A dangerous nexus between politicians and militants came to light with the arrest of Mohit Hojai, the Chief Executive Member of the North Cachar Hills Autonomous Council, on charges of allegedly giving INR 10 million to two persons for purchasing arms for the BW. The case was referred to the National Investigation Agency (NIA). On November 17, NIA charge-sheeted Mohit Hojai and 13 others, including the BW's 'chief' Jewel Gorlosa and 'commander-in-chief' Niranjan Hojai in this connection. The NIA also prayed before the court to summon Hojai, who is lodged in a designated camp after surrendering on October 2, 2009, along with other cadres of the outfit.
The ULFA received a succession of its worst setbacks with the arrest of 'chairman' Arabinda Rajkhowa, 'deputy commander-in-chief' Raju Barua, 'foreign secretary' Sashadhar Choudhury and 'finance secretary' Chitraban Hazarika. The ULFA 'chairman' and others are now in the judicial process in Guwahati, after being handed over to the Assam Police. These developments have largely been the consequence of a process orchestrated by the Centre to secure the return of the leadership of militants operating in the Northeast to Indian soil with assistance from Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed's friendly regime in Bangladesh.
The succession of arrests in 2009 have occurred after a gradual process of attrition that has decimated the top ULFA leadership over the years. Vice Chairman' Pradip Gogoi was arrested on April 8, 1998, and is currently in judicial custody at Guwahati. 'General Secretary' Anup Chetia is under detention in Dhaka, after being arrested on December 21, 1997. The outfit's founding member and ideologue Bhimakanta Buragohain, 'publicity secretary' Mithinga Daimary and 'assistant secretary' Bolin Das were arrested during the military operations in Bhutan in December 2003. Earlier, 'cultural secretary' Pranati Deka had been arrested at Phulbari in the West Garo Hills district of Meghalaya on October 25, 2003. Crucially, the ULFA received a crippling blow when its '28th Battalion', its most lethal formation in recent years, split down the middle with most top commanders and cadre surrendering, and declaring themselves in favour of a negotiated solution to the 'Assam problem'.
The top leadership of the group has not changed much since its early years, and a second rung of leaders has not visibly evolved. Nevertheless, there is certainly a fair strength of foot-soldiers still available to the group's 'commander-in-chief' Paresh Baruah, both within the Northeast, and in neighbouring countries, including Bangladesh and Myanmar.
Sashadhar Choudhury and Chitraban Hazarika, on November 15, had claimed that Paresh Baruah was the main leader currently running the group. Baruah, they disclosed, was constantly shifting between China, Myanmar and Thailand, and still had strong contacts in China. They further confessed that Paresh Baruah was not just procuring arms from Chinese manufacturers, but also selling them to other militant groups such as the NDFB, National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT), All Tripura Tigers Force (ATTF) and the Communist Party of India – Maoist (CPI-Maoist). These revelations by two top ULFA leaders corroborate Union Home Secretary G.K. Pillai's claims, on November 8, 2008, that "Chinese are big smugglers... suppliers of small arms. I am sure that the CPI-Maoist also gets them."
Curiously, at a time when the ULFA is under its worst existential threat since its formation on April 7, 1979, it is the government – both at the centre and the state – that appears most desperate to push for a negotiated solution. The result has only been to encourage increasing inflexibility on the part of the ULFA leadership – both those in custody and outside. Arrested leaders have been grandstanding – under guard of their benign police escorts – making public declarations of their determination to continue their 'fight for sovereignty', and refusing to accept any talks while any ULFA leader is in jail. Meanwhile, Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi declared, on December 3, "I have all along been convinced that the problem of insurgency has to arrive at some sort of political solution…If Paresh Baruah comes that is well and good but my personal view is that a dialogue can begin without him. This is also the desire of the people of Assam who favour a peaceful solution of insurgency."
