All Aboard The Pollwagon

FOR the National Conference (NC) it was worth the wait. After much dilly-dallying and flexing of muscle by its chairman Farooq Abdullah, the NC decision this fortnight to participate in Jammu and Kashmir's assembly elections next month comes after the party succeeded in pressurising the UF Government through the Left parties to announce a series of development packages for the northern state. Though there has been no commitment on the autonomy issue from New Delhi, Abdullah and party are now in a position to claim that the sops offered to Jammu and Kashmir were due to their efforts. This is likely to be one of the trump cards that the NC will bank on to woo voters.

Being the moderate party with the largest mass base in the state, the participation of the NC will lend credibility to the poll exercise. The party, says Abdullah, will contest all 87 assembly seats. It will not enter into any poll alliance. Almost all the members of the NC working committee, which met in Srinagar on August 10, opposed the idea of an electoral alliance. Senior NC leaders described the party's alliance with the Congress in the 1987 assembly elections as a 'blunder' for which the party had to pay a heavy price. The consensus was that the NC should go on its own with restoration of the state's autonomy as its political agenda.

Though it won't have any tieup with other parties, sources close to the NC leadership suggested that the party has not closed the option of leaving some seats for like-minded parties and political leaders. The list of probables whom the NC may accommodate include state Janata Dal President Abdul Qayoom, CPM State Secretary Yusuf Tarigami and two dissident Congress leaders—Mian Bashir Ahmad and Moulvi Iftikhar Ansari. Bashir and Ansari have been openly siding with Abdullah and the former even refused to contest in the Lok Sabha elections to express solidarity with NC which had boycotted the polls. The two dissident leaders, it is learnt, are now thinking of quitting the Congress and fighting the elections as independents.

While the NC has managed sops from the Centre for Kashmir, Abdullah's victory would have been complete if Prime Minister Deve Gowda had also spelt out the autonomy package for the state. The NC chairman had earlier been categorical that his party would not participate in the polls unless New Delhi spelt out its commitment to granting autonomy to the state. Abdullah had to tone down this stance and has settled for welfare and development packages from the Centre.

This concession has not gone down well with a section of NC supporters who doubt New Delhi's sincerity visavis autonomy. Concern about its intentions on this issue had been voiced in the wake of Deve Gowda's recent statement that the Centre will have the final say in deciding the quantum of Kashmir's autonomy. This apprehension was compounded by Home Minister Inderjit Gupta when he stated in Srinagar that the recommendations of the assembly to be constituted in defining the quantum of autonomy must have the consensus of all members and only then would the Centre take a final decision.

Meanwhile, former home minister Mufti Mohammed Syeed's decision to rejoin the Congress has added a new dimension to the pre-poll scenario and will cause some alarm in the NC. The Mufti says his priority will be to build a strong political platform in the state which in the days to come can provide a viable alternative to the National Conference. The former home minister, it may be recalled, led the Congress in the worst of times and was responsible for making it a strong political force. Even his opponents agree that the Mufti has much organisational capabilities and his homecoming will help rebuild the Congress. The party says it has decided to field candidates in all 87 seats. But still, according to PCC chief Ghulam Rasool Kar, "there is room for adjustments with like-minded parties like the BSP".

While all mainstream parties have welcomed the polls, the All Party Hurriyat Conference (APHC) has dismissed the proposed polls as "another military exercise which will further aggravate the Kashmir problem rather than solve it". Party spokesman Prof Abdul Ghani, while ridiculing the idea of assembly elections in Kashmir, said: "It will be a repeat of the Lok Sabha polls when Indian soldiers forced people to stand in long queues outside polling booths while ballots were stamped inside by Government agents". Ghani made it clear that the Hurriyat will not take part in elections and indicated that the party will launch a campaign against it.

Reformed militant groups like Kukka Parrey's Awami League which had fielded its candidates for three Kashmir Lok Sabha constituencies, have also decided to boycott the polls. Kukka Parrey and Nabi Azad, who heads the Muslim Mujahideen, feel they have been "ditched by New Delhi" and that their participation in the elections is meaningless. These groups have also announced they will not extend support to any political party during the elections.

The next six weeks promise much action. Assembly elections are being held in Kashmir after a gap of nine years and with the participation of the National Conference the poll pattern, as witnessed in the Lok Sabha elections, is bound to change. And the Congress which bagged two of the three Parliamentary seats in the Valley may not enjoy the same measure of success.

Meanwhile, the final touches are being given to the security arrangements for the ensuing polls which will be held in four phases, spread over nearly 45 days. Additional forces are being deployed in Kashmir as the authorities fear attacks from separatist militants. Reports suggest that there will be over 1,000 candidates contesting the elections in the state and ensuring their safety will be a backbreaking task.