Sometime this week, the Washington-based Federation of American Scientists (FAS) plans to put up satellite images of Indian and Pakistani nuclear and missile facilities up on their website, www.FAS.org. The pictures, taken by the newly-launched iknos satellite owned by SpaceImaging, will have a one-metre resolution.
"We anticipate orders of about half-a-dozen images of nuclear and missile facilities in India and Pakistan this week, and another half-dozen images within the next week or two," says John Pike, main analyst and webmaster at FAS. "Although SpaceImaging is an American company that must obey US export control laws, which include restrictions on export of products to some countries such as North Korea, and are legally prohibited from acquiring or selling imagery of Israel, just about anyone else can buy imagery of just about any place, if they can afford the multi-thousand dollar price of the image," adds Pike.
Indian defence officials, however, are obviously tightlipped about whether theyve bought these images. Some even wonder how reliable they would be. "Were I to put up a picture of an army or airforce base, and insist that the barracks actually have nuclear missiles in them...how will anyone know? Since theyre defence installations, you cant just barge in to check...."
But the FAS, which was founded in 1945 by scientists who built the first atomic bomb and is sponsored today by nearly 50 Nobel laureates, is unlikely to risk its credibility over this. How then will such images affect national security? "Not much," says the defence ministry official. After all, "the Americans already have satellites capable of less than one-metre resolution, but they were still clueless about our N-tests..."
An mea official, however, warned that such information, if true, could be useful to terrorists and anti-national elements. He adds: "As for us, we already have a reasonably good idea of Pakistani (and Chinese) missile bases, just as they too must be aware of ours." Says Pike: "On balance, such satellite imagery improved the security of the US and the Soviet Union during the Cold War; I think it has the same potential for India and Pakistan."
Air Vice Marshal Kapil Kak, deputy-director at idsa, however, thinks the comparison to the Cold War scenario is flawed. "Thats because there are more than two protagonists now. In the new world order, such an attempt must be seen as intrusive."
For Dr Brahma Chellaney, professor of security studies at the Centre for Policy Research, "the utility of such sites is decreasing fast. Theres a lot of stuff available commercially from French and American satellites. So such information on a website cant compromise our security in any way. Whats disturbing is that western organisations are using western commercial satellites to procure such data on countries on their target list. But while information on democratic countries like India and Russia is available easily, its tougher in the case of nations like Israel, China, North Korea and Pakistan."
What does the FAS feel about Indias N-tests? "This was evidently a major setback for stability in the region, and a major setback on the road to controlling the nuclear danger," says Pike. Reacting to allegations that the FAS was a "CIA-watchdog group" (as described by AP reporter John Diamond soon after Indias N-tests), Dr Frank Von Hippel, Princeton University professor and director of the FAS nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament project, retorts: "No US government organisation has ever offered FAS funds. Its supported by its members and by foundations. We criticise US policy in the nuclear area and bring political pressure for improvements more often than we promote it."
"Id add that the FBI harassed at least the first generation of FAS members during the McCarthy era," says Dr Ramana V. Mani, also of Princeton University, who has written on the fallout of N-explosions, including an assessment of the consequences of such an explosion in Mumbai. Chellaney perhaps has the last word on the issue: "If these organisations are so concerned about nukes, why cant they put up images of the American arsenal as well?"
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