Other Hats

In the political history of contemporary India, it is not unusual for a ruling party, helmed by a popular prime minister, to face an electoral defeat in a state assembly election shortly after a Lok Sabha victory. Indira Gandhi had lost two Congress strongholds—Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka—in 1983 and subsequently her son, Rajiv Gandhi, who won a humongous mandate in 1984, got a drubbing in Haryana in 1987. Even the NDA government of Atal Behari Vajpa­yee had famously lost Delhi, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh in 1998 over the ‘onion crisis’ within a few months of having come to power at the Centre.

How is it, then, that the drubbing the BJP got in the recent Bihar assembly election is being seen as such a big blow to Narendra Modi?

Political analysts cite several reasons and explain why the results are being seen as a debacle for the BJP and more importantly, a major setback for the prime minister. Unlike his predecessors, both in the BJP and in the Congress, Narendra Modi had made himself the sole face of the party in all the five assembly polls it fought since the NDA came to power in Delhi in 2014. Of these, the BJP had won three states, but lost two—Delhi and Bihar. Therefore, it is natural that for both victory and defeat, Modi will be held responsible. The defeat in Delhi was stunning—it almost wiped out the BJP from the state. The beneficiary, however, was not only Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party; in its own way it also helped non-BJP opposition parties—which had till then been in a deep sulk, smarting from their near wipe-out in 2014—take heart.

But the defeat in Bihar is seen as politically more significant. It is not only the third-most populous state in the country, but also considered a highly politicised one located within the Hindi-heartland. The drubbing in Bihar, therefore, is a major rev­ersal for Modi’s political image. It also creates the space for the growth of a viable political alternative, where Nitish Kumar is seen to hold the potential for becoming the fulcrum of an emerging realignment bet­ween the non-BJP political parties.

Despite the setback in this high-stakes battle, Narendra Modi still has three-and-a-half years to go before he has to seek a fresh mandate in the next Lok Sabha election. Bruised leaders in the past have shown the ability to draw hard lessons from their setbacks to relaunch themselves with vigour into the political jungle. Can Modi do something similar? Can he regain his midas touch  to reconnect with the people—who had rallied behind him so recently, so spe­­ctacularly—with his promises to transform India by putting it back on the development track? Will he then show the political mettle and finesse in dealing with BJP hardliners—with a penchant for throwing beguiling obstacles in his path—to ensure that the two key planks of development and economic revival remains his main focus?

Opinion within the party is divided on how much the Bihar defeat has dented Modi’s gilded image. The fact that it has given voice to his political opponents within the BJP became evident from the statement issued by L.K. Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi, Shanta Kumar and Yashwant Sinha demanding accountability for the defeat. Indications are that it has also given the RSS an opportunity to clip Modi’s wings by pressuring his close confidant and BJP president, Amit Shah.

But others indicate that despite the dissenters’ exp­ected top billing in the media, Modi’s position within the party and the RSS remains unassailable. “There is no other face in the BJP now who can pose a serious challenge to Modi. He remains the best bet for the party,” they say.

It is also pointed out that after the party’s defeat in Delhi, Advani was prevented from writing a blog. He’s supposed to have been given an option: either he doesn’t write it, or presents it before the party for approval first. Advani forewent writing the blog rat­her than wait for the party’s—or, more pre­­cisely, Modi’s—approval. The Bihar defeat provided the opportunity to him and other senior leaders, disgruntled as they were with Modi’s style of functioning and their own abject marginalisation, to hit out.

Can this severe jolt to his soaring electoral ambition make Modi do some serious introspection?

“Self-reflection is not a trait that I will associate Modi with,” says a political obs­erver from Gujarat. “In the past 15 years of my experience of having seen him in action in the state, I don’t think he is capa­ble of doing any such thing.”

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But Modi perhaps needs to surprise his detractors by doing some serious introspection and a course correction to ensure that he returns to concentrate on his job as the premier with the confidence of the people, something he seems to have lost. After speaking to a host of political analysts, party leaders and observers, Outlook has come up with 10 things that the prime minister can well do to reboot himself. Maybe Modi will heed the proffered advice and reinvent himself. Perhaps he will conti­nue to steamroll in his inimitable way. The crisis that he faces, within and without, has to be dealt with firmly. We only hope to see a PM who goes back to the drawing board to follow a path of long-due reforms that would hopefully create jobs by reviving the economy. A policy to pursue sta­­bility in India and in its neighbouring countries is paramount too. Modi would do well not to further aggravate his own and his party’s crisis by hitting out at India’s secular social fabric in fits of controlled rage.

10 things Modi can do to reboot himself

1 Play as a team
The PM as the all-seeing, all-controlling CEO is gobbledygook. In a complex, parliamentary democracy, no one man can do it all. India is not Gujarat. As the “first among equals”, Modi needs to run the government in consultation with his cabinet and take every minister along, instead of centralising power and decision-making to the extent that Union home minister Rajnath Singh doesn’t know why home secretary L.C. Goyal was removed. Stop bypassing min­­isters and partymen. Consult all, esp­­eci­ally your rivals. Build consensus. Give true meaning to the cliche “collective responsibility” to make policies more effective.

