IN western Uttar Pradesh, the key question being asked is whether the Ajit Singh-Mahendra Singh Tikait-Mulayam Singh Yadav axis will be able to win back the Jat voter and stop the onward march of the BJP? Also, will this new-found alliance affect results in the United Front's favour? And, most importantly, whether the honeymoon between Ajit Singh and Mulayam last beyond the assembly elections?
Surely the joining of hands of the two powerful Jat chieftains—Tikait and Ajit Singh—with the champion of the backward classes, Mulayam, has increased hopes in the UF camp. Owing to the fragmented leadership—and a strong Hindutva wave—the Jat voter had strayed into the BJP camp during the 1991 and 1993 assembly elections and despite the Samajwadi Party-BSP combine, it won nearly half the seats here.
But with the formation of the Bharatiya Kisan Kaamgar Party (BKKP), under the leadership of Ajit Singh backed by Tikait, there is a strong possibility of the majority of Jats coming back to the Ajit Singh fold. The BKKP has fielded 40 candidates in over 100 constituencies. In the rest, it is supporting UF partners.
To add to this, Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda's sops to farmers—Rs 30,000 subsidy on tractors, reduced power tariff from Rs 50 to Rs 40 per horsepower and reduction in fertiliser rates—have also struck a friendly chord with the farmers.
But nobody seems to be sure about how long Ajit Singh's liaison with the UF will last. There is a strong suspicion, especially among Muslims, that if the Jat leader wins enough seats, he may not hesitate in accepting BJP support to form the government in the state. Even his confidants are not sure about Ajit Singh's future line of action. "We can't remain with Ajit Singh if he decides to join hands with the BJP after the polls," says Tanvir Talib, bro- ther of Kawkab Hamid, the BKKP candidate from Baghpat.
So strong is the fear that the Bharatiya Kisan Union (BKU) leader Tikait had to personally assure fellow farmers in the monthly panchayat at Sisauli last week that Ajit Singh would not deviate and that Mulayam Singh Yadav would be the chief minister. He said: "maine Ajit ki naath phod rakhi hai, voh kahin nahin jata. (I have tamed him, he will not go anywhere.)"
For Tikait, the election has become a prestige issue. He has openly warned Valiyan Jats (the sub-caste of Jats of which Tikait is the chief) that anyone going against the general will of the khap (community) will not be tolerated. Since the BJP has put up two Valiyan candidates in Tikait's home district, Muzaffarnagar, he has reason to feel threatened.
And not all Jats are Tikait followers in any case. Jats of the Des khap can't tolerate Tikait as they have a rivalry with the Valiyans. The rift widened during 1986-87 when Tikait refused to attend a conclave organised by the Des khap. Says Sri Bhagwan of Bijrol village in Chhaprauli constituency in Meerut: "Tikait hamko phuti aankh bhi nahin bhata (we just can't stand Tikait)." The BJP is cashing in on this rivalry.
Apart from the Brahmins and the Thakurs, the BJP is banking on other castes like Sainis and Tyagis. Therefore, even after the Ajit-Tikait tie-up, the possibility of a split in Jat votes cannot be ruled out. The Ajit-Tikait-Mulayam alliance is going to be a surefire spoiler for BJP prospects in 15 to 20 seats in the Jat heartland. But in the absence of a concrete poll plank, caste rivalry has taken centrestage. Significantly, Mulayam played his cards judiciously and gave tickets to very few Muslims here— he has fielded three Muslims in four districts of Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar, Meerut and Ghaziabad—to prevent voting in favour of the BJP.
To counter Mulayam and to eat into his Muslim votebank elsewhere in the state, the BSP has fielded 53 Muslim candidates. Also, for the first time since its inception, the BSP has given tickets to Brahmins and Thakurs. In Dibai (Bulan-dshahr), where former chief minister Kalyan Singh is the strongest contender, the BSP has put up a Brahmin candidate. However, that will hardly affect Kalyan Singh as he enjoys the support of the majority Lodh community.
On the other hand, Mayawati, projected by the BSP as future chief minister, will probably face a tough challenge from the SP candidate, Vimla Rakesh, at Haroda. Although Dalits have a size-able strength, she cannot win without the support of Muslims, who seem to be aligned towards the SP. This despite Shahi Imam Abdullah Bukhari's fatwa in favour of the BSP.
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