Heavy Rainfall Alert: Tamil Nadu and Kerala Face Intensifying Storms from Bay of Bengal System

Southern India faces an unprecedented wet spell as the India Meteorological Department issues heavy to isolated severe rainfall alerts for both Tamil Nadu and Kerala through November 23-24, driven by multiple intensifying weather systems converging over the region. A low-pressure area forming over the southeast Bay of Bengal around November 22 is expected to strengthen into a depression by November 24, while a persistent cyclonic circulation persists over the southeast Arabian Sea, influencing Kerala simultaneously. Early model guidance indicates a 60 percent probability of the Bay system intensifying into a cyclonic storm, though forecast divergence remains concerning for precise predictions. Tamil Nadu has recorded significant precipitation, with Oothu station in Tirunelveli receiving 23 centimeters in 24 hours, while Kerala maintains a rainfall deficit of 27 percent since October 1.

Regional Alert Distribution and Rainfall Forecast

Tamil Nadu faces graduated alert levels: November 20 for Cuddalore and Mayiladuthurai; November 21 for southern coastal districts, including Kanniyakumari, Tirunelveli, Thoothukudi, and Ramanathapuram; November 22-24 for coastal and delta regions, including Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, and Pudukkottai districts. Schools in Chennai, Chengalpattu, and Tiruvallur have been closed as precautionary measures.

Kerala experiences isolated heavy to severe rainfall from November 20-21, intensifying through November 22-23 as moisture inflow strengthens from the Arabian Sea and Bay systems. Light to moderate rainfall is expected at many places statewide, with thunderstorm activity at isolated locations across both states. Temperatures in Tamil Nadu remain between 24-32°C, while Kerala experiences similar ranges with high humidity.

Marine Warnings and Safety Advisories

Marine warnings remain active over both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea with wind speeds reaching 40-50 kilometers per hour, gusting to 60 kilometers per hour over coastal regions. Wave heights are expected to increase significantly across coastal zones. Fishermen are strongly advised against venturing into the sea during the forecast period due to hazardous maritime conditions.

Residents in both states are urged to avoid waterlogged areas, postpone non-essential travel during peak rainfall, and remain alert for falling tree branches and structural damage. Vulnerable populations should remain indoors during intense rainfall periods. State disaster management authorities in both Tamil Nadu and Kerala have been placed on high alert for potential emergency responses to flooding and storm incidents.