An Electoral Coup

Though the symbolism of these moves is significant, the BJP leadership seems more interested in the tangible benefits that are likely to accrue as a result of admitting the prominent Jharkhand leader in their midst. For one, in the Jharkhand region—comprising the Chotanagpur and Santhal Pargana areas of south Bihar—which elects 14 MPs and over 80 MLAs, Mahtos (Kurmis) account for around 24 per cent of the population. As BJP General Secretary Sushma Swaraj avers, "It (Mahto's induction) is going to make a big impact." 

Says another upbeat BJP leader: "The BJP has five Lok Sabha seats in the region at present. After the inclusion of Mahto and his supporters in the party, we are hoping for a clean sweep of all 11 seats in Chotanagpur." The basis for this confidence is the fact that the traditional BJP support base—upper castes, traders and city dwellers—would be augmented by the Mahtos. "The Mahto community is important not only because of its size, but also because of the spillover effect their voting pattern has on the tribals of the area," Mahto points out. In fact, the BJP is trying to ensure that electoral adjustments are worked out with other less influential Mahto leaders, such as Raj Kishore Mahto.

As for the three Lok Sabha seats in the Santhal Pargana, the BJP is hoping that only Shibu Soren will be able to retain his seat, or at worst his party will secure one more. No doubt, the basis for these calculations is the fact that the tribal population, the BJP's weakest link, has shrunk to between 28 and 32 per cent of Jharkhand's electorate.

But how does Mahto, whose one-point agenda has been the demand for a separate Jharkhand state, explain his decision to join the BJP, a party which has, in the words of a Ranchi-based party functionary, "neither the will nor the capacity to lead an agitation on the issue". Of course, the BJP has been paying lip-service to the cause of Vananchal—its name for the proposed state which has been criticised by all Jharkhand leaders. Mahto's defence is a reiteration of the BJP line: "The difference between my demand for Jharkhand and the BJP's support for Vananchal is akin to the difference between Bharat and Hindustan; it is only one of nomenclature."

Mahto's relations with other JMM leaders have been turning sour for some time now. He had a public and acrimonious falling-out with Soren and Suraj Mandal of the JMM after Soren's acceptance of the chairmanship of the Jharkhand Area Autonomous Council (JAAC) constituted by the Bihar government. At the time, Mahto had spoken of the "lack of representation to the Mahto community on the council". He was also furious at being excluded from the JAAC executive and termed the move a "sell-out".

For the BJP, of course, the development has been a major coup. The party is aware that despite the hype about being the only party with an "all India presence", anychance of emerging as a contender for power at the Centre depends on its performance in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. BJP leaders stress that while Mahto leaders will bolster the party's chances in south Bihar, an electoral adjustment with the Nitish Kumar faction of the Samata Party in the rest of the state could be crucial.

And while Mahto sounds confident about being able to "adjust to the discipline of the BJP" and is likely to command respect in the party as it has a considerable stake in Jharkhand, it will hardly be roses allthe way for him. Senior tribal leaders like Kariya Munda, vice-president of the BJP's state unit, have long felt that they do not have enough say in Jharkhand matters. And though the BJP leadership seems content that it has finally found a man who may be able to swing a large portion of south Bihar their way, just how the rank and file reacts to a leader being foisted on them remains to be seen.