After The Duel, The Deep Freeze

FIVE days after he chose to boycott the Iftar dinner hosted by Congress chief Sitaram Kesri, Prime Minister H. D. Deve Gowda seemed to have realised that he was digging his own grave, even before the Congress party wanted it. It took only a tiny response gesture from Kesri to get Gowda to rethink and retreat. The occasion was again an Iftar dinner— this time hosted by Gowda at his 7- Race Course Road a day later, on January 25. The leader of the United Front regime’s biggest supporting party was absent— and somehow, the echo sounded louder than the original statement.

It was enough to send Gowda scurrying for cover. To get a truce brokered, he approached the best man for such matters— senior Congress Working Committee ( CWC ) member K. Karunakaran. The last days of January saw Gowda calling on Karunakaran twice, and more seemed in the offing. Nevertheless, the damage shows signs of outliving the control exercise. The high- pitched atmosphere has created an unsettled air, with speculation over the life of the Government affecting its normal functioning.

Happily, there are counter tendencies— despite all the surface tension, the fundamentals are unaltered. If the Government is still kicking, it is not because of Gowda’s successful diplomacy, but because of the clear lack of majority in favour of the Congress. It’s nearly taken for granted that the Congress won’t have the guts to go for a putsch rightaway. At this point, elections look remote.

"The Prime Minister, in his wisdom, chose not to attend my Iftar party. But I am not angry or happy about it. And it won’t be a valid reason for our withdrawing support to the United Front Government," Kesri told Outlook . "The CWC had decided to extend its support to keep the BJP away from power, and we are not going to make any compromise with forces of communalism."

To be sure, there were rumblings. At a meeting of the Congress Parliamentary Party ( CPP ) executive on January 24, some members insisted that the party withdraw its support to the Government without any loss of time. But the meeting ended with an understanding that the CPP executive— though it is free to express its opinion— is not the right forum for taking such decisions. "Yes, certainly, members have made their feelings known. At the same time, the CWC decision stands," says Tariq Anwar, the Congress chief’s political secretary. Adding, as a note of warning: "Of course, we will keep reviewing the Government’s performance."

When Gowda started making detente noises, he too mixed these up with loaded bargainspeak. During his Iftar party, Gowda denied any cold war and said he had met Kesri eight times after he took over. He also chose the occasion to sound "sympathetic" towards Kesri, hinting that the Government would bail him out in the CBI probe into the charge that he possesses wealth beyond his known source of income. This was also a sly allusion to the impending executive move to curb the CBI ’s power in probing political personalities, from which all sides would benefit. But Kesri made it clear that he would expect his party to back him rather than his having to depend on Gowda’s "magnanimity".

What seems to have worried Kesri more is the fact that Gowda has opened direct communication channels with many Congress leaders, Karunakaran and Sharad Pawar included. In the initial honeymoon days, Kesri had turned down Gowda’s suggestion that the Congress join his coalition. Yet, significantly, he repeated the offer during his meetings with the two leaders. Karunakaran also conveyed to Kesri Gowda’s message that he should nominate representatives to interact with the Government on policy-making and implementation.

THE Congress is very clear on the question of not joining the Government, and on stalling the BJP from coming to power," says party spokesman V.N. Gadgil. Personally, he says, he would prefer a clear mandate from the people. In his assessment, the UF will "collapse" because of its own contradictions, maybe by year-end. Concurs senior CWC member K. Vijaya Bhaskara Reddy: "If the Government falls under its own weight, we can’t help it. However, if elections are forced, the people know whom to vote for...the Congress alone can provide a stable government." He admits to "some irritants in the Congress-UF relationship" and says "it is for Gowda to iron them out".

Mirroring Gowda’s individual talks with Congress leaders, Kesri set in motion a parallel plan in cahoots with Pawar. He rushed Anwar to Mumbai on January 27 and got him to strike a deal with the Samajwadi Party of Mulayam Singh Yadav for the corporation elections there. Mulayam’s party, a UF constituent, has been soliciting Congress support to form a coalition government in Uttar Pradesh. Mulayam has even met Kesri, and there are indications that the latter may play ball. The pre requisite, however, is that Mulayam should be able to get at least 35-40 BSPMLAs to back him up. Consequent to the BSP’s continued dalliance with the BJP, Pawar had declared the Congress’ alliance with that party in UP as infructuous.

