Vaghela has since been marginalised. But the BJP, which won the assembly elections and stomped to power in 1998 with 117 of the 182 assembly seats, has once again opened up a flank against itself. This time around, the war is between the moderates in the party - led by that self-same Suresh Mehta - and the hardliners helmed by chief minister Keshubhai Patel and the BJP state unit general secretary, Sanjay Joshi.
The dissidence came to the fore over the recent cabinet expansion in which the moderates say they have been totally sidelined. Suresh Mehta was not consulted during the expansion. This despite an earlier assurance that he would be taken into confidence in such cases. To Mehta - who possibly nurses a grouse at having being used as a stop-gap chief minister and then discarded by the BJP when Vaghela's rebellion caused a crisis in the party - the reshuffle is further reason to be cut up.
And this could lead to a new crisis now, for reasons of arithmetic. Since the dissidents under Suresh Mehta claim they have 40 to 45 mlas - one-third of the total BJP seats - they could, if they act en bloc, manage to bring down the government.
While the BJP general secretary Sumitra Mahajan told the press on May 20 that the crisis caused by the expansion has been amicably settled, sources in the rebel camp say they will continue the campaign against Keshubhai's style of functioning. They plan to bring up the issue of the stepmotherly treatment meted out to the moderates during Union home minister L.K. Advani's three-day visit to the state starting May 23.
The deep sense of resentment among the dissidents, say political observers in Gandhinagar, could work against the party during the Lok Sabha elections. Not only did Keshubhai deny former ministers among the moderates a berth in his ministry, they point out, he also also closed all doors on them by bringing hardliners into every top job in the state corporations.
Worse, several officials were demoted without apparent cause. Such as ips official Jaspal Singh, who was divested of his job in the department of food and civil supplies for no justifiable reason, and was handed over charge of prisons. Singh, who has since been staying away from office, is one of the more vocal critics of corruption in the state government.
There is much talk in the state of a coterie around the chief minister consisting of his son, and son-in-law along with revenue minister Vajubhai Vala and civil supplies minister Ashok Bhatt - which calls all the shots. This coterie, observers point out, could well be Keshubhai's nemesis.
Yet even as the whisper campaign against him intensifies, Keshubhai comes through as strangely unfazed. When the moderates loudly protested that their leader had not been consulted, the chief minister snapped back that Suresh Mehta was not part of the inner circle and did not merit to be consulted.'This has opened a vein of bitterness against the chief minister,' says an observer. 'Mehta is angry and can do little now but protest. But I think the BJP will pay the price in the coming Lok Sabha elections.'
The BJP currently has 19 of the 26 parliamentary seats from Gujarat. The Congress has seven seats - a tally that could go up to 10 seats if the rebellion in the BJP is not checked. And the BJP is likely to feel the pinch in the Kutch-Saurashtra belt, where the moderates hail from.
'I have no comment on the ongoing problems in our party. But it could spill over if something is not done by our leadership to amend the situation,' warns Purshottam Rupala, a leader from the moderate camp. Asked if he thought their grievances would be addressed, Rupala was hopeful that the party high command would not ignore them.
The buzz in political circles is that Mehta could well be another Vaghela in the making. As of now, Mehta's loyalty is all that's stopping the dissidents from going all the way to rebellion. Twice in the last year the leader of the moderates has been subjected to a cat and mouse game by Keshubhai. But the BJP may not be third time lucky. Any further humiliation could push the rebels to take the extreme step - which, at this juncture, would be disastrous for the BJP.
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