November Reign?

Pointers to an early poll

• Congress and its allies have planned nationwide farmer rallies to cash in on the kisan-friendly budget. Rahul has kicked off his desh darshan from Orissa.
  
• Despite strong objections from the Left, the PM is pushing ahead with the Indo-US nuclear deal.
  
• State units have been directed to gear up for polls and step up work at the grassroots level
  
• The Opposition is preparing for early elections.

• Younger Congress MPs believe that the party should cash in on the budget.
  
• They feel the Congress will do well in most of the assembly polls due at the end of the year. Holding simultaneous Lok Sabha elections will benefit the party.
  
• Should the rift with the Left widen, it may be counter-productive to wait till 2009

• Senior ministers want the government to continue till May 2009
  
• They feel it will project the UPA as a stable formation.
  
• If the monsoon fails and there is foodgrain shortage, then waiting till 2009 would be a better option.

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A central minister, close both to the PM and Congress president Sonia Gandhi, puts it in perspective. "The farmers' constituency has been won over," he says. "The middle class is not opposed to us. There is no real anti-incumbency. Yes, we have a problem with rising prices, but that is linked to the increase in the international prices of crude—and the BJP has no formula to tackle that. So there is one view in the party and government that we should go to the polls while the euphoria lasts, before an onset of anti-incumbency." However, a final call on the timing of the polls—November-December 2008 or February-March 2009—he adds, will depend on the monsoons. "If there is a good monsoon, the food situation is good and the universalisation of the nrega begins to be felt, we may be tempted to go for an end-2008 poll; otherwise, it'll be 2009."

Those in the government—like Union external affairs minister Pranab Mukherjee, home minister Shivraj Patil and defence minister A. K. Antony seem less enthusiastic about early polls than the aam Congressman. Science and technology minister Kapil Sibal told Outlook: "If you say this is an election budget because it is the last full budget before the elections, yes, that's true. But if you are saying this is a budget to go to polls with, there's no such indication, yet—neither from the prime minister or the Congress president. There are still some unfinished agendas."

Commerce minister Kamal Nath too struck a note of caution at a cabinet meeting after the presentation of the budget. He stressed that the opposition's criticism of the farm loan waiver—that it had not been budgeted for and did not address the problem of those who were in debt to moneylenders—needed to be answered. Another key cabinet minister told journalists, "The pro-farmer budget has had a positive impact, but there is no room for complacency." A third cabinet minister told Outlook, "I don't know how far the allocations to the agriculture sector will pay us electoral dividends. In fact, the income tax exemptions will help us more—there is no criticism of that."

However, the budget isn't the only reason for speculation on an early election. The Left, too, is flexing its muscles again. Not only has it been critical of the budget, it has also ratcheted up its opposition to the Indo-US civilian nuclear agreement again. CPI(M) stalwart Jyoti Basu has already issued a public warning saying he isn't sure how much longer the Left can support the UPA if it pursues the deal. Responding to Pranab Mukherjee's statement in Parliament on seeking the "broadest political consensus" on the deal, CPI(M) politburo member Sitaram Yechury warned that the Left "cannot continue its support" if the government pursued the deal. "Akalmand ko ishara kaafi hai (the wise need only a hint)," he said.

Then, on March 6, a day after the PM, too, indicated that the government had not given up on the deal, CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat wrote to Pranab, seeking an immediate convening of a meeting of the UPA-Left committee on the deal to discuss the text of the India-specific Safeguards Agreement which, reports suggest, is almost ready. This when Pranab had already indicated that the UPA-Left meeting would be held before his departure for the US on March 24. The UPA-Left committee met last in November 2007, when it gave the government the go-ahead to hold talks with the iaea.

What will the UPA do? Opinion in the party is divided on whether the N-deal is a vote-catcher or not. "This deal has no resonance with the voter at all," says a minister from a southern state. "It can be an election issue," counters an MLA from UP. "We can stress that this deal will help us on the energy security front." Others have had enough of the Left's pressure on the government and feel its threat to withdraw support should not weigh with the UPA. Then there are optimists like Congress media committee head and Administrative Reforms Commission chairman Veerappa Moily: "I'd like to put a question to the Left: God forbid if the NDA comes to power, but if it does, the Left will be to blame. Does the Left want a secular force like the Congress to survive or a communal party like the BJP?"

Top Congress sources, however, say Sonia herself is not keen on the UPA breaking with the Left for two reasons. One, she does not want the UPA to look like an unstable combination. And two, the Congress may need the Left again—after the general elections, whenever they are held.

Why then is the UPA government not only pursuing the deal with such zeal but losing no opportunity to reiterate its commitment to it (the President's address, Pranab's statement and the PM's speech)? Says a senior cabinet minister, "This is a question of our international credibility and national interest. No one should say we faltered on our commitment to the deal. If we can't do it eventually, it's another matter."

Meanwhile, the party has planned a series of celebration rallies, kicking off with one at Delhi's Ramlila grounds on March 9. Party spokesman and MoS Shakeel Ahmed says, "The key message of the rallies will be to the farming community." Sonia has also told state units that she wants state chiefs to work harmoniously with the clp leader/CM, maintain good relations with allied parties and to stop criticising each other. And Rahul is finally to begin his tours outside UP, starting with Orissa.

Politics, in the end, is as much about good governance as it is about getting the right message across. Says Moily: "We have an excellent product—Brand Congress. In the past, we appear to have failed in salesmanship. Now, we'll go in for aggressive marketing. It's bound to work." But politics is also about timing. Will the party gamble on a 2008 poll? Watch this space.