As the Parliament gets down to conducting business, one issue hastemporarily gone off the political radar screen in India: the IAEA vote onIran. Just a few days ago, it looked as if a first class political crisiswas building up over the vote that was to come up in the November 24 IAEAboard meeting where one