Liquid Mercies

For Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot, whose four-and-a-half-year tenure has coincided with the long spell of drought, it’s a last-minute reprieve. Rural voters were easy prey to superstition that only a change in CM would propitiate the rain gods. Now, Congressmen are losing no opportunity to point out that every part of the state received excess rainfall except the Baran-Jhalawar region, home of BJP CM-aspirant Vasundhararaje!

Three months ago, Congress spokesman S. Jaipal Reddy wryly remarked that the results of the assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan hinged on the monsoon. While the feelgood element engendered by the rains may not ensure victory for the Congress, it seems to have diluted the anti-incumbency factor against both state governments and improved the party’s prospects. Although Gehlot was credited with running an efficient drought relief operation for 11 months, he was unlikely to have survived another parched summer. The Centre had allocated adequate supplies of foodgrains and Punjab had chipped in with fodder, but there was no way of ensuring enough drinking water. The BJP’s campaign was geared to the drought, with posters of scorched earth and women trekking miles for water. Now, most of the reservoirs in the state are one-third to half full, although some are still at the zero level. The BJP is perforce looking for other issues.

Not an easy task. Apart from drought relief, Gehlot has shown results on the power generation, road infrastructure and education fronts. The state has increased thermal power generation by 50 per cent, improved road capacity and opened 18,000 new schools. The BJP has gone hoarse pointing out the fact that funds for drought relief, roads and schools have come from the Centre. But the Rajasthan government has not only walked away with the credit, but given the BJP a black eye in the process. Says Gehlot: "We had to fight with the Centre for every drop of relief, part of which is still due to us. On our part, we worked on a war footing. Every family still has excess grain in its house."

Surveys privately commissioned by the BJP show Gehlot’s graph improving in the last year—when drought relief operations went into high gear—but still falling far short of a majority. Privately, Congressmen agreed with the survey. But that was pre-monsoon. The Congress survey, conducted more recently, shows Gehlot ahead of Vasundhara. Also going for the Congress is the CM’s image. He’s always been regarded as clean but somewhat namby-pamby. Says Congress observer and aicc secretary B.K. Hariprasad: "The firm handling of the vhp’s trishul diksha leading to the arrest of Praveen Togadia, and of the strike by government staff have gone in his favour. He’s soft, not weak".

Even more comforting for the party is the infighting in the BJP. Leaders from virtually every section of the BJP’s upper caste votebank—Rajputs, Brahmins and Banias—aren’t supporting Vasundhara. One of them, MLA and former minister Devi Singh Bhatti, was suspended from the party last fortnight. Although detained by the police, he still managed to embarrass PM Atal Behari Vajpayee by sending in supporters to heckle him during his rally in Jaipur last Sunday.

But that doesn’t mean Gehlot can expect a walkover. The party’s detailed pre-electoral SWOT analysis has shown a strong anti-incumbency factor against almost 60 MLAs, including ministers who face allegations of corruption. If Gehlot attempts to change a quarter or even one-third of MLAs, they would be snapped up by other parties or propped up as independents to hurt the Congress.

The other disturbing factor for Gehlot is the gains made by the BSP in the last five years. Mayawati intends to field candidates in all the 200 assembly seats and has reportedly already finalised a list of 150. The party opened its account in Rajasthan in 1998 with just two MLAs but is expected to do better this time. If nothing else, it will damage the Congress by taking away its traditional Dalit votes.

Gehlot is also finding it difficult to respond to charges of indifferent fiscal management. The state is deep in debt. Industrial growth has tended towards zero. Small-scale industries have closed down, fuelling unemployment. The state didn’t opt for the National Agricultural Insurance Scheme until June, which could have benefited lakhs of farmers. Even drought relief operations took off only in the last eight months. Says Vasundhara: "What was the state government doing during the first four years of drought? One good monsoon is not going to wipe out memories of years of deprivation."

A crucial factor in the assembly elections will be the PM’s endorsement of reservation for upper castes. Although Gehlot raised the subject first, the PM appears to have hijacked the issue. Gehlot claims credit: "We asked the Centre to approve a 14 per cent quota for the poor among forward castes, based on Karpoori Thakur’s formula. It’s been welcomed by all castes, including SC/STs and OBCs." Vajpayee has now lobbed the ball back to the Congress court by asking party president Sonia Gandhi to support a constitution amendment bill which makes quotas on economic criteria possible. If the BJP’s upper caste votebank remains intact as a result of this and the Jats who had switched their loyalties in 1999 don’t return to the Congress, caste arithmetic will work against Gehlot. Particularly if the BSP cuts into the Congress voteshare.

