Amarnath, a revived pro-azadi lobby, no wonder Valley voters are not enthused
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This time the BJP is fielding 63 candidates—37 in Jammu and 26 in the Valley. The saffron party is unlikely to make any inroads in Kashmir but it hopes to snatch away seats from the Congress tally of 15 in Jammu. The emergence of the Amarnath Sangharsh Samiti, which led the agitation for restoration of land to the Amarnath Shrine Board, has further dented the Congress's prospects. Though the samiti is not contesting the elections, it is appealing to voters to support the BJP. But in the 13 seats in Jammu's Muslim-dominated districts of Doda, Poonch and Rajouri, it will be a straight contest between the NC and the PDP. So any new government will be dominated by either of these two key players from the Valley. The Congress role, on the other hand, will be defined by the number of seats it wins. In 2002 it secured 20 seats, five of them in the Valley.
Though poll boycott cries rend the air and a low voter turnout is likely, many believe the NC has a "definite edge", given the PDP's tacit approval to the transfer of 100 acres forest land to the Amarnath board. In fact, the NC hopes to improve its tally from 28 seats in the last polls. "Even if we fail to win a majority (44 seats), we'll still form a government with Congress support. After all, we extended support during the trust vote in Parliament," says a senior NC leader.
In its bid to give legitimacy to the polls, the government has planned them in seven phases. It has also mixed the low-turnout constituencies of Kashmir with Jammu and Ladakh divisions. "It has been obviously done to ensure that the combined turnout in each phase is respectable," a senior official in J&K's information department told Outlook. He admitted that the turnout in Srinagar, which is scheduled to go for polls on the last phase on December 24, would be a huge embarrassment for the government as the separatists have called for a 'Lal Chowk Chalo' on that day.
In fact, even though there has been a crackdown on the separatists—Yasin Malik, Shabir Shah, Nayeem Khan and Asiya Andrabi have all been arrested— the boycott's appeal seems to be gaining ground. Says Hurriyat chairman Mirwaiz Umer Farooq: "The government of India claims to uphold democratic values, but it arrests us, prevents us from launching a peaceful anti-poll campaign. We'll not be cowed down by the crackdown, we'll campaign against an election being held with 7,00,000 soldiers."
Such boycott calls are not new in the Valley. Neither are allegations of state rigging. Poll credibility rests on how democratic the process is. In Kashmir, the separatists will see a low turnout as victory for the pro-azadi lobby.