Sabre-rattling On Home Turf

PRIME Minister H.D. Deve Gowda lovestalking about his affinity with farmers. But the purpose of his July 27-28 visitto western Uttar Pradesh was certainly not to check on the farming brigade alone. All the while, he kept aneye on Lucknow where his defence minister, Mulayam Singh Yadav, was holding aparallel meeting. The development may not trigger an immediate crisis in the13-party United Front, but it's an indication of the tense undercurrents inthe two-month-old coalition Government over affairs in the nation's mostpopulous state.

For one, the dust kicked up by the Left parties over the appointment of thecontroversial Romesh Bhandari as Uttar Pradesh governor is yet to settle. TheLeft is angry that Gowda didn't take Home Minister Indrajit Gupta intoconfidence before making the decision. Gowda's defence is that thetransfer of Bhandari fromGoa didn't merit consultations. Butwith there being no provision fora governor to be transferred, the Leftparties are understandably wary of "theclass enemy singularly responsible forthe Left's defeat in Tripura".

Mulayam did not object to Bhandari's appointment, made as it was on the eveof the assembly elections, but he was definitely not too pleased about UnionCivil Aviation Minister and Gowda's Janata Dal aide C.M. Ibrahim's talkswith Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leaders Kanshi Ram and Mayawati to explore seatadjustments for the upcoming assembly polls. Especially since he was kept in thedark. This was trespassing on home turf and an unwelcome prospect.

All the more because the BSP, in league with the BJP, hasbeen pressing for Mulayam's dismissal on the basis of the Ramesh ChandraCommittee report which holds him and his followers responsible for the June 1995 assault onMayawati.

Says Mulayam: "The BSP has a one-point programme—todefeat the Samajwadi Party and help the BJP—whereas our aim is to defeat theBJP at any cost." Mulayam has enough following in his home state to veto analliance with the BSP. Also, the Samajwadi Party (SP) with its 17 MPs is a signifi-cant component of the present Government and cannot be ignored. The LeftFront, particularly the CPI(M), made it clear to Gowda that the UF should notopt for a tie-up with the BSP at Mulayam's expense.

The proposed seat-sharing formula—that the BSP would leave125 to the Congress and offer 50 to the JD, reducing its own target-seats to 250in the 425-strong assembly—was acceptable to all. But the deal fell throughbecause the BSP, in return, wanted Mulayam out. Gowda, keeping in mind the Left'sweakness for Mulayam, retracted. This, after Ibrahim completed the groundwork for the seat adjustments. In fact, during the July 25 steering committee meeting, Gowda willingly entrusted the responsibility for future dialogues with the BSP to West Bengal Chief Minister Jyoti Basu and CPI(M) General Secretary Harkishan Singh Surjeet.

Gowda is left with little choice. He must send a message that all is well in the UF and its relations with Mulayam, especially on the eve of crucial assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, which will have a direct bearing on the Government in Delhi.

But it's truce only for the moment. For as soon as the selection process begins, the Samajwadi Party and the Janata Dal are bound to clash over nominations. In the Lok Sabha election, the SP had secured 21 per cent of the votes followed by the JD's five per cent, the Left parties fared well in areas and the Congress (Tewari) was more or less content to go Mulayam's way. This time round, for the SP, the only major force to reckon with is the Janata Dal.

On another front, the BJP—as also the Congress-BSP alliance—knows thatthe surest way to take one step forward to Delhi is by weakening the UF, andthat if Mulayam Singh Yadav's party takes a beating in Uttar Pradesh, the goalwould be nearer. This perhaps explains the desperate attempt of Atal BehariVajpayee, leader of the Opposition, to have the Ramesh Chandra Committee reportplaced before the Lok Sabha, though it had been submitted to the stategovernment on July 5 last year.

Vajpayee's move is all the more curious because this was anadministrative inquiry which had nothing to do with the Centre. According toparliamentary conventions, the Cen-tre or state governments can only tablereports of inquiry commissions constituted under the Commission of Inquiry Actwithin six months of its submission. To top it all, Deputy Speaker Suraj Bhanurged the Government to allow the tabling of the report.

Claims Mulayam: "The report was biased. None of thoseaccused were called for a hearing." Many SP leaders, including Mulayam,have already been chargesheeted in the case in a separate investigation by thestate CID and are due to appear before the Allahabad High Court.

Says a veteran MP: "If Mulayam wants to own up moralresponsibility and quit, it is up to him. But the deputy speaker and Vajpayee'stactics may open up an unpleasant and controversial chapter in parliamentaryhistory with such cases becoming the order of the day."

 Mulayam has nothingto worry about the BJP crusade against him as his sole politics at the moment isto project himself as the only leader of the anti-BJP front. And such a tiradeby the BJP only suits him.

But what does not suit him is the prospect of a ganging-up of all non-Left political forces under various combinations—against Mulayam. While the Congress seems totally dependent on the BSP and is a prisoner of the dictates of the senior ally, the BJP will encourage this scenario as it will ensure its victory in the event of a triangular fight. That is why Mulayam is calling a truce—at least till the Uttar Pradesh elections are over.