2 Build a new team
Three below-par budgets have showed that Arun Jaitley’s main strength is not in finance, and Modi’s chief perception problems have all got to do with money: dal prices, GST, black money, retrospective taxes, etc. Explaining Smriti Irani’s presence (or Mahesh Sharma’s) will always be an embarrassment regardless of their loyalty to you or the Sangh parivar. Ergo: Modi’s team needs fresh blood, urgently. Loading the cabinet with greenhorns may have made sense 18 months ago, not now. Look beyond the party to enlarge the talent pool, give ministers space to work, and stop micro-managing to avoid policy paralysis.

3 Reach out to seniors
Modi’s derisive distrust of party elders has gone on for too long. Imagine L.K. Advani not being invited for the Eme­rgency’s 40th anniversary fete. After bec­oming PM, despite their best efforts, he has little to prove to him. It’s time for detente. Instead of painting himself as a Mr Know-it-all and painting himself into a corner with each setback, there is much to be gained by tapping into their wisdom and experience in running Parliament and running government, both of which go hand in hand. Having won—and having lost—elections, they have the equanimity to read the pulse of the common man and riv­als better than Modi and his confidants.

4 Reach out to opponents
True, Modi came to power promising a “Congress-mukt Bharat”. But with just 44 seats, Sonia Gandhi has shown it is not going to be a cakewalk. Modi’s contempt for the Congress, which he screams at even from foreign shores, must stop. The BJP needs people who can talk the language of rapprochement, not brazenness. Get off the high moral horse, pick up the phone and talk to rivals, negotiate, persuade—if you want to get things done. Nobody is obliged to you merely because you won 282 seats. Remember, Rajiv Gandhi had 400-plus and look where he ended up. Mend fences before it starts eating the crop.

5 Draw the line
The RSS may think it is payback time for putting Modi in power, but the PM needs to draw the tramlines on what he will tolerate. Or not. Modi cannot be singing in praise of FB and Tesla and yet be surrou­nded by saffron Luddites who scream that India had social media and electric cars 5,000 years ago. Remember: Christianity and Islam are larger religions than Hin­duism. Pet RSS issues, like beef bans, love jehad, minority population, or conversions, can have far-reaching impact across the world and will impact his pet theme: gro­wth, development, investment—‘sabka vikas’. Time to be Vajpayee minus the cow.

6 Hit the ground
Raj Thackeray is right, Modi is travelling so much that in ‘Bajrangi Bhaijaan-II’, Salman Khan may have to reunite him with us. Jokes aside, no ‘chaiwallah’ can afford to lose touch with his trusted consumers, ie resident Indians. Yes, we know that he can wow the world with words, but the time to say thank you to his NRI bhakts is over. People are adding up dress changes and grand announcements in the 30 foreign trips so far and the sums don’t look great. The PM needs to stay home, roll up his sleeves, and sit on the drawing board longer, if only to disprove critics that Gujarat could have been a success even without him.

7 Give social peace a chance
Last year’s win convinced some that Muslims had joined Modi’s bandwagon but subsequent events, including his ine­xplicable reluctance to unequivocally condemn the killing of Mohammed Akhlaq, have only strengthened the view that a leopard never changes its spots and that a surcharged Sangh is thinking of an India minus Muslims—and that Modi is facilitating them achieve it. But can Modi continue to encourage policies that isolate 170 million people? What if, as Arun Shourie said, 170 looked to the ISIS for succour? Making India safe for Dalits, tribals and minorities is not a favour Modi is extending them; it is his duty.

8 Think out of the box
In 18 months, Modi has managed the impossible: he has pissed off the suits for his government’s lethargy and, at the same time, he has been labelled a suited-booted man by Rahul Gandhi for pandering to them. Only one of them could be true. But what has stopped the PM from doing something, anything, that the Congress hasn’t done before? How about a dramatic new portfolio of the kind we haven’t heard bef­ore? Not all legislation requires Parliament’s OK. And there is no ban on thinking fresh. Yet, all we have got so far is piecemeal tokenism. India didn’t vote for the status quo, or status quo ante.

9 Love thy neighbour
For all the oohs and aahs across the globe, India’s foreign policy in its neighbourhood is a lot of boo-boos. And we aim to be a superpower in league with China. The confrontational head constable app­roach from the PMO and national security advisor Ajit Doval, overlooking the external affairs ministry, is not going to convince anybody that we are in it for the long run. The PM will have to take urgent steps to pick up the strands and rework his neighbourhood policy, be it ties with Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Maldives or Sri Lanka. Unless there is peace and stability in other South Asian nations, no meaningful progress can be made on growth and development within India.

10 Rebuild the party
India is a nation in a state of permanent election. At any given point of time, a state or two is going to the polls, and thank god for that. In just these 18 months, Modi has faced five state elections so far—winning three and losing Delhi and Bihar. In the next 3.5 years, he will win some more and lose a few. Or vice versa. But the PM cannot be the chief campaigner and let his image be affected every few months. The BJP needs to build leaders and a mechanism so that the PM can carry on with his onerous job. Modi can remain a star campaigner but if he continues to be the sole campaigner, if he is always looking at the scorecard, governance will suffer.

And one bonus point: be human, stay humble. Indians aren’t unreasonable people. They know what Modi is up against. They can wait, they have waited for 68 years, and they will wait some more. But show them that when you make a mistake, you are willing to correct it instead of seeking to brazen it out. Show them that you do not just wake up angry. Show them that you have a heart large enough to accommodate all—and every point of view, especially if goes against your point of view. Break the static, break the silence. It’s time to be prime minister of the country, not just the 31 per cent who voted for you.

By Pranay Sharma and Bula Devi