Clutching The Last Straw?

THE latest alliance in Indian politics was announced at an all-too-brief press conference on June 24. An enthusiastic Kanshi Ram, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) supremo, was just beginning to hold forth on his new partner when Congress President P.V. Narasimha Rao hastily called off the tete-a-tete with journalists. Rao knew that accepting the BSP's leadership in UP was a political compulsion, but a free-wheeling interaction with the media would only have exposed the absence of commonality in approach between the two partners on many issues, not the least being Mahatma Gandhi.

"We will contest 300 seats, leaving 125 to the Congress in the 425-member state legislative assembly. And Mayavati will be the chief minister if the alliance secures a majority," Kanshi Ram said. Rao couldn't even differ. "It's not within my rights to decide who the chief minister would be. But two partners can always decide the broad framework," he intoned submissively.

Rao had refused to divulge details of the incipient tie up when the issue cropped up at the June 15 Congress Working Committee (CWC) meeting. His furtiveness was understandable. For, openly plumbing for an alliance with the BSP on its terms would have been as good as a tacit admission that the Congress is in a hopeless state. The rebels would have relished that. He did open a direct channel with Kanshi Ram to clinch the deal, but used Sharad Pawar to do the legwork. Senior Congress leaders claim Rao had personally been in touch with the BSP leadership earlier. What's more, they claim he extended financial support to the BSP candidate in Satna, Madhya Pradesh, to ensure Arjun Singh's defeat there.

The alliance might mean different things for Rao and the Congress. In a broad sense, Rao gains the image of a realistic, pro-Dalit leader. With the BSP, he acquires more bargaining power to bring the United Front (UF) Government—already at his party's mercy—further down to its knees. If the experiment is extended to the national level, that might mean an increase in Congress support in Parliament, adding to the UF Government's insecurity.

However, the alliance issue has divided the Congress at the state and national level alike. Within hours of the truncated news conference, rebellion-minded CWC member K. Karunakaran conferred with antiRao colleagues on constitutional means to get rid of the party president as he was "out to treat the party and the CWC with contempt and bypass them". That the talks with Kanshi Ram continued, even as the CWC was kept in the dark, showed that Rao cared more for his own image.

Rao is clearly not in favour of holding the AICC session on July 6 and 7, as had been decided earlier. This has spurred the rebels to contemplate—albeit halfheartedly—a move to requisition a session with a specific agenda: discussing the poll debacle, fixing responsibility on the leadership, and getting a new president elected. However, the rebels still are not confi-dent whether they have more than half of the 850-strong AICC behind them.

This tentativeness and the UF Government's growing discomfiture have given Rao a sense of success, at least temporarily. On June 28, he uncharacteristically lashed out at rebel leader Rajesh Pilot. He also warned of disciplinary action against some Madhya Pradesh Congress leaders, including 12 ministers charged with having worked against official candidates in this Lok Sabha elections—even if that meant surrendering the Congress Government in the state. Rao, riding piggy-back on the BSP, is equipped with another potent weapon: he can now paint those opposing the new tie up in anti-Dalit colours.

Kanshi Ram's pathological dislike for Defence Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav has brought Ajit Singh, another anti-Mulayam UP Congress leader, close to Rao. "Yes, if we have this alliance extended up to Delhi, and if Kanshi Ram wants us to withdraw support to the Government, we have to take him seriously," says an AICC General Secretary. "It will be a purely political move, not a reaction to the CBI move to interrogate Rao on corruption charges," he hastens to add.

Of course, the alliance does in no way automatically solve all of Rao's problems within a party he is fast losing grip of. "For Rao, acquiring a secular and pro-Dalit image is absolutely necessary in his attempt to continue in his two posts. His support to the UF Government on an anti-communal plank and his alliance with the BSP are moves in that direction—though purely tactical," says a CWC member opposed to Rao. "Otherwise, why could he not have involved Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Digvijay Singh, who also wanted a state-level tie up with Kanshi," asks he.

In any case, now that the alliance has been formalised in Uttar Pradesh, Digvijay may not have to wait very long for an encore in his state. He and Kanshi Ram already have an informal working relationship going in Madhya Pradesh, with 11 BSP MLAs extending support to the Congress Government on crucial matters.

RAO had reasons not to involve Digvijay in his negotiations with the BSP. The Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister has for long operated in that grey zone between loyalty and rebellion. Recently, he had chimed in with the dissidents in demanding that Rao give up one of his two posts; and Digvijay is seen in some quarters as a serious contender for a national role. Also, the MLAs of expelled Congress leaders Arjun Singh and Madhavrao Scindia have been backing his none-too-solid regime in order to stall theBJP from grabbing power—such visions of reunion can only have peeved Rao further.

Rao's June 28 threat to the Madhya Pradesh ministers shows he won't fight shy of a power struggle, certainly not relinquish his posts so easily. The loyalist camp comes in handy here—both for negotiations with the BSP and muscle-flexing within the party. On June 29, state Congress General Secretary K.P. Singh backed a tie up with the BSP, and sought the dismissal of the 12 ministers "owing allegiance to Arjun Singh and Scindia". "We will launch an agitation against them if no action is taken immediately," he said in a clear attempt to pressure Digvijay. Congress sources say K.P. Singh has the backing of Rao and Shyama Charan Shukla to launch such an agitation as this would bracket Digvijay with Scindia and Arjun Singh and project all of them as anti-Dalit 'feudals'.

There are predictable question marks on the alliance's longevity. After all, the Congress could secure only 8.1 per cent votes in Uttar Pradesh against the BSP's 20.6 per cent in the recent elections. And if the tie up results in an erosion of the BSP's Muslim support-base, Kanshi Ram might always opt for other partners. For, he counts on the Muslim vote—23 per cent of his nominees in the recent elections were Muslims. Rao looks to Kanshi for sheer survival in Uttar Pradesh, but for Kanshi it's a much larger question. Of course, he wants to crown Mayavati yet again in Lucknow, but more than that, he desires to be a bigger deciding factor in New Delhi.

For all this, he needs a hunting partner in sync with his 'Bahujan Samaj' principles, but not so much that he corners most of the prey—as former partner Mulayam Singh Yadav threatened to do over a year ago. The Congress serves the immediate purpose for him. If nothing else, he is spared the bizarre ideological gymnastics he had to perform to justify a tieup with the BJP. But Rao, heading a party in peril and himself under siege, can in no way be a permanent mascot. The fate of the alliance clearly hinges on what happens within the Congress in the coming months.