Just as the election campaign kicked off in UP, a senior BJP minister casually remarked in an interview that if the party retained its 57 seats in the state, it would solely be because of Vajpayee's charisma. If it lost any ground, then the state leadership would be to blame. Chief minister Kalyan Singh obviously felt offended.
Now that the shock of losing virtually most of its pocket boroughs in UP is sinking in, the knives are out for Kalyan. What is of deep concern for many party leaders is the steep drop - nearly 8 per cent - in the BJP's voteshare. With such an upheaval, the demand for Kalyan's ouster is becoming shriller by the day. Says a senior BJP legislator and an active dissident: "There's little doubt that Kalyan Singh has caused the maximum damage to the party."
Surprisingly, Kalyan wasted no time in accepting the responsibility of his party's poor performance in the state. Speaking to journalists last week, he said: "I alone own the complete moral responsibility for the debacle suffered by the BJP in UP."
The CM knows he's on a sticky wicket this time. Gone's his usual arrogantly confident expression. At the question of his removal in April this year, he'd haughtily remarked: "If a handful of legislators could raise the issue of change of leadership after every two months, no state government would survive for more than six months." He'd then stated that he saw no reason for his removal because neither was his style of functioning abrasive nor was there anything lacking in his administration.
Kalyan had been coming a lot under the microscope recently. A concerned Vajpayee had summoned him, admonished him before L.K. Advani and asked him to get his act together, just after the first phase of polling in UP. Kalyan on his part complied with Vajpayee's orders and for the record attended one public meeting after another.
Meanwhile, the BJP pulled out all stops to publicly demonstrate all was well. At a public meeting in Lucknow on the last day of the campaign, Advani in Vajpayee's presence even applauded the performance of the state government. "It was due to a lack of a clear majority in the Vidhan Sabha that Kalyan Singh may not have been able to do his best but we have no complaints against him," Advani had said. The BJP top brass kept insisting there'd be no change in the UP leadership even after the polls.
But post-election, it's been introspection time in the BJP. Not just at its Lucknow unit but also at the party headquarters. Just before leaving for Delhi on October 20, state BJP president Rajnath Singh said: "No single person should be held responsible for the party's performance." But he did
admit the BJP's loss could be due to some failings in the administration and the state government's poor performance in almost every basic public service, be it roads, electricity or water supply. Not only were these areas neglected but the CM, most inopportunely, antagonised government employees and teachers by either publicly ridiculing them or running down their demands.
What had seemed practically impossible to BJP troubleshooter K.N. Govindacharya, has happened. During the campaign, he'd said: "There's no anti-incumbency factor here. Besides, the voters are wise enough to realise they're voting for the Centre and not for the state." Today, most senior leaders have to accept they had underestimated voter reaction.
Despite the "no comments' or tongue-in-cheek remarks or even assertions that no one be singled out, it's evident to one and all that Kalyan has reached the fag - and probably sad - end of his innings. However, his ouster could do more harm than good during the assembly elections, which could be a lot earlier than the scheduled 2001. "But do you think having Kalyan Singh is going to do us any good? At least having him out will stop the bickering within the party," says a cabinet minister.
And fresh bickerings have already begun. Some leaders of the state coalition parties - particularly the Loktantrik Congress Party (lcp) and a few influential independents - have clearly stated that they see no reason why Kalyan needs to be removed. "We've had no problems with him. He has been approachable at all hours if we've had any serious problem," says minister of state Vivek Singh of the lcp. At a dinner hosted by him on October 20, several Thakur leaders informally decided that they wouldn't accept Kalraj Mishra, a Brahmin, as the new CM. Rajnath Singh, a Thakur, has already backed out of the race. "After all, no one can compel us to support a man like Mishra known for his Mafia connections," says Vivek Singh.
The main debate still revolves around whether the BJP high command will eventually dethrone Kalyan, a backward leader with considerable clout. If it does, it would definitely be quite humiliating for someone as touchy as Kalyan. He's time and again ruled out working in any other position but that of a BJP worker if he were to be removed from chief ministership.
Another issue of serious concern for the BJP is the repercussions of an upper caste leader replacing Kalyan. In a state riddled with caste complexes which have helped Mulayam Singh and Mayawati in striking deep roots, the move surely could have adverse political bearings. Kalyan's departure from the state's BJP politics is likely to raise more questions than answer any for the party's future prospects in a state.
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