Poll-Inebriated State

The crowd at the Arts and Commerce College grounds in Dabhoi, about an hour south of Baroda, is getting a bit restless on this breezy, sunny day. Former BJP MP Bhavanaben Thakker is on the mike. “First it was 2G, then 3G..., and for anything you ask our prime minister Manmohan Singh, he only says ‘Haan ji, Madam ji’.” There is a titter of laughter in the audience of about five thousand, but it feels a bit tired, as though they have heard this before. They know who they have really come to hear, and Bhavanaben is only an opening act.

Suddenly, there is a buzz in the press section. Narendra Modi’s chopper has landed at the nearby helipad, and he should be here in about ten minutes. Ms Thakker carries on bravely, but people are now jostling towards the back of the ground as the pilot car and ambulance vroom in, followed by a column of dust-spewing suvs. All of a sudden, Modi jaunts on towards the stage. The crowd roars.

He looks a little flushed, even ruddy. Perhaps it’s a suntan lotion. Walking up the dais, the chief minister of Gujarat calmly examines the mass gathered in front of him, smiles at them, motions them to sit down, and begins slowly. “They say there is a BJP lehar in Gujarat, a wave. But,” he ups the tempo at this point, “I say there is a BJP aandhi (storm) here. And this aandhi will blow the Congress out of Gujarat from its roots for good.” He can barely finish the sentence as the crowd gets into a frenzy. “Soniaben came here and asked for your votes saying her sasu (mother-in-law) has come here. Her sasu has come here! So?” The crowd reaches a state of delirium. “Rahul Baba came here and said he will fulfil Mahatma Gandhi’s promise. Yes, he will certainly fulfil one of Gandhiji’s promises. After Independence, Gandhiji called all the Congress leaders and told them that now that their job was done, it was time to dismantle the party. Shriman Rahul will fulfil that promise of Gandhiji. He will make sure the Congress party is decimated.”

Modi has eight more rallies to address after this one. The speech is more or less the same at every rally: beginning with a full-on attack on the Congress and sarcastic potshots at Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi and Manmohan Singh, going on to talk about his development initiatives, spectacular growth and peaceful reign. It ends, almost always, with, “Yes, I don’t have a family. No son, no daughter, no brother, no sister. My family is the six crore people of Gujarat.”

A few youngsters are playing cricket on the roof of a building block next to the college ground. You can hear their shouts faintly each time Modi pauses for effect in his speech. Unlike the mesmerised crowds, the youngsters carry on with their game, unmindful of their chief minister speaking just 50 metres away.

***

“It is the Modi model of development,” says Ahmed Patel, political secretary to Congress president Sonia Gandhi, in his sprawling, finely manicured farm in Ankleshwar, midway between Baroda and Surat. “Just announce a few projects here and there, show favours to a select few business groups and keep trumpeting Gujarat is shining. It’s all mostly hype and people have begun to see through it.” Patel is here to coordinate, among other things, Sonia and Rahul’s last few campaign meetings. An unruffled and nonchalant Patel says he loves it here at his ancestral farm, growing sugarcane, millet and vegetables and will settle down here once he retires. How is the Congress campaign proceeding, how many seats does he reckon the party will win? “Well, if you ask me,” he replies, “I’ll say the next government.”

Extending a hand Rahul Gandhi greets women supporters at a rally in Sanand

It’s a confidence current Dabhoi MLA and legendary Congress leader Chimanbhai Patel’s son Siddharth Patel also reflects. His party is poised to come to power, he tells us over cups of homemade ice-cream in his rather modest house, a short drive away from the Arts and Commerce College. But who is the party’s chief ministerial candidate? Is he one? Patel dithers with the stock reply that the party always decides the leader after it has won with enough seats; the lack of a visible face does not matter to the voter as she is voting for the party. His reading is that the Keshubhai Patel factor will play a critical role in Saurashtra and hurt the BJP more than the Congress.

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We arrive in Rukdi, a tiny village in Dahod district, which has a sizeable tribal population. Jeeps and buses are lined up on either side of the road leading up to the dusty and undulating ground the panchayat holds its meetings on. Hundreds of men, women and children are also walking towards the ground. Then, as the vista opens up, you find thousands gathered there. The Congress organiser says there are 80,000 people, but there’s no way to verify this.

Rahul Gandhi is coming to address them. The piercing sound of helicopter blades, first in the distance and then just right above their heads, sends the crowd into a tizzy. Rahul Gandhi, in a spotless white kurta and trendy waistcoat with what seems like Worli stick paintings, runs up the stairs to the dais. He begins his speech with a story about Mahatma Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru in Ahmedabad. Soon, he moves on to Gandhi’s struggle in South Africa, how Nelson Mandela has said he owes his country’s liberation to Gandhi, how President Obama has said Gandhi is his idol. The crowds listen passively. They are equally unmoved as Rahul’s speech progresses to list his government’s achievements like the RTI; how Sam Pitroda, a Gujarati, was the reason everyone has a mobile phone in their hands today. What perks them up is when he mentions how the shining Gujarat of Narendra Modi has failed to give water for drinking and irrigation to the people of Dahod, when the mighty Narmada was running so close by. They nod in agreement when the Congress scion tells them that Modi’s development has benefited only a handful of rich people in the cities, not poor folk like them in backward areas. And finally, they go absolutely wild when Rahul steps down from the dais and goes to shake hands with the people.

***

As the campaigns of both the BJP and Congress come to a close in north Gujarat, the election process is already under way in the south. A day before polling, we met Shalini Agarwal, the young collector of the newly-formed district of Tapi. With 600 polling stations under her and about 3,000 officers, more than half security personnel, she seemed nervous, but didn’t expect any trouble on polling day.

Events prove her right; polling goes off largely peacefully in the first phase of Gujarat elections in Saurashtra and south Gujarat, however explosive the outcome. Voter turnout was a record 68 per cent, the highest ever in any election in the state, as 87 of Gujarat’s 182 assembly constituencies went to polls. That includes 48 seats in seven districts of Saurashtra, 35 in seven districts of south Gujarat and four in Ahmedabad district. The second phase is slated for December 17, while counting begins another three days later.

What will be the final tally? Driving from Baroda to Ahmedabad on the world-class expressway, we stop for tea where our taxi driver and the teashop owner get into a discussion about the polls. Is Modi coming back to power, we ask them. Both of them nod. Will he win more seats than the last time? Yes, of course, says our cabbie. Less, says the teashop owner. This is it, the pulse of the aam aadmi in Gujarat.