AFTER having endured four elections for various political bodies in 18 months, Karnataka in all probability will not go through another major poll till November 1999, doubts on the stability of the United Front Government notwithstanding. But any outsider visiting Prime Minister Gowda's home state last week couldn't have been faulted for presuming it was in the throes of another political upheaval.
The ruling Janata Dal dispensation in the state organised a Samvardhana Samaavesha (consolidation conference)—even as expelled party leader Ramakrishna Hegde kicked off a statewide barnstorming tour, ostensibly to test the waters for a planned political rebirth. The crowds came in droves, some to yell at Chief Minister J.H. Patel for the steep hike in power tariffs and others to express sympathy for a 'wronged' Hegde. A sober Patel appealed for "cooperation to run the government and unity in the party". Theatrics and rhetoric held centrestage as Hegde and his supporters, in their pocket-boroughs in northern Karnataka, sought the shoulders of the masses to weep on. And as the pretenders for supremacy drew the battlelines for yet another chapter of muscle-flexing in Karnataka's chequered political past, there were signs of history repeating itself to end another Janata experiment, if only in 1999.
It was no coincidence that both shows of strength were kicked off on the first day of July. The political stick-rubbing started with the announcement of dates by Hegde and his supporters after the successful workers' conference in Bangalore on June 22. Patel joined issue by scheduling the Consolidation Conference in Davanagere in central Karnataka two days ahead of Hegde's launch of his statewide tour but later rescheduled it to coincide with the launch. Attempts were made to mobilise large crowds, what with the immense government machinery at the ruling party's disposal.
The much-hyped consolidation effort, however, turned out to be a poor show of organisational skills and a reflection of the ruling party's inappropriate timing. Hardly 65,000 people (as against the expected 200,000) came out to hold a candle for the party. Those who did vented their spleen against Patel's decision to hike power tariffs across the board and introduce a Rs 300 levy per horsepower of electricity consumed by agricultural pumpsets. And speaker after speaker had little to offer sunburnt crowds, nonagenarian former chief minister S. Nijalingappa's statesmanly appeal for an end to infighting in the Dal being the lone exception. "We wanted to make this a grander show and get the Prime Minister to participate. But the coming Lok Sabha session and the Budget session of the state assembly gave us very little time," admits Patel.
In fact, Samvardhana Samaavesha was a disappointment even for those who came to listen to some spleen-venting against Hegde, keeping in tune with the ongoing verbal battle between the former chief minister and the party following his expulsion last month. Less than a week earlier, Gowda had devoted almost an entire address to party workers in Bangalore to demolish Hegde's claims and accusations against the party and himself. But at Davangere, not a word was uttered about Hegde, his expulsion or his tirade against the party. "We decided not to raise the issue as ignoring him is the best way to weaken him," says a senior minister. "What is more significant now is administering the state and completing pending projects—which is why they formed a major part of the chief minister's address. " If at all the conference made a point, it did so in registering the attendance of all ministers in Patel's council, including half-a-dozen Hegde loyalists.
Hegde though had no plans to disappoint the crowds and, in fact, went out of his way to heap abuses on legislators—calling them among other things 'impotent', 'selfish' and 'slaves' for 'blindly' endorsing his expulsion. Jeevaraj Alva, Hegde's Man Friday who was waiting to return to the Dal from the BJP before Hegde's expulsion, spared no efforts to wash dirty linen in public. Known for his rabble-rousing abilities besides organisational skills, Alva made indiscreet references to the personal life of Hegde's friend-turned-foe, Union Minister S.R. Bommai, in his hometown Hubli, while similarly attacking local Dal leaders in other districts. Hegde was unilaterally described as the successor to the political legacy of Jayaprakash Narayan while the expelled leader himself devoted much of his time rebutting the accusation that he was a jealous loser venting his frustration over the elevation of his rival to the topmost executive office in the country. "
There is a disinformation campaign on to make out that I am jealous about Deve Gowda becoming Prime Minister. The issue doesn't concern personalities but has to do with ideology and political values," Hegde repeated ad nauseum at meeting after meeting. And despite the northern districts being his stronghold in the state, the response was overwhelming and he described the crowds as the "most cherished sights ever". "This is a sympathy wave against the wrong done by the party and the hostility has been compounded by their affection for me," Hegde noted midway through his tour. And as Alva added: "The response has been tremendous. In fact, we have had to change plans about holding meetings in closed halls in several towns as the crowds were too large to be accommodated inside."
HEGDE though said little about concrete political plans of his newly-formed Rashtriya Navanirmana Vedike and stuck to his now familiar refrain on democratic and caste-free politics. The announcement about his political future is scheduled to be made on August 29 when he celebrates his 70th birthday, at a rally in Bangalore.
Not surprisingly, the response to Hegde's tour has a large section of the Dal in Karnataka worried. "Though it's not very surprising that Hegde is attracting large crowds, considering the pull he has in the northern districts, it's a cause for concern for the party," admits a senior Karnataka minister. "The only consolation is that there are no elections in the near future. Whenever elections are held, I feel they will be a repeat of 1989 when we faced a division in our votebanks and lost badly."
But Gowda loyalists in the state are unfazed by the adulation for Hegde. "The Dal owes its victory in the recent several elections to the social justice plank. And the majority of voters who support the social justice plank are not with Hegde," senior minister and Gowda confidant P.G.R. Sindhia told Outlook. "Besides, Hegde is also losing whatever support he had among Muslims as he is giving an impression that he is not averse to a tie-up with the BJP. So there is no need for any anxiety."
While that view is part of constantly changing arithmetic calculations in politics, independent observers caution that complacency on the part of the ruling dispensation could be detrimental. With Sharad Pawar reportedly cobbling a Congress-Hegde-Bangarappa alliance in Karnataka and Hegde seemingly not averse to a tie-up with the BJP, it won't be surprising if Hegde does to the Dal what Bangarappa did to the Congress—divide the party's votes in the state. Which could once again prove that the greatest enemy of Janata experiments in the country is unrestrained ambition and oversized egos of its leaders.
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