Right now, only 10 of the 33 Congress MPs from the state seem inclined to join Pawar. To that add three pro-Pawar MPs from the Republican Party of India (rpi). This may not look impressive, but he enjoys the support of about 40 of the 80 Congress mlas. Then there's a group of 45 rebel Congressmen, those denied tickets in the past for acting against the high command. Of these, about 20 may throw in their lot with Pawar.
Indeed, his ouster comes at a high price. In the 13 years since Pawar merged his Congress(S) with the Congress(I), the party in Maharashtra had become synonymous with him. A galaxy of other satraps paled in his overweening presence. pcc chiefs had very little to do as the Congress went to the polls six times under Pawar's leadership. Even his critics acknowledge that there is no leader in the Maharashtra Congress who can recall all the 288 assembly constituencies in the state and reel off their caste configurations. Under the circumstances, they regard pcc chief Prataprao Bhosale as no match for Pawar, now that a split in the party is imminent.
'But you cannot call it a vertical split,'' protests mpcc general secretary Avinash Pande, who counts himself among the old-fashioned loyalists of the party high command. These loyalists are happiest at the turn of events and while worried at party prospects in the September polls, they believe it is about time that the party tests its mettle at the hustings without 'the manipulative domination that has been Sharad Pawar's trademark'.
'We are not just happy, we are relieved. In the last decade, most of the livewires in the state Congress have been pushed to the sidelines or had to seek greener pastures in New Delhi or elsewhere,' says Pande. This, according to Congressmen, is because ever since Pawar rejoined the Congress, all major power centres, party posts and plum jobs went to his supporters from the Congress(S).
It is the latter category which is now unequivocally casting its lot with Pawar as he seeks to consolidate the 'secular forces' under his banner. Those in fix are the ones who are not devoted to Pawar as such but have made their peace with him in the past decade. They are still considering their options - which is why Pande denies that the split could be termed 'vertical'. 'A faction will certainly move away from the official Congress. How much of a fraction that amounts to will be visible in a week or two.'
That is about the time Pawar promises it will take for him to consolidate a new front.He claims the support of like-minded parties across the country and even before dashing off his letter to Sonia had been closely studying the voting patterns and the percentages garnered by the secular formation. While in the Congress, he was of the opinion that unless the Third Front was effectively marginalised and kept within a limit of under six per cent of the secular vote, the Congress could have only a limited future in the country.
Now his attempt is obviously to ensure that the same regional parties draw out at least 20 to 25 per cent of the vote to effectively stymie Sonia's chances of making it at the polls. Many Congressmen still mulling over the turn of events fear he might just pull it off: not enough to form his own government but enough numbers to emerge as a kingmaker at the end of the polls. Says one such Congressman, 'I'm afraid Pawar could be tantalising and tempting the electorate with what might seem like a new brew. His party could have enough of a national character with as much regional flavour needed to cut into the Shiv Sena's appeal, which is already on the wane. Its secular character, on the other hand, clearly offers an option to voters fed up with the Sena-bjp alliance in Maharashtra.
Pawar supporters, hard put to defend his precipitation of the split in the Congress, point out that 'a lion cannot pretend to be a lamb for too long. He was pushed to the wall by some rootless wonders in the cwc and he could not have borne the humiliation for too long'. Such passionate defence of their leader notwithstanding, their downcast mien is enough indication of their privately-expressed apprehension that Pawar may have bitten off more than he can chew. He can certainly wreck the Congress prospects in Maharashtra - and by extension, in the rest of the country. But there's some doubt whether he can come up tops for himself and his supporters.
Current estimates, though too early, are that he could mop up around a dozen seats from Maharashtra, mostly from the west and pockets in Konkan, Vidarbha, Marathwada and Khandesh. This could well damage the Congress' prospects, considering that now the party has no tie-up with Mulayam Singh Yadav and the rpi is divided over the issue of support to Pawar. While rpi leader Prakash Ambedkar prefers an alliance with the Congress, the more effective stormtrooper of the Dalit forces - Ramdas Athavale - has given indications that he could go with Pawar's new front.
But Pawar detractors in the Congress point out that notwithstanding his larger-than-life image in the last decade, the Congress tally has steadily declined ever since he took charge of the party's campaign. 'We had 228 assembly seats out of 288 in '85. We have not been able to cross even the 150 mark with Pawar in charge. Now, therefore, is as good a time as any to attempt to repeat the 1978-80 experience when despite a split the Congress came up trumps,' says a senior Congress leader.
However, the current trend towards regionalism might have slightly altered the equations for the Congress, with the added handicap that most second-rung leaders of the party appear to be swinging Pawar's way. Leader of the opposition in the legislative council, Chhagan Bhujbal puts it diplomatically. 'The party needs both Sonia and Pawar,' he says. 'We cannot do without either.'
But now that Pawar's own gameplan has become evident, he seems to be casting his lot with the Maratha warlord. He did not respond to the summons from the cwc to attend a special meeting of all Congress Legislature Party leaders. With Pawar expelled, he says, 'the party is sure to split, because Pawar is certainly not going to return to the Congress after this.'
For Pawar it's now a do-or-die battle. What his supporters feared in the week before his expulsion was his possible isolation if the Congress did not act against the rebels. But Pawar obviously knew the Congress style of functioning only too well. The party obliged by sacking him much like Rajiv Gandhi did V.P. Singh a decade ago. 'Slavish sycophancy' and 'nationalism' are now Pawar's key words in the run-up to the elections. 'Only an Indian born in India can feel for the country, no foreigner can,' he says. Clearly, this is Pawar's bid for prime ministership. The alliances he strikes in the days to come could determine the success of his mission.
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