The BJP is relying heavily on Vasundhara’s personal charisma and "feudal" appeal to attract voters. She projects herself as the inheritor of Vijayaraje Scindia’s mantle: "I don’t apologise for having been brought up in palaces or staying in five-star hotels. But I can last longer on a padayatra than anyone...my mother went all over Rajasthan, as I have. I find she still lives on in public memory." But her detractors say the Rajputs see her as a "Maratha" and therefore don’t acknowledge her as "one of us".

While Gehlot has the edge over Vasundhara, it’s not a one-sided contest. The outcome is still tied in with the weather gods. The kharif crop needs another two rounds of good rain to ensure a bumper harvest. And the farmer needs adequate power supply when agricultural demand peaks next month—more easily said than provided, as transmission losses are high and farmers claim they don’t receive more than four to six hours of power a day.

In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress had been playing on voters’ superstition to deflect anger over inadequate drought relief. CM Digvijay Singh warned them against the country’s kunwara (unmarried) leaders—the President and the PM—because of whom, ostensibly, the rain gods hadn’t smiled. The subtext was that electing BJP chief ministerial aspirant (and sanyasin) Uma Bharati might just translate into another year of drought. Diggy has had to eat his words but has done so with relief because the monsoon has robbed the BJP of its most emotive issue—power shortage.

So acute was the crisis in the state that poor results in the cbse examinations—only 26 per cent of the students passed—was attributed to their inability to study in scorching heat and candle-light. One student committed suicide even before the examination, because he hadn’t been able to study. In Bhopal, residents were accustomed to less than 12 hours of power a day. No power meant no drinking water. A BJP survey conducted in May, when the crisis was at its peak, showed the party getting a two-thirds majority.

The rains have mitigated the power crisis because an additional 400 MW of hydel power is being generated. Supply has gone up as demand has come down—a pretty accurate reflection of the Congress-versus-BJP graph. "I’m confident the monsoon will help us do better at the hustings," asserts Digvijay. Agrees state minister Raja Pateria, "By the time we go to polls, the BJP will be left without issues."

The Madhya Pradesh government has pulled up its socks on other fronts too. The road infrastructure, regarded as perhaps the worst in the country after Bihar, has improved considerably. The pani roko abhiyan, a water harvesting project, has been successful and the administration is confident of ensuring adequate supply till the end of winter. But the last-minute flurry of road-building, water-harvesting and power generation may not be able to turn Digvijay’s fortunes around. The government’s education-friendly image having taken a knock with this year’s poor results, implementation of panchayati raj seems to be its only usp now.

Uma Bharati thinks the voters’ memory isn’t as short as Digvijay would like to believe: "It’s not as if power generation capacity has been enhanced. Demand has fallen and the power purchase bill has gone up. While the voter may be in a celebratory mood at the moment, he will not easily forget the tortures of last summer. And he will wonder why, after having been in the saddle for nine years, Digvijay couldn’t ensure him power and water this summer and whether he can do so next summer." But conscious of the monsoon factor, the BJP has eschewed a combative posture and toned down its attacks on the government. "The voter is not in a mood to hear negative things and we respect that. We’d rather communicate our vision of the future," she adds.

Apart from the ‘double’ anti-incumbency factor—Digvijay has served two consecutive terms—the CM has to contend with two other headaches. One is the infighting within his party. Virtually no Congress stalwart in the state gets along with him. The other is the BSP and the Gondwana Gantantra Party (GGP). Although their appeal is confined to the Malwa and Jabalpur areas respectively, they will damage the Congress by cutting into its SC and ST votebank. And a good monsoon may not be enough to carry Digvijay past the winning post.

But in both Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the political climate has changed for sure thanks to the rain gods. Had they failed, it would have been advantage BJP—gratis. For the present, though, both the Congress and BJP sit anxiously on the see-saw of political fortunes, waiting for the future to unfold.

By Bhavdeep Kang with K.S. Shaini in Bhopal