Poll Pangs

CONGRESS president Sitaram Kesri loves keeping the teetering United Front on edge. This time, the nudge was rather sharp. In fact, former prime minister H.D. Deve Gowda put the UF's dilemma over the Congress Working Committee's (CWC) latest—and most strongly-worded—threat to withdraw support rather bluntly: "We must react to it properly or not react at all". But the UF couldn't afford to do either. "If we don't react, it means we are accepting Congress charges. If we do, it might aggravate tensions," said a Janata Dal leader.

Much against Gowda's wish, the UF chose not to join issue with the Congress. It opted for a feeble denial of the Congress charges of non-performance, typical of prime minister I.K. Gujral, who assured his coalition that he and Kesri had a perfect understanding. Despite a UF leader's claim that "Kesri will withdraw support only when he is ready to face elections and there is no sign of that", the wording of the September 27 CWC resolution, backed by an action plan intended to "bring back Congress to power", has engendered unease.

The CWC resolution, a senior Congress leader admitted, was necessary to palliate sections of the leadership which fav-our elections as well as disgruntled workers. Congress and UF members acknowledge that a mid-term poll is inherent in the situation. Leaders like V.B. Reddy and Madhavrao Scindia see no point in postponing the inevitable.

The pro-poll Congress lobby feels the situation is unlikely to improve in the next year or so and in fact, matters could get worse as it shoulders the blame for the UF's non-performance. Also, party workers are angry. A Maharashtra MP admitted: "A large number of workers are planning to join the Shiv Sena. Even Sudhakarrao Naik (former Maharashtra chief minister) has been speaking to Bal Thackeray...similarly, in Andhra Pradesh, our workers cannot reconcile the dichotomy between peaceful co-existence with the Telugu Desam at the Centre and opposition in the state".

The expectation, say younger leaders, is that the Jain Commission report will provide a flashpoint and set the stage for withdrawal of support. "We will insist on the report being tabled in the winter session of Parliament; the UF has no choice but to comply," said Rajya Sabha MP Ajit Jogi. Banking on preliminary reports which indicate that senior members of the UF have been indicted by Justice Milap Chand Jain, the pro-election MPs insist that the Congress will be able to capitalise on the report by demanding action against those named.

This, in conjunction with "the Sonia factor", would boost the party's prospects. The Congress is confident that Sonia Gandhi, who is taking a keen interest in party affairs, will campaign. "She is not seeking any post in the government or the party but is only concerned with preserving the legacy of her husband and mother-in-law. That message will go down very well with the people," they insist. The tacit threat that the UF might rake up the Bofors probe in retaliation to the demand for tabling the Jain commission report is dismissed by a JD MP, who says "that would be playing into the hands of the BJP. Who benefits most from Bofors, if Sonia decides to campaign? Not the UF, but the BJP".

WITH the UF perceived as directionless and discredited because of the price rise and the BJP in confusion in the states, the time is ripe for elections, Congress leaders feel. Regional alliances, particularly in the north, will also boost Congress prospects, they point out. In UP and Bihar, the alliances are likely to be tacit, as neither the Rashtriya Janata Dal nor the Samajwadi Party—its potential allies—would like to alienate the Muslim vote through an association with the Congress. Besides, open alliances between the Congress and its regional allies would only serve to drive the BJP closer to the BSP in UP and the Samata Party in Bihar.

The Congress is planning to woo the minorities aggressively. For the first time, it acknowledged in its action plan that "the alienation of the minorities from the Congress after the Babri demolition has been practically total". Says Kerala MP Vyalar Ravi: "We have tried to undo the damage by removing the person (Narasimha Rao) who was responsible. Our leaders have expressed regret. But we need to convince the people".

Keeping these factors in view, a fund collection exercise has begun, a Congress leader said. The pro-poll lobby feels that if the party waits for a numbers-based assessment, it will never reach the "magic" figure. They would prefer to gamble on a conducive atmosphere and go for it. But Kesri is unconvinced. "We are not an adventurist party," says CWC member Pranab Mukherjee. "We must make a hard assessment...clearly, our basic problem is UP, Tamil Nadu and Bihar. We must delink provincial and national issues if we hope to do well".

He insists there is no immediate threat to the UF. "There were no new points in the resolution, only the wording was different." But he admits the Congress need to distance itself from the UF and to prepare a ground for an eventual withdrawal of support prompted the resolution: "People must see it was merited".

He acknowledges that the Congress has been at the receiving end. "When we decided to support the UF, we had thought communal forces would be isolated. Instead they have consolidated and forged alliances with the Akalis in Punjab, with Bansi Lal in Haryana, Lakshmi Parvathi in Andhra Pradesh, the BSP in UP, Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and some Tamil parties. Besides, the anti-Congressism in the UF has become pronounced. The very people who claim to be against the BJP are abusing us." Says Ravi: "The government should not take the Congress for granted because of the BJP." The Congress dilemma at the Centre is reflected in Gujarat, says Mukherjee, where "our people don't want chief minister Shankersinh Vaghela, but they don't want the BJP to come. The objective of getting Vaghela was to isolate the BJP. Unfortunately, that assessment has not been borne out and now they want to rectify the mistake".

One of the main points in its trenchant criticism of the UF is its failure to set up a coordination committee. UF convenor Chandrababu Naidu had assured the then president, S.D. Sharma, that such a mechanism would be set up to ensure the smooth functioning of the government, Mukherjee points out. But Naidu says the promised coordination mechanism is currently represented by Gujral and Kesri. "If they think more people are needed, let them do it". The Congress maintains that it has a list ready and it is the UF which is dilly-dallying. As for the CWC resolution, he dismisses it, saying, "Kesri's threatening withdrawal everyday, then he is changing his statement the next day".

Given the apprehension in the UF, it is hardly surprising that Gowda has attracted flak for his public Congress-bashing which outdoes even the Left. "He should be stopped but the Left is protecting Gowda and is preventing Gujral from asserting himself against him," says JD MP P. Kodandaramaiah. Naidu feels that since Congress is supporting the UF, "everybody should exercise restraint. I have told my party to be cautious".

A member of the steering committee says fatalistically: "All this is verbiage. Gowda attacks Congress and Congress attacks him. Whatever the Congress or the UF may say, Kesri could withdraw support any time, without warning."