Mumbai records 1,147 mm July rainfall before a sudden monsoon pause halts widespread showers across city.
IMD attributes dry spell to monsoon break, El Niño, MJO and reduced moisture-bearing weather systems.
Moderate rainfall is expected from July 18, but intense early-month downpours are unlikely to return.
After enduring severe downpours followed by intense heat, Mumbai is currently experiencing a short monsoon pause.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated that the city will see only scattered light drizzle over the coming days. Moderate rainfall and cloudy skies will resume on Saturday, July 18.
The city has already registered 1,147 mm of rainfall this July, which easily exceeds the standard suburban monthly average of 920 mm. Despite this massive total, precipitation has suddenly stalled. Between Sunday and Tuesday morning on July 14, weather stations in both the island city and suburbs registered 0 mm of precipitation.
Meteorologists attributed the ongoing dry period to a combination of atmospheric elements. These include a standard monsoon break, the lack of active weather systems and the impact of El Niño.
Independent weather forecaster Athreya Shetty told the Indian Express that El Niño, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and dry winds blowing from Central Asia are primary factors suppressing cloud development.
"El Niño as well as the MJO have essentially suppressed any kind of cloud formation at the moment. Besides this, we are also receiving a lot of dry winds from Central Asia," Shetty added.
The absence of typical moisture-drawing mechanisms, such as troughs and cyclonic circulations—has also contributed to the sudden halt in widespread showers.
Monsoon is expected to gradually pick up from Saturday, July 18, bringing moderate showers and generally cloudy skies to the city.
However, weather experts do not expect a repeat of the intense rainfall recorded between July 1 and July 8. Weather observers said that these heavy spells are unlikely to return until the end of July.
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