Karnataka

Forecast Of Votes And Seats
Party	% of Voters	Seats
BJP+	41.7	111
Congress	35.5	84
Others	22.8	29
Total		224

Gains/loss of seats: Assembly 1999 to 2004

Party	Assembly 1999	Assembly 2004	Gains(+)/ Losses(-)
BJP+	62	111	+49
Congress	132	84	-48
Others	30	29	-1
Total			224

Swing in votes: Assembly 1999 to 2004 Assembly 1999 to 2004

Region wise	BJP+	Congress
Hyderabad Karnataka	40	32
Bombay Karnataka	52	34
Coastal	43	37
Old Mysore	30	47


Voting Intention: by Caste/Community

Caste/ Religion	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
1: SC, 2:ST, 3:Muslim, 4:Brahmin, 5:Lingayat, 6:Vokalinga 7: Kuruba, 8: Moratha, 9:OBC, 10:BC Advertisement

North East Karnataka
BJP+	41	42	18	60	41	36	45	25	39	38
Congress	33	39	69	30	25	36	26	13	32	50

North West Karnataka
BJP+	20	36	23	41	66	67	60	65	43	-
Congress	45	29	68	41	20	20	40	27	47	-

Manglore Karnataka Belt
BJP+	48	25	20	66	53	56	-	-	31	-
Congress	45	50	60	17	33	22	-	-	53	-

Old Mysore
BJP+	20	26	10	50	37	29	24	50	25	21
Congress	63	54	73	26	29	43	45	33	55	42


Incumbency Factor: State Government

Are you happy with the performance of S.M. Krishna led Congress Govt. in Karnataka?
Region	Yes		No
Hyderabad Karnataka	47		51
Bombay Karnataka	38		58
Coastal	52		40
Old Mysore	52		41

How would you rate the performance of S.M. Krishna led Congress Government in the State in comparison to previous Janta Dal Government?
Region	Better	Same	Worse
Hyderabad Karnataka	29	25	44
Bombay Karnataka	33	21	39
Coastal	34	34	21
Old Mysore	41	32	22

Incumbecy Factor: Central Government

How would you rate the performance of Vajpayee led NDA Government at the Centre in comparison to previous Congress Govt.?

Party

Better

Same

Worse

Hyderabad Karnataka

76

17

7

Bombay Karnataka

71

13

Coastal

54

22

20

Old Mysore

60

31

3

Leadership Issue

In your opinion, between S.M. Krishna and Anant Kumar, who will be a better candidate for chief ministership?

In your opinion who is a better leader to be the next Prime Minister of the country?

Party Perception: State Perspective

Which partys election campaign and claims do you trust more?
Region wise	BJP+	INC+
Hyderabad Karnataka	40	33
Bombay Karnataka	54	34
Coastal	43	28
Old Mysore	25	44

Between Congress and BJP who is more active and better organised locally in your constituency?
Hyderabad Karnataka	39	36
Bombay Karnataka	61	27
Coastal	47	28
Old Mysore	26	45

In your opinion, which party is position has improved in your constituency?
Hyderabad Karnataka	38	33
Bombay Karnataka	54	29
Coastal	49	30
Old Mysore	33	44

In your opinion, which party is likely to win in your assembly constituency?
Hyderabad Karnataka	42	30
Bombay Karnataka	60	28
Coastal	52	28
Old Mysore	30	46

Performance Issues
In your opinion, what are the most important problems bothering you in your assembly constituency?
Water	46
Road	12
Electricity	12
Poverty	6
Unemployment	5
Education	2
Agriculture	2
Housing	2
Drought	2
Corruption	1

What is the most important achievement of S.M. Krishna led Congress govt. in Karnataka?
Education	21
Development of Bangalore	14
Road	8
Information technology	6
Crop insurance policy	4
Shakti Yojna	3
Water supply	2
Rural development	2
Helped the Farmer	2
Women self help groups	2
Over all development	2

What is the most important failure of S.M. Krishna led Congress govt. in Karnataka?
Kaveri River problem	14
Lack of rural development	10
Agriculture	9
Unemployment	6
Corruption/Stamp paper scam	6
Poverty	3
Drought relief initiatives	3
Education	2
Bad administration	2
Roads	2

BJP+: Bhartiya Janta Party, Janta Dal (U)
Others: Independents, Janta Dal (S)

All Figures In Percentage

Congress support base declining in all four regions of the state - BJP+:111, Congress: 84, Others: 29