In The Saddle, But For How Long ?

Vajpayee's immediate acceptance gave the party little time to go over the pros and cons of assuming power at the Centre. The whole idea was to get a few days to ponder over the situation, and even decline the offer, if it so demanded. But a section of the party—mainly dominated by Rajasthan Chief Minister Bhairon Singh Shekhawat and General Secretary Pramod Mahajan—felt that the party was morally committed to forming the Government, especially after Vajpayee had staked his claim following his election as the BJP parliamentary party leader on May 11.

Coinciding with these developments in the BJP was a lurking fear in the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) that the "ganging up of the secular forces and their forming the government would lead to demoralisation in the only pro-Hindu party and pose a serious threat to national unity. In the RSS' calculations, the Third Front government, if it came to power, might resort to several populist and pro-minority moves, including granting more autonomy to Kashmir, and that the BJP should not allow this".

But the President willed otherwise. He did not even discuss other options during his meeting with Vajpayee. A hurriedly-summoned meeting of party heavyweights at the Prime Minister-designate's residence completed the formality of endorsing Vajpayee's stand. If there was any feeling of uncertainty in the morning, it gave way to optimism by the afternoon when party workers assembled outside Vajpayee's house—which by then resembled 7, Race Course Road (Narasimha Rao's residence) with Raisina Road completely cordoned off—dancing to the beat of drums and chanting of ' Jai Sri Ram, ho gaya kam ' (Thank god, the job's been done). At 7 pm, Vajpayee declared: "It is both a challenge and an opportunity and we have decided to accept it". He seemed confident when he said he would muster the required majority, and that Congress spokesman V.N. Gadgil's assertion that "the government is going to be a eight-day wonder" was something that did not merit comment. But Vajpayee's ostensible confidence could do little to disprove the fact that the party would find it difficult to reach the required tally to cling on to power.

Yet, the BJP felt that it should at least give it a try. The prevailing confusion in the Congress—including a growing hostility towards Rao—and its delay in sending a missive to the President about its support to the Third Front prime ministerial candidate H.D. Deve Gowda raised BJP hopes. And, according to a senior party functionary: "Even if we lose the vote of confidence, we will bow out with grace and tell the nation that we accepted the constitutional obligation as the single largest party but avoided getting into horse trading and manipulation just to stick around." This excuse will, however, be offered only if the party's other calculations go awry. Among the various variables being bandied about by the BJP which could work to its advantage:

Almost in a parallel move, Defence Minister Pramod Mahajan appealed for a 'conscience voting' and General Secretary Veniah Naidu said the Government should continue in power as otherwise there would be political instability in the country. "If this Government goes, the next general election will not be far away," he warned, claiming that a majority of the new MPs would like to avoid elections—and thereby implying that they would either abstain or support the BJP. But the fact that both Mahajan and Sushma Swaraj who continue to hold party posts (general secretary) even after their inclusion in the Cabinet—the party believes in a one-man-one-post theory—only indicates the BJP's assessment of the situation. After all, even if all its calculations work out, the party still needs 75 members' support—either directly or through abstentions—a feat which is next to impossible.

But at the moment, all calculations are based on theoritical rhetoric. And even if the BJP wins the trust vote, it will have to make so many compromises just to be in power that it might be reduced to being the 'Congress party's B-Team'.