"This (tie-up with the SP) is something the state unit should decide according to its own requirements," said Kesri, in typically cloaked fashion. For, the Congress assessment is that an arrangement with Mulayam will come through, but despite resistance from  the UP unit, mainly its boss Jitendra Prasada. The tie-up has Pawar’s blessings for, with the SP’s substantial presence in the Mumbai metro politan area, he finds a dependable ally against the Shiv Sena-B J P combine.

Clearly, both sides don’t mind a bit of poaching. "Gowda’s meeting with Congress leaders bypassing Kesri is an equal and opposite reaction to what Kesri has been doing by trying to wean away Laloo Prasad Yadav and Mulayam," explains a Union minister belonging to the Janata Dal. Corresponding tension among the UF partners was inevitable. In fact, it was only Gowda’s political horse sense that helped him turn a hostile situation in his favour.

At the steering committee meeting on January 16, Mulayam had demanded that Gowda quit the UF leadership as he was too preoccupied with his job as the Prime Minister. Gowda promptly agreed to the suggestion, and requested CPI(M) General Secretary H.K.S. Surjeet or Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) leader G.K. Moopanar to take over the mantle. Surjeet managed to stall the move, but Gowda’s gesture had the desired result within the UF.

For, despite Jyoti Basu’s well-known misgivings, the CPI(M) is not inclined to head the ruling Front. And Moopanar knows the position offered to him would never have come to him if he were in the Congress. Almost spurning an offer to reunite with the Congress, he chose instead to invite that party to join the UF. "The time has not come to discuss the TMC’s merger with the Congress," he says. This means the TMC, a breakaway faction of the Congress, is in no hurry to reconsider its association with the UF (see interview). "Moopanar has belied our optimism. We believed he was going to come to us sooner or later," a senior AICC functionary told Outloo k. One point of disagreement is economic policy. The Left may think the UF is only carrying on Congress policies, but Kesri has been strident in his criticism on this front. The TMC, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram’s party, is naturally irked.

At the steering committee meeting, Chidambaram was grilled on his agenda. The Left wanted the UF to desist from raising private equity participation in the Maruti Udyog Ltd, opening up the print and electronic media to foreign players, allowing the Tata - Singapore Airlines agreement, and privatising the insurance sector. This, perhaps, was expected. The real source of Chidambaram’s agony became clear as he told C P P secretary Mrityunjay Nayak at a January 26 function that the Congress criticism is unfair. In UF circles, Chidambaram is considered more pro reforms than Manmohan Singh himself. Singh recently admitted his open-door policy in the power sector was a mistake; Chidambaram is yet to respond.

With his bureaucratic background, Singh has shown on occasion that he can adjust to political bosses and their changing approaches, in contrast to a rigidly pro-liberalisation Chidambaram. Yet, Kesri made a statement in Bhopal recently: that the economic policy should give equal emphasis on welfare measures and the anti-poverty programme, implying that the way it was  implemented in the Rao regime lacked these thrusts. 

Economic policy has only given an ideological varnish to the Congress’ deteriorating ties with the UF, sparked by the souring Kesri-Gowda relations. And these personal differences are getting more and more complicated, entangled in a web of intra- and inter-party politics and ideology. "In the worst case, we can withdraw support and leave the Left and parties like TMC and DMK with a fait accompli: support us, or face elections or a BJP comeback," says a CWC member. "The anti-BJP bias of most political parties cannot be overlooked by the President," he adds, hypothetically.

Of course, the Congress is nowhere near such a move, but if Gowda pushes it too far, it could be a natural fallout. "It all depends on how fast and how honourably Gowda improves his relationship with Kesri," he adds. There are other factors too: like Kesri’s unfinished task of rejuvenating the party. In Punjab, the party faces a certain defeat in the assembly elections. At the moment, Kesri’s efforts are directed at getting elected as party chief in organisational elections before May. His re-election does look imminent. What he also requires is a friendly CWC, so that he can have his way on party matters and on ties with the UF. Till then, Gowda seems saddled, though not so firmly, in the throne. Which will mean more compromises, and more visits to Karunakaran and others, if not Kesri himself.