Orissa

Orissa

Main Highlights:

BJD is likely to do well due to positive perception about its Govt. and the NDA Govt. at Centre.
Naveen Patniak positioning himself as crusader against corruption has helped the party
Although several leaders have left the BJD but it has not resulted in any significant erosion in its vote base.

Forecast Of Votes And Seats
Party	% of Voters	Seats
BJD+	46.9	100
Congress+	35.8	39
Others	17.3	8
Total		147

Party	Assembly 2000	Assembly 2004	Gains(+)/ Losses(-)
BJD+	106	100	-6
Congress	26	39	+13
Others	15	8	-7
Total	147	147

Swing in votes: Assembly 2000 to 2004
Party	Assembly 2000	Assembly 2004	Gains (+)/ Losses (-)
BJD+	47.6	46.9	-0.7
Congress	33.7	35.8	2.1
Others	18.7	17.3	-1.4

Voting Intentions - By Demography
Region wise	BJD+	Congress+
Location:
Urban	53	36
Rural	54	36
Sex:
Male	56	36
Female	48	39
Age:
18-24 Years	57	39
25-40 Years	55	36
41-60 Years	50	38
61 & Above	56	32

Voting Intentions - By Occupation
Occupation	BJD+	Congress+
Housewife	52	33
Unemployed	51	37
Student	53	47
Govt. Employee	64	29
Pvt. Employee	56	40
Businessmen	59	32
Farmer < 2 Acres of land	51	38
Farmer 2-5 Acres of land	41	46
Farmer more than 5 Acres of land	27	68
Agri labourer	48	48
Non agri labourer	53	39
Others	67	24

Voting Intentions - By Education
Education	BJD+	Congress+
Illiterate	52	38
Attended School	54	36
Graduate	55	35
Post Graduate/ Professional	60	40

Voting Intentions - By Caste/Religion
Caste/Religion	BJD+	Congress+
SC	54	36
ST	48	41
Muslims	42	58
Christians	29	43
Khandayats/Kshatriya	51	34
Brahmins	64	27
Karan	76	22
Teli	47	38
Kewata	53	38
Tanti	62	36
Other forward caste	65	35

Incumbency Factor: State Government
Are you happy with the performance of Naveen Patnaik led BJP Govt. in Orissa?
	Yes	No
	65	33

Do you think Naveen Patnaik led BJD Government should be given one more chance to rule the State?
	Yes	No
	63	33

How would you rate the performance of Naveen Patnaik led BJP Government in the State in comparison to previous Congress Government?
Better	Same	Worse
55	20	20

Incumbency Factor: Central Government
How would you rate the performance of Vajpayee led NDA Government at the Centre in comparison to previous Congress Govt.?
Better	Same	Worse
72	10	13

In your opinion should Vajpayee/led NDA Government be given one more chance to rule the country?
	Yes	No
	76	21

Leadership Issue
In your opinion between J.B. Patnaik and Naveen Patnaik who will be better candidate for Chief Minister?
Region wise	Naveen Patnaik	J.B. Patnaik
Overall	62	30
Location:
Urban	62	29
Rural	62	30
Sex:
Male	63	29
Female	59	30
Age:
18-24 Yrs.	65	29
25-40 Yrs.	62	20
41-60 Yrs.	61	30
Above 60 Yrs.	59	29

In your opinion who is a better leader to be the next Prime Minister of the country?
	A.B. Vajpayee	Sonia Gandhi
Overall	73	22
Location:
Urban	76	20
Rural	73	22
Sex:
Male	75	20
Female	69	27
Age:
18-24 yrs.	76	21
25-40 yrs	74	22
41-60 yrs	72	21
Above 60 yrs	71	24

Party Perceptions: State Perspective
	BJD+	INC
Which party’s election campaigns and claims do you trust more?	51	34
Which party’s position has improved more recently in your assembly constituency	53	37
Which party is more active and better organised in your constituency?	57	35
Which political party is likely to win in your assembly constituency if election is held now?	56	35

Party Perceptions: National Perspective
	BJD	INC
Which party/alliance is in a better position to tackle the issues facing the country?	72	23
Which party/alliance in your opinion is likely to form Govt. at Centre after this Lok Sabha election?	73	24

Perceptions
In your opinion, what are the most important problems bothering you in your assembly constituency?
Water	20
Road	11
Unemployment problem	10
Agriculture	8
Neglect of poor people	7
Electricity	7
Education facility	5
Corruption	4
Communication	3
Medical	3
Rural development	2

What is the most important achievement of Naveen Patnaik led BJD govt. In Orissa?
Road and communication	27
Corruption has reduced	8
Indira Awas Yojna	6
B.P.L. card issued to poor people	6
Drinking water supply	3
Overall development	3
Improvement in irrigation	2
Improvement in electricity supply	2
Law and order	2
Improvement in education facilities	2

What is the most important failure of Naveen Patnaik led BJD govt. in Orissa?
Unemployment	14
Corruption	4
Poverty	4
Irrigation	3
Loan for poor farmers	3
Water supply	3
Education	2
No rural development	2
Overall no development	2
Road /Transport problem	2

Sampled Constituencies: 20

RAIRANGPUR (ST), JALESWAR, SIMULIA, BARCHANA, MAHANGA, BANKI, GOBINDPUR, RANPUR. RAIRAKHOL (SC), ATHMALLIK, RAGHUNATHPALI (ST), KEONJHAR (ST), JATNI, SURUDA, GOPALPUR (SC), RAYAGADA (ST), UMARKOTE (ST), KESINGA, PHULBANI (SC), PATNAGARH

BJD+: Biju Janta Dal, Bhartiya Janta Party
Congress+: Congress, Orissa Gana Parishad (OGP), Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)
Others: Independents, CPI, CPM

All Figures In Percentage

Business

Sports

Others

BJD is likely to do well due to positive perception about its Govt. and the NDA Govt. at Centre. Predictions: BJD+: 106, Congress: 26; Others+: 15.