However, three prominent jailed ULFA leaders — 'vice-chairman' Pradip Gogoi, former 'publicity secretary' Mithinga Daimary and 'cultural secretary' Pranati Deka — reportedly foresee a bleak future for the peace talks if Arabinda Rajkhowa initiates such a move sidelining Paresh Baruah and 'violating' ULFA's 'constitution'. At the moment, the chances of Paresh Baruah joining talks within pre-conditions laid down by the Union government appear remote, and he has released a message through a member of the People's Consultative Group (PCG), Hiranya Saikia, asserting that the struggle for Assam's sovereignty would continue even if some members of the rebel group come forward for talks by giving up the demands and ideology of the ULFA.
Other than the BW and ULFA, another prominent formation that has remained active in Assam is the anti-talks faction (Ranjan Daimary group) of the NDFB. This group killed 16 civilians and three SF personnel in 2009. In one of these incidents, an Army Colonel, S.M. Perumal, and a trooper were killed in an IED blast at Chariduar in the Sonitpur district. A number of abduction and extortion cases have also been registered by the Police against NDFB cadres. SF operations against the group have resulted in 61 militant fatalities in 2009. There has also been a series of surrenders in the recent past, with at least 63 militants from the anti-talks faction laying down arms thus far in 2009. Among these, 42, including a number of 'corporals' and 'lance corporals', mostly from the outfit's "4th battalion", surrendered before the Assam Police at Mushalpur in Baksa district on January 13. "The organisation no longer has the old ideology and we have lost confidence in the leadership. So we decided to surrender," 27-year-old 'corporal' Dino Boro is reported to have confessed. There have also been reports that Ranjan Daimary was arrested by the Bangladesh Security Forces in early November, but these remain officially unconfirmed.
Parliamentary elections in Assam were conducted in two phases on April 16 and April 23, 2009. An estimated 62 per cent votes were cast. Polling was, by and large, peaceful except for some minor incidents of militancy-related violence.
After the serial bomb blasts of October 30, 2008, and January 1, 2009, the state government had tried to strengthen security measures in Assam. On January 10, the Assam Legislative Assembly passed the Assam Preventive Detention (Amendment) Act, 2009, increasing the period of detention without trial of any person hindering the security of the state from six months to two years. The amendment changed section 13 of the existing Assam Preventive Detention Act, 1980. The amendment stated that a state government officer, not below the rank of secretary or district magistrate, if satisfied, could order detention of any person with a view to prevent him from acting in any manner prejudicial to the security of the state, maintenance of law and order and also maintenance of supplies and services essential to the community. Further, on January 18, it was decided to establish four anti-terrorism training schools in Assam. The then Director General of Police (DGP), G.M. Srivastava, stated, "The training schools would certainly add teeth to the anti-terror operations in the state and the implications of the same would be there to be seen in other states of the North East." The Assam Police is also reported to have prepared a list of organisations, including Non-governmental Organisations (NGOs), which are allegedly providing support – including finances – to ULFA, especially its '709th battalion'. A senior Police official disclosed, "Most of these organisations have their operations in lower Assam. They have been paying to the ULFA in recent times. We have the names of a few such agencies and are investigating their credentials. We will go after them once we have a watertight case." The names of these organisations were found in a diary recovered from a spot at Kalagaon in Udalguri district early in April 2009, where ULFA leader Akash Thapa had a narrow escape, he added. The Assam government, on April 28, also initiated action against a leading tea company for aiding a militant outfit and has also taken action against government officials accused of diverting development funds to the rebels.
The big story emerging from Assam in 2009 is the disarray of among the most important militant groups operating in the state. Augmenting counter-terrorism co-operation between India and Bangladesh has created panic among these outfits, who had long taken their safe havens and state support in Bangladesh for granted. With the latest arrests and handing over to Indian authorities of militant leaders like Shashadhar Choudhury, Chitrabhan Hazarika, Arabinda Rajkhowa and Raju Barua, who have led a lethal terrorist campaign for the last 30 years, the arrest of at least 494 militants and 732 surrenders during 2009, along with some of the leading militant groups such as BW and UPDS seeking to enter a negotiation process, there have certainly been watershed changes in the state. It remains to be seen whether the government will display the necessary wisdom to consolidate these advantages, or will waste them through ill-conceived initiatives or a lapse into complacence.