Civil society, intelligentsia and Black Coats stand up to Musharraf; Benazir, the US give him tacit support. Will Pakistan's night be long?
But, obviously, the judicial order has no restraining influence on the executive. With the Constitution suspended, judges countrywide are required to take an oath of allegiance to the PCO. Those who won't, forfeit their right to sit on the bench. Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar is sworn in as the new chief justice. Most Supreme Court judges demonstrate steadfast resolve: 13 out of 17 refuse to take oath. It's a minority of high court judges the executive manages to wean away: only 13 out of 31 judges in Punjab, four out of 31 judges in Sindh, and seven out of 13 judges in the nwfp agree to take oath. In Balochistan, though, all five judges take Musharraf's side.
So, where does Pakistan go from here? Will the people rise to resist Musharraf? Most analysts agree about the disenchantment against him running deep. As former senator Shafqat Mahmood says, "By imposing what amounts to a martial law, Musharraf has pitched himself, and by extension the army, against all civil and legal institutions of the country. He has also alienated what remained of his support among the intelligentsia and civil society. This darkness at high noon can't last. The judges, by not taking oath, the lawyers and the civil society by resisting, have already shown the way. The media is standing by them. This is one battle the generals are sure to lose."
A political movement, however, can succeed only under the guidance of political leaders who can deploy their party apparatus to articulate the popular disenchanment. But Pakistan's political class remains divided. Former PM Nawaz Sharif remains in exile; it's difficult for him to galvanise the party apparatus to exploit the discontent. The Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, the umbrella grouping of religious parties, remains fractious, its support base is limited, and its leaders still suspected of playing footsie with Musharraf (see Nawaz Sharif interview).
Indeed, most analysts feel it is only Benazir Bhutto who can lead the resistance against Musharraf, her party alone has the capacity to launch a mass movement. But will she sever ties with Musharraf? (See box above.) Noted The Nation, "PPP Chairperson Benazir Bhutto remains non-committal, except for paying lip service by terming the imposition of emergency and PCO 'yet another martial law' and demanding the reversal of the decision. Despite the demand from other opposition parties to launch a joint struggle for the restoration of democracy, she has not so far given any call to her own party workers." But these are early days, she could well join the movement against Musharraf.
The other factor in the political game are the international players, particularly the United States. The Netherlands was quick to announce suspension of aid; the Pentagon cancelled defence talks with Pakistan. The US ambassador in Islamabad, Anne W. Patterson, barged into the Chief Election Commissioner's office demanding that elections be held on schedule and that election observers from her country would be on the ground by November 20.