nadu chief minister doesn't forget such things easily. So, this time around, she demanded that Fernandes must be accompanied by a senior BJP leader. Accordingly, Vajpayee despatched his former political advisor Pramod Mahajan along with the defence minister. However, from the moment they entered the drawing room of Jayalalitha's Poes Garden residence on August 12, the emissaries from Delhi were subjected to much humiliation.

Jayalalitha chose not to talk to the two leaders directly. Instead, she lambasted Fernandes on her intercom. "Why did you bring this other person (Mahajan) with you? Isn't he a friend of Murasoli Maran? Find out whether he lost the way to Gopalapuram (Karunanidhi's residence) and drifted to my place by mistake," she told Fernandes. The harangue didn't stop there. The Cauvery water settlement, she declared, was a deliberate move, brokered by Vajpayee, to make Karunanidhi a hero. She then questioned them on the media reports that some Sangh parivar elements had said the BJP would not "pacify her" any longer. She expressed her (very sarcastic) surprise that the two senior leaders had come to meet her despite the stated decision of the BJP not to "pacify" her.

It was obviously a bone-chilling experience for the two leaders from Delhi—though such summons and intercom lectures are not uncommon experiences for senior AIADMK leaders and its alliance partners. The duo by now were in no doubt what all this meant: Jayalalitha was poised to withdraw support to the Vajpayee government. They pleaded for a chance to meet her in person to talk about the importance of the closing ceremony of the 50th anniversary Independence Day celebrations. Of how it would be an insult for Vajpayee to be a caretaker prime minister on such a major national occasion. They also requested her to be a special guest at the Independence Day closing ceremony at Delhi. Jayalalitha's blunt retort: "Just after I announce my decision to pull out do you think that I should be part of the Independence Day celebrations! You cannot deceive me with such cheap tactics. I will not postpone my meeting with the other alliance parties."

Mahajan was admonished when he suggested that while her point was well taken, she should not impute some design by the ruling coalition to exclude her from the decision-making process. "What can you offer me now? With reference to Cauvery, it's a fait accompli. You want to rule with my support, but you want to enhance Karunanidhi's image. Why haven't you chargesheeted him so far in the Rajiv Gandhi assassination case? The ATR presented by your government is just an eyewash. I understand your diabolic designs."

THE 'meeting' between the prime minister's envoys and the AIADMK leader continued in this vein for 30 minutes: Jayalalitha staying put in her living quarters on the first floor of the house and the envoys sitting in the drawing room, talking to each other over the intercom.

 Stunned by the surreal setting, Fernandes and Mahajan legged it to the guest house where they booked in without meeting the press. From there, they tried to contact other allies of the AIADMK—the MDMK and the PMK. But MDMK leader Vaiko was away in Tirunelveli and PMK chief S. Ramdoss in Delhi. Following hectic parleys over the telephone by the 'duo from Delhi', Union petroleum minister Vazhapadi K. Ramamurthy and Ramdoss accepted the prime minister's invitation to meet him in Delhi on the evening of August 13. But insisted that some concessions be given to the AIADMK supremo before they call on him at 7, Race Course Road.

The concessions demanded included certain changes in the bureaucracy. As a signal of its intent, the Centre expedited the transfer of the Enforcement Directorate chief M.K. Bezbaruah (see box)—though the BJP has denied any link.The prime minister accepted these 'suggestions' made by Ramdoss and Ramamur-thy. The emissaries were asked to convey the "good news" to the AIADMK, and in return secure Amma's support.

On their second trip back to Poes Garden, around 5 pm on August 12, Fernandes and Mahajan were permitted to meet Jayalalitha "face-to-face". Though she did not promise anything in return, the AIADMK supremo was in a better frame of mind and this was interpreted as a "positive sign". The duo requested her to give the green signal to Ramdoss and Ramamurthy to meet Vajpayee. She agreed. The prime minister was told by Ramamurthy that the crisis had blown over for now. And that if the government expedited the bureaucratic transfers and expanded the cabinet at the earliest, it would face less problems.

By August 13, when the AIADMK alliance party meeting was held at Jayalalitha's residence, the PMK and MDMK representatives declared it wouldn't be politically wise to withdraw support from the Vajpayee regime. Their argument: the Congress party isn't raising the Jain Commission issue against the DMK. Ramdoss apparently made an impassioned plea to Jayalalitha against looking for an alternative government with the Congress heading it. "The Congress is not a reliable partner. Its history of ditching its allies is long. Let us continue with the BJP and get whatever we want. However, if you want to quit the Central government, then we will stand by you."

The only dissenting voice was that of Janata Party leader Subramanian Swamy who declared the time had come to pull down the BJP government. "I will talk to the Congress and promise to get you a honorable share in the decision-making arrangement of the new government," he offered. Interestingly, the Cauvery issue was not touched upon at all. After listening to her allies, Jayalalitha declared she would take the appropriate decision at the appropriate time. And thanked the other leaders for giving her the power to decide on behalf of the alliance.

As the meeting in Chennai concluded, some BJP leaders including party president Kushabhau Thakre were quick to express their "happiness at the satisfactory resolution of the crisis" to the media. But it was a shortlived joy. By evening the same day, wire agencies had flashed the news of Bezbaruah's transfer but there was still no word of reassurance from Jayalalitha.

IN a more hands-on approach, Advani insisted that the announcement of any other bureaucratic transfers should be made only after Jayalalitha makes up her mind, say BJP sources. "As it is, we had planned a major bureaucratic reshuffle and Cabinet expansion in the week after August 15. Advaniji was clear that we should stick to that schedule if all is well. But if there is an adverse development, then naturally we will not do anything till we have proven our majority," says a Union cabinet minister.

That was the stick. The carrot was more apparent by August 14: "The decision on the Cauvery award is final, but it is, after all, only an interim award and Jayalalitha's genuine reservations can be addressed at the time of formulating the final settlement," was the official BJP line. The BJP leaders also claimed to be "hopeful". And at the party press briefing, Naidu went out of his way to accommodate Jayalalitha's protests, announcing that the defence minister was in Chennai yet again to iron out difficulties with the AIADMK leader.

The same night saw the apparent capitulation of the 'Advani line'. The home minister's aides, however, insist that the series of transfers was not a case of Advani's "hard line being jettisoned" and emphasised that the move had his nod because Jayalalitha and Fernandes had had "a good meeting" and things were looking up. In fact, Advani told Outlook after the announcement of transfers that "the reshuffle was on the anvil and we have just gone ahead with a routine administrative matter. All other stories in this connection are speculative. There have been no demands from any quarter."

The looming shadow of Jayalalitha over the Vajpayee government, however, is unlikely to disappear in the days to come. Despite a senior BJP leader's assertion that "even if there is a problem and support is withdrawn by the AIADMK, it will leave us with 250-odd MPs—the same situation as after the announcement of the Lok Sabha results. We will still be the best bet to form a government. Don't forget that the situation now is not like it was in 1996 when blind anti-BJPism was the order of the day." A section of the BJP leadership also feels that the 'anti-Sonia as PM' sentiment in the Opposition—and even in the Congress—is one of the reasons why the Congress has not got its act together to form an alternative government. On the flip side, there is the fact that if the AIADMK does look like withdrawing support, an attempt will be made by the BJP to poach on the AIADMK's MPs, not to mention MPs owing allegiance to Amma's other allies.

Questioned on her repeated threats and subsequent retreats last week, Jayalalitha said: "How can you expect something to happen overnight? In boxing you don't deliver the knockout punch in the first round itself. Wait and see." The latent belligerence is easy to understand. The AIADMK leader is finding it difficult to keep her alliance partners together as their agenda is not in exact consonance with hers. The MDMK and the PMK are very unhappy with the Jain Commission report. And their known sympathy to the LTTE puts them a few light years away from the Congress. If the two parties act on their own, Jayalalitha's strength will be reduced to just 18—down from the alliance's 27. However, the MDMK and the PMK are also worried about their own future in state politics which is dominated by the two major Dravidian parties—the DMK and the AIADMK. PMK cannot align with the DMK as the former already has an alliance with the rebel PMK headed by Prof Dheeran, a sitting MLA. And the MDMK cannot even think about an alliance, as it would amount to going back to its parent party, tail tucked neatly between legs.

Jayalalitha, on her part, feels that the Congress may not accord her any special status if her strength is reduced to 18 in the event that she ditches the BJP. For, the country's oldest political party could muster the requisite support by roping in Mamata's Trinamul Congress, the National Conference, some elements of BJD and also try and break the Samata Party, possibly even the Lok Shakti. In that scenario, the 10 seats won by the DMK-TMC-CPI combine provide a solid bloc.

However, as a senior AIADMK leader says: "All these analyses are valid only till Amma takes a decision. When she finally takes the plunge, you will have to do a new analysis. She acts according to her whims. Do not rationalise it by endless analysis". Obviously, the voice of experience.