Counter Ambush

But even in this hour of crisis, party leaders are set on hitting out at the 'betrayers'. Sources say 'exposing' Pawar, against whom they claim to have a lot of information, will be an all-out effort. Maharashtra stalwarts like S.B. Chavan, Pratap Singh Bhosle and Gurudas Kamat have also been charged with digging up dirt on the Maratha strongman - like his alleged links with the Mumbai underworld and possible references to his Dawood link in the Vohra Committee annexures. It is also believed that professional 'investigators' have been hired to pull the skeletons out of Pawar's cupboard.

Besides, his role as defence minister in the Narasimha Rao cabinet is going to be put under the microscope. While in that post, he'd made news for giving a 'ride' to an accused in the J.J. Hospital shootout in Mumbai in an iaf chopper coming from Uttar Pradesh.

While aware that it's going to be an uphill task, Congressmen are confident that the Sonia charisma can pull the party through. That is why there's little disagreement that with the 'foreigner' issue having outed, they'll have to stand up to it. But to cash in on her political equity, the first step is to get Sonia to lead the campaign. 'Without her, what will we tell the voters?' asks Madhya Pradesh chief minister Digvijay Singh. In this he probably represents the views of all Congress chief ministers. Ashok Gehlot, Giridhar Gomango and Sheila Dixit have proved their loyalty. So too have state pcc chiefs and district presidents. Party cadres have been camping in the capital, impressing upon Sonia to withdraw her resignation.

Some in the Congress feel that getting her to reverse her decision has to be seen to be an honourable response to the party rank and file's pleas. Hence the sycophantic display of support outside 10, Janpath. But Sonia has so far remained unmoved. Some leaders also believe that she may not withdraw her resignation hastily. 'She'll campaign, but maybe as just a party worker,' says a leader.

Another move to contain the chaos, after expelling the trio, will be to hold an extended session of the aicc later this month. 'This will be a huge show of strength where it will be proclaimed loud and clear that none except Sonia can lead the party,' says a cwc member. That's not all. 'It may even be necessary for cwc members to go on relay hunger-strike outside the party office to convey the message of her absolute essentiality in the party,' says Shiv Shankar.

The Congress' damage control attempts are understandable. If she relents and withdraws her resignation, its opponents will seek to portray the entire thing as a 'publicity stunt' for sympathy.On the other hand, if she sticks to her decision, the party goes to the hustings minus a proclaimed leader. That rudderless state would be in stark relief to the bjp campaign harping upon the qualities of Atal Behari Vajpayee and the combined show of their allies.

But one school of thought in the Congress is that having the foreigner issue out in the open has dealt a pre-emptive strike to the bjp's election plank. The bjp, too, isn't drawing too fine a line over the issue. In part, that stems from the fact that a lot of rich bjp sympathisers are nris who feel the logic of 'foreigners off' cannot be pushed beyond a point. Says Shiv Shankar: 'They can't afford to push the argument too far. It will boomerang.' That is part of the reason why a section of the bjp feels that the Italian issue needs to be softpedalled. In fact, it would be in the bjp's interest if, instead of the party leaders, the allies rake up the issue.

As for Sangma, party leaders say that he's got more than his due. At Pachmarhi, he was made chairperson of the task force set up under Sonia's direct authority, made a member of the cwc - a privilege usually extended to senior party leaders and drafted as member of the committee on constitutional amendments. Congressmen say that Sangma's action is sheer opportunism, based on design rather than principles.

Leaders close to Sonia say her moves now must be very measured. Says Mani Shankar Aiyar: 'She'll go very cautiously, as if crossing a minefield.' cwc members say that Sonia could possibly return only when she now knows that all her opponents - and potential opponents - are identified and marginalised.

That'll take time, and that's a commodity party managers don't have. Some feel it is vital that the party get its act together, put the crisis behind it and hit the road. The Congress quandary arises from the fact that the longer the issue lingers, the more are the chances of its prospects taking a hit, apart from the confusion that will prevail.

The results are already clear. In crucial Uttar Pradesh, Muslim voters who stood by Mulayam Singh Yadav for all of a decade and seemed going the Congress way are now stumped by the Sonia bombshell. The much-touted foreign effect has not swayed the minorities. But without Sonia at the campaign vanguard, will they go back to Mulayam, even if he is seen as playing the bjp game? And if that is the case in Uttar Pradesh, what happens to minorities elsewhere in the country?

The irony in all this: Sonia has at once become the uniting as well as disuniting factor. Her presence as its head galvanised India's oldest party over the last year or so. But it is her presence that is now threatening to tear it apart.

With Sutapa Mukherjee