Madhya Pradesh

Madhya Pradesh

MainPage ! SurveyHighlights And Methodology
Delhi ! Rajasthan !Chattisgarh

Voting intention and seat forecast for coming Vidhan Sabha elections

Party

Actual vote in1998 (%)

Voting intentionfor 2003 (%)

Swing

(%)

Actual number ofseats in 1998

Projected numberof seats for 2003

BJP

38.8

43.1

+4.3

83

147

INC

41.2

34.2

--7.0

124

58

Others

19.9

22.6

+2.7

23

25

Total

100

0

230

1. The reasons for intending to vote for a particular party

Respondents who had indicated aParty they would vote for in the coming elections were next asked to give their reasons of why they would votefor that Party. They were free to give one or more reasons.

Main reasons given for votingfor Congress and BJP by 10% or more of the respondents are summarized in the table below:

Congress- I

BJP

Base : Would Vote for.....

2837

3575

% saying

%

Votingfrom beginning

19

10

Canresolve the issue of power crisis

14

20

Willmake roads

12

14

Canresolve issue of water scarcity

9

10

Donegood work

9

13

Willsolve problem of poverty

8

7

Willsolve state problem

8

10

Canmaintain laws & order

7

Willprovide more employment

7

11

Main reason for voting in favourof Congress (I) was that they had been voting for the party sincethe beginning. For all the other reasons given such as solving power crisis, making roads, solving waterproblems etc. the BJP received more mentions than Congress on a reason for voting for it.

2. Important issues facing the State today

Respondents were asked to statethe three main issues facing the State today. A large number ofproblems were mentioned. The main problems mentioned by over 10%of the respondents were:

All Sample

Urban

Rural

Base : All respondents

8295

3832

4462

% saying..

%

Electricity/PowerSituation

77

76

78

Water Problem

55

52

57

Poor Condition ofroads in the State

45

46

Providingemployment Opportunities

39

44

36

Poverty

15

14

16

Improvement ofvillages

10

7

12

Providing bettereducation

10

9

11

As can be seen electricity/ powersituation, water problem, poor condition of roads in the State and unemployment are the main concerns amongthe people of Madhya Pradesh.

3. Whether Voted in 1998 Vidhan Sabhaelections

The respondents were next askedwhether they had voted in the last Vidhan Sabha elections that were held in 1998.

All Sample

Urban

Rural

Base : All Sample

8295

3817

4478

% who said they voted for ;

%

Yes

87

86

89

No

13

14

11

87% of the respondents in thesample claimed that they had cast their votes in the 1998 Vidhan Sabha Elections.

4. Party voted for in the 1998 VidhanSabha Elections Vs. Party intend to vote for now

Party voted forin the 1998 Vidhan Sabha Elections

Base : Claim to have voted

Congress (I)

BJP

in 1998 for ..

2962

2883

Party intend to vote now

% saying:

%

Congress

79.6

4.5

BJP

11.5

89.7

Others

2.1

1.3

Don't know/Can'tsay

5.7

3.1

11.5% of the respondents in thesample who claimed to have voted in favour of Congress (I) in the last Vidhan Sabha Elections have said thatthey will vote for BJP this time. Whereas, only 4.5% of those whosaid they had voted for BJP now intend to vote for Congress (I) indicating a shift away from the Congress.

5. Reasonsfor Shifting away from Congress (I)

AllSample

Urban

Rural

Base :those who claimed to have voted for Congress (I) last time butintend to vote for the BJP now

340

162

178

%saying

%

Not satisfied withtheir work

15

17

14

Power problem / Nopower supply

10

11

No development

9

7

10

Try different party

9

No employment

7

10

4

Most of the people are shiftingaway from Congress, as they seem to be dissatisfied with the work done by the Party especially in the field ofpower/electricity

6. Performance of Digvijay Singh asthe Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh

Ofthe 8295 people interviewed 85% were aware that . Digvijay Singh is the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh.

Therespondents were next asked to rate the performance of . Digvijay Singh of Congress (I) as the ChiefMinister during his 10 year tenure in Madhya Pradesh on a five-point scale ranging from “Very Good” to“Very Poor”. The responseswere:

AllSample

Urban

Rural

Base : Allrespondents

8295

3817

4478

% rating him

%

VeryGood

6

5

7

Good

20

18

21

Average

18

Poor

30

31

29

VeryPoor

20

19

Don’tKnow / Can’t Say

6

8

5

MeanScore (Out of 5.0)

2.59

2.52

2.65

Theperformance of . Digvijay Singh as the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh was rated as Below Average on thescale. Overall,26% said that his performance has been Goodor Very Good, whereas, 50% say that it has been Poor or Very Poor.

7.

Main failures of Digvijay Singh

Allthose respondents who had rated the performance of the CM in the past ten years as poor to very poor, wereasked the reasons for the same. The responses were:

AllSample

Urban

Rural

Base:All those who rated performance of CM as poor or very poor

4115

1959

2157

% saying

%

Has not improvedelectricity/power situation in the State

45

47

44

Has not improvedroads in the State

19

21

18

Has not solved thewater Problem

19

18

20

Has not providedemployment opportunities

18

21

15

Has not done enoughfor overall development of the State

16

14

18

The main reasons for rating theperformance of Digvijay Singh as Poor to Very Poor were no improvement in power situation in the statefollowed by poor condition of roads, water problem and unemployment.

8.Opinions about the issue of opening the Bhojshala

Thoseinterviewed were next asked about the ‘Bhojshala’ issue. Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh . DigvijaySingh of Congress opened the Bhojshala for worship by both the Hindus and the Muslims.

Respondentswere asked to express their views about this action taken by the Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister. Incase therespondent were not aware of this issue; the responses were coded under ‘Don’t Know/ Can’t say’.

Respondentswere asked whether the CM was right or wrong in his action. The responses were:

AllSample

Urban

Rural

Base: No. interviewed

8295

3832

4462

%saying

%

Digvijay Singh/ Congress was rightin opening the Bhojshala for Hindus & Muslims

58

60

56

Digvijay Singh/ Congress was notright in opening the Bhojshala for Hindus & Muslims

18

16

20

Others

2

3

1

Don’t know / Can’t say

22

21

23

A majority of 59% of therespondents favoured Digvijay Singh’s step of opening the Bhojshala for worship by both Hindus andMuslims.

9.Opinions about . Digvijay Singh’s petition to the Prime Minister to banCow Slaughter

ChiefMinister of Madhya Pradesh . Digvijay Singh of Congress had sent a petition to the Prime Minister seekinga central legislation to ban cow slaughter.

Respondents were asked toexpress their views about this act of the Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister andwhether the CM was right or wrong in his action. The responses were:

AllSample

Urban

Rural

Base: All respondents

8295

3832

4462

% saying:

%

Digvijay Singh is correct inwriting a petition to the Prime Minister

81

80

82

Digvijay Singh is not correct inwriting a petition to the Prime Minister

5

6

This issue is irrelevant

4

Others

0

1

0

Don’t know / Can’t say

9

10

9

81%of the respondents were of the opinion that . Digvijay Singh was correct in writing a petition to thePrime Minister to ban Cow Slaughter

10. Party that can enforce the ban on ‘Cow Slaughter’ inMadhya Pradesh

Respondentswere then informed that the bill to ban cow slaughter has been approved by the Union cabinet, but enforcing itin individual States is up to the State governments. They were asked to give their opinion, as to which of thetwo parties- Congress (I) or BJP will enforce the ban in the State.

AllSample

Urban

Rural

Base:All Respondents

8295

3832

4462

%saying

%

BJP

45

46

44

Congress (I)

30

26

33

Bahujan Samaj Party(BSP)

6

Others

1

Don’t know / Can’t say

17

20

14

Overall,45% of the respondents felt that BJP was the party that will enforce the ban on cow slaughter in the State, ascompared to 30% who think Congress (I) will enforce the ban in the State.

11.

Opinion about Ms. Uma Bharti contesting the elections after being charge sheeted in the Babri MasjidDemolition case

AllSample

Urban

Rural

Base:All Respondents

8295

3832

4462

%saying

%

Yes, UmaBharati should contest the forth coming elections

66

No, Uma Bharatishould not contest the forth coming elections

29

30

Don’t know / Can’t say

4

5

4

Overall, 66% of therespondents felt that Uma Bharti should contest the forth coming elections

12. Most capable of being the next CM of Madhya Pradesh

The respondents were next askedwho, out of a list of names on a card was the most suitable person to become the Chief Minister of MadhyaPradesh. The responses received were:

Allsample

Urban

Rural

Base : All sample

8295

3832

4462

% saying

%

Uma

Bharti

38

Digvijay Singh

28

25

30

Mayawati

5

6

Arjun Singh

3

Sundar LalPatwa

3

Kamal Nath

3

4

1

Don’t know / Can’t say

15

17

14

Overall,38% of the total sample covered, perceived Uma Bharti to be the most capable personfor becoming the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh, as compared to 28% who favouredDigvijay Singh.

List of Assembly Constituencies covered in Madhya Pradesh

ACNO.

ASSEMBLY CONSTITUENCY

PARLIAMENTARY CONSTITUENCY

3

SABALGARH

MORENA

7

DIMNI (SC)

MORENA

13

RON

BHIND

20

DABRA

GWALIOR

22

SEONDHA (SC)

BHIND

25

POHRI

GUNA

34

MUNGAOLI

GUNA

36

KHURAI (SC)

SAGAR

39

SAGAR

45

KHARGAPUR (SC)

KHAJURAHO

47

MALEHRA

DAMOH

54

PATHARIA (SC)

DAMOH

59

MAIHAR

SATNA

67

GURH

REWA

71

DEOTALAB (SC)

REWA

76

DHAUHANI (ST)

SIDHI

83

KOTMA (ST)

SHAHDOL

177

BAIHAR (ST)

BALAGHAT

180

WARASEONI

BALAGHAT

188

BAJAG (ST)

MANDLA

196

JABALPUR CENTRAL

JABALPUR

199

MAJHOLI

SEONI

204

VIJAIRAGHOGARH

SATNA

206

BOHANI

HOSHANGABAD

211

KEOLARI

SEONI

215

CHHINDWARA

224

ITARSI

HOSHANGABAD

229

MASOD

BETUL

237

SEHORE

BHOPAL

245

BHOJPUR

VIDHISHA

247

BASODA

VIDHISHA

251

BIAORA

RAJGARH

254

RAJGARH

258

SHAJAPUR

262

MAHIDPUR

UJJAIN

267

UJJAIN SOUTH

UJJAIN

271

INDORE-II

INDORE

277

SONKATCH (SC)

SHAHJAPUR

282

NIMARKHEDI

KHANDWA

284

KHANDWA

292

KHARGONE

297

BARWANI (ST)

DHAR

300

DHAR

310

RATLAM RURAL

JHABUA

316

SUWASARA (SC)

MANDSAUR

318

MANDSAUR

MainPage ! SurveyHighlights And Methodology
Delhi ! Rajasthan !Chattisgarh

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Madhya Pradesh

Incumbency will be a factor against the Digvijay Singh government.

Base:All those who rated performance of CM as poor or very poor

10. Party that can enforce the ban on ‘Cow Slaughter’ inMadhya Pradesh