Poll Mantra'04

March 2004, while releasing NCP manifesto
"The main issue is not Sonia’s foreign origin. The issue is to defeat communal forces and for that the NCP and Congress are coming together."

So why did attorney general Soli Sorabjee rush to file a special leave petition in the Supreme Court to regulate advertisements that attack political leaders at a personal level? The government’s anxiety stems from a no-holds-barred sally against Vajpayee that sneaked into print and air last week. Apparently, Vajpayee was most upset by two ads—one has him as a British informer, another shows him as a mask which, when removed, reveals the face of Godse.

What is worse, inputs from the IB indicated that surrogate ads targeting Vajpayee were likely to get uglier. So, it was decided that an Andhra Pradesh High Court stay on banning political ads on TV had to contested.

Strangely, these ads came as a counter to a below-the-belt TV blitz attacking Sonia Gandhi and her foreign origin. When the go-ahead on releasing the Sonia ads was given to the Kamakshi Educational Trust, a Sangh parivar front outfit, no one expected a retaliation. But it did come: from the Sajhi Virasat Trust (SVT), with which journalist-activist Kuldip Nayar and Gandhian Nirmala Deshpande are involved. The SVT denies its involvement, though that does nothing to assuage a rattled BJP.

But what a U-turn! Only days ago, the party had ‘cautioned’ the EC to desist from regulating campaign issues. It had described as "ridiculous" the Congress protest to the EC about ads on Sonia Gandhi’s foreign origin. Then, Pramod Mahajan had preened that it was for "the parties to debate what issues were to be raised and for the people to decide what they would vote on."

Thus, Jogi could get his suspension (in the wake of the cash for MLAs scam) revoked on the grounds of expediency. CWC members (like Pranab Mukherjee) advised Sonia Gandhi to rehabilitate Jogi. They said if he were to float a regional party, he could seriously damage the Congress. Others (like Motilal Vora) said the party would lose its moral high ground if it brought Jogi back. Finally, the decision was taken by Sonia who has always had a soft corner for Jogi, one of her die-hard loyalists.

Has appointed 1.25 lakh teachers; recruited 40,000 jawans in police and Home Guard ranks, including 10,000 Urdu-speaking policemen; promised one hundred lakh new jobs saying in each village at least three people will get work; annual grant to the Urdu academy raised from Rs 20 lakh to one crore.

Uma Bharati, CM, MP

Around 27,000 government employees sacked by Digvijay Singh to be taken back; three hydel power units of Indira Sagar project on the Narmada to be commissioned to increase supply by 500 megawatts; four Hindu pilgrim centres to be designated ‘holy cities’—no eggs, meat or liquor; redressal camps at block and district levels.

For the Congress and the Left, long-term electoral trends from the eastern states—Jharkhand, Bengal, Assam, Orissa—and the Northeast make depressing reading. What was once its weak link, the BJP has slowly inched its way up in the voteshare since 1989, riding piggyback on regional parties like the AGP and Trinamool.

Of the 100-odd seats at stake in these states, the BJP’s tally has climbed from nine in 1989 to 36 in 1999—the voteshare zooming from a modest 1.7 per cent to 37.17. In contrast, the Congress voteshare has declined from 41.4 per cent to 13.29 in the same period. For the Left parties, it has gone down from 10.5 per cent to 7.

But now, BJP’s alliance with AGP is over in Assam and its Bengal ally Trinamool is a bit shaky. Can its rivals gain lost ground?