Rajasthan

Rajasthan

MainPage ! SurveyHighlights And Methodology
Delhi ! Madhya Pradesh ! Chattisgarh

Votingintention and seat forecast for coming Vidhan Sabha elections

Party

Actual vote in1998 (%)

Voting intentionfor 2003 (%)

Swing

(%)

Actual number ofseats in 1998

Projected numberof seats for 2003

BJP

33.9

36.4

+2.5

33

67

INC

45.2

40.7

--4.5

153

113

Others

20.9

22.9

+2.0

14

20

Total

100

0

200

1. The reasons for intending to vote for a particular party

Respondents who had indicated aParty they would vote for in the coming elections were next asked to give their reasons of why they would votefor that Party. They were free to give one or more reasons.

The reasons given for voting for Congress and BJP are summarized inthe table below :

Congress -I

BJP

Base : Would Vote for.....

2982

2667

% saying:

%

Itcan ensure justice for poor

27

17

Preferthis party from the beginning

21

18

Itcan improve villages

16

13

Becauseof the leader of the party

13

17

Providefood during drought

11

1

Itwill solve state's problems

10

9

Doesdevelopment work

10

27% of the respondents who saidthat they would vote for the Congress say so because they feel that it is the party that ensures justice forthe poor and another 16% said it can improve villages.

17% of the respondents who saidthat they would vote for BJP would do so because of the leader of the party.

2.Important issues facing the State today

Respondents were asked to statethe three main issues facing the State today. A large number ofproblems were mentioned. The main problems mentioned by over 10%of the respondents were :

AllSample

Urban

Rural

Base : All respondents

7328

1891

5437

% saying..

%

Providingemployment opportunities

47

55

45

Water problem

44

33

48

Electricity / Powersituation

29

21

32

Improving roads inthe state

13

Poverty

12

10

13

Overall developmentof the State

10

14

8

Ascan be seen unemployment, water availability and electricity/power situation are the main concerns of thepeople of Rajasthan.

3. Whether Voted in 1998 Vidhan Sabha elections

The respondents were next askedwhether they had voted in the last Vidhan Sabha elections that were held in 1998.

All Sample

Urban

Rural

Base : All Sample

7328

1891

5437

% saying:

%

Yes

86

87

86

No

14

13

14

86%of the respondents in the sample claimed that they had cast their votes in the 1998 Vidhan Sabha Elections.

4. Party voted for in the 1998 Vidhan Sabha Elections Vs. Party intend to vote for now

Party voted forin the 1998 Vidhan Sabha Elections

Base : Claim to have voted

Congress (I)

BJP

in 1998 for ..

3025

2183

Party intend to vote now

% saying:

%

Congress - I

81.2

5.9

BJP

11.2

88.3

Others / INDP

2.9

2.0

Don’t know / Can’t say

4.6

3.6

11.2% of the respondents in thesample who claimed to have voted in favour of Congress (I) in the last Vidhan Sabha Elections have said thatthey will vote for BJP this time. Where as only 5.9% of thosesaid they had voted for BJP now intent to vote for Congress (I).

5.Reasons for Shifting away from Congress (I)

Those said that they had voted forINC in 1998 but now intend to vote for BJP were asked the reasons for the change in their voting intentions.

The main reasons as mentioned bythe respondents were:

Base : those who claimed tohave voted for Congress (I) last time but now intend to vote forBJP

338

% saying…

%

It can maintain lawand order (BJP)

30

Keep promises (BJP)

10

It can bring downcorruption / reduce corruption (BJP)

9

It will solvestate's problems (BJP)

9

Because of theleader of the party (BJP)

8

As can be seen from the abovetable, it is mainly that BJP is seen as a party that can maintainlaw and order and party that keeps its promises that hasattracted people to BJP away from the Congress.

6. Performance of Ashok Gehlot as the Chief Minister of Rajasthan

Respondents were next asked torate the performance of Ashok Gehlot of Congress (I) as the Chief Minister during his 5 year tenure inRajasthan. Responses are as mentioned below:

AllSample

Urban

Rural

Base : Allrespondents

7328

1891

5437

% saying..

%

VeryGood

14

15

14

Good

29

30

28

Average

27

28

27

Poor

20

18

21

VeryPoor

6

4

7

Don’tKnow / Can’t Say

4

5

3

Meanscore (out of 5)

3.24

3.33

3.22

43% of the respondents have ratedthe performance of Sh. Gehlot as the CM of Rajasthan as good to very good compared to 26% who rated it as‘poor/very poor’. The mean score of 3.24 out of 5.00 indicates an above average rating of the govt.

7.Main achievements of Ashok Gehlot

Allthose respondents who had rated the performance of the CM in the past five years as very good or good, were asked the reasons for the same. The responses were:

Base: All thosewho rated performance of CM as very good or good

3111

%saying:

%

Provideadequate drought relief

69

Improvedroads in the state

27

Hasdone a lot for overall development of the State

24

Hassolved the water problem

21

ProvidedEmployment opportunities

16

Hasreduce poverty levels in the State

15

Providedbetter education

14

Hasimproved electricity / power situation in the State

12

The main reason (69%) for rating Sh. Gehlot as good or verygood is that he had provided adequate drought relief to the people in the state.

8.

Main failures of Ashok Gehlot

Allthose respondents who had rated the performance of the CM in the past five years as poor or very poor, wereasked the reasons for the same. The responses were:

Base:All those who rated performance of CM as poor or very poor

1960

% saying:

%

Has not providedemployment opportunities

36

Has not done enoughfor overall development of the State

32

Has not improvedelectricity / Power situation in the state

27

Has not solved thewater problem

25

Did not providedadequate drought relief

17

Has not done enoughto reduce poverty levels in the State

16

Corruption hasgrown.

16

Has not improvedroads in the state

15

36% of the respondents feel thatSh. Gehlot has not done enough to provide employment opportunities in the state and another 32% said he hadnot done enough for the overall development in the state.

9.

Opinion on arrest of Praveen Togadia

Therespondents were asked for their opinion about the Sh. Gehlot’s action of getting Praveen Togadia arrestedfor distributing trishuls. The views of the respondents are mentioned below:

Base:All Respondents

7328

%saying:

%

AshokGehlot was right in getting Praveen Togadia arrested for distributing trishuls

33

AshokGehlot was not right in getting Praveen Togadia arrested for distributing trishuls

33

Don’tknow / Can’t say

34

Opinionwas divided on whether Sh. Gehlot was right or not right in getting Praveen Togadia arrested for distributingtrishuls.

10. Announcement of reservation for economically backward upper castes

The respondents were askedtheir opinion about the announcement of Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlotregarding 14% reservation for economically backward Brahmins and Rajputs in Government jobs.. The viewsof the respondents are mentioned below:

Base:All Respondents

7328

%saying:

%

Itis a serious effort towards reducing inequality in reservation of certain sections of society

29

Itis just a political gimmick considering the coming elections in the state

45

Others

25

Don’tknow / Can’t say

1

45%of the respondents feel that the announcement is just a political gimmick considering the coming elections inthe state whereas, 29% felt it was a serious effort in reducing inequality among certain sections.

11.

Opinion on the Parivartan Yatra by Vasundhara Raje

Therespondents were asked their opinion about the recent Parivartan Yatra undertaken by Vasundhara Raje. Theviews of the respondents are mentioned below:

Base:All Respondents

7328

%saying:

%

Itis a serious effort by Vasundhara Raje to understand the issues concerning the people of Rajasthan

30

Itis just a political gimmick considering the coming elections in the state

47

Don’tknow / Can’t say

23

47% of the respondents feel thatthe Parivartan Yatra by Ms. Raje is just a political gimmick considering the coming elections in the state andanother 23% did not comment.

12.

Most capable of being the next CM of Rajasthan

The respondents were askedwho as per their opinion is the most capable of being the next Chief Minister of Rajasthan. The views of therespondents are mentioned below:

Base: AllRespondents

7328

% saying:

%

Ashok Gehlot

43

VasundharaRaje

32

Girija Vyas

2

Gulab Chand Kataria

2

Lalit Kishore Chaturvedi

1

Bhanwar Lal Sharma

1

43%of the respondents feel that Ashok Gehlot of Congress(I) is the most capable of being the next ChiefMinister of Rajasthan compared to 32%, who felt Vasundhara Raje was the most suited.

13a.Reasons for preferring Ashok Gehlot as CM

Respondentswho had indicated Ashok Gehlot as being the most capable of becoming the CM of Rajasthan were next askedto give their reasons for preferring him. They were free to give one or more reasons.

Base: Thosepreferring Ashok Gehlot as next CM

3163

% saying:

%

Done developmentwork / good work

28

Provided adequaterelief during draught

25

Help the poorpeople

24

He is honest /clean image

16

Good performance oftrack record

15

He is a Popularleader

11

28% of those whohad mentioned Ashok Gehlot as the most capable of becoming the next CM of Rajasthan say so because of thegood development work done by him in the state followed closely by 25% who said that he had provided adequatedrought relief and 24% who said he had helped the poor.

13b. Reasons forpreferring Vasundhara Raje as CM

Respondents who hadindicated Vasundhara Raje as being the most capable of becoming the CM of Rajasthan were next asked togive their reasons for preferring her. They were free to give one or more reasons.

Base: Thosepreferring Vasundhara Raje as next CM

2374

% saying:

%

Done developmentwork / good work

20

She is honest /clean image

16

Help the poorpeople

14

She is a Popularleader

13

She is a candidatefrom BJP

12

Good performance oftrack record

10

36% of those whohad mentioned Vasundhara Raje as the most capable of becoming the next CM of Rajasthan say so because ofher honest/clean image and the good development work done by her in the state.

List of Assembly Constituencies covered in Rajasthan

AC

NO.

ASSEMBLYCONSTITUENCY

PARLIAMENTARYCONSTITUENCY

1

BHADRA

GANGANAGAR(SC)

7

KESRISINGHPUR(SC)

GANGANAGAR(SC)

10

PILIBANGA

BIKANER

16

DUNGARGARH

CHURU

17

SUJANGARH(SC)

CHURU

27

NAWALGARH

JHUNJHUNU

34

DANTA– RAMGARH

SIKAR

39

AMBER

DAUSA

42

JOHRIBAZAR

JAIPUR

48

PHAGI(SC)

JAIPUR

51

BANDIKUI

DAUSA

58

BEHROR

ALWAR

63

ALWAR

67

KATHUMAR(SC)

BHARATPUR

72

BHARATPUR

79

BARI

BAYANA(SC)

85

GANGAPUR

SAWAIMADHOPUR(ST)

93

MALPURA

TONK(SC)

94

KISHANGARH

AJMER

100

MASUDA

AJMER

103

HINDOLI

KOTA

105

PATAN(SC)

KOTA

118

JHALRAPATAN

JHALAWAR

120

DAG(SC)

JHALAWAR

122

GANGRAR(SC)

CHITTORGARH

126

BADISADRI

CHITTORGARH

128

KUSHALGARH(ST)

BANSWARA(ST)

134

CHORASI(ST)

BANSWARA(ST)

137

LASADIA(ST)

SALUMBER(ST)

141

NATHDWARA

UDAIPUR

148

GONGUNDA(ST)

SALUMBER(ST)

151

MANDAL

BHILWARA

157

BANERA

BHILWARA

165

SUMERPUR

PALI

166

BALI

PALI

171

RANIWARA

JALORE(SC)

173

JALORE(SC)

178

GUDAMALANI

BARMER

180

SHEO

BARMER

186

LUNI

JODHPUR

192

JAYAL(SC)

BIKANER

200

MUNDWA

NAGAUR

MainPage ! SurveyHighlights And Methodology
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Rajasthan

A reverse swing notwithstanding, the Congress is likely to retain its government.

Base:All those who rated performance of CM as poor or very poor

% saying:

Gulab Chand Kataria

Lalit Kishore Chaturvedi

Bhanwar Lal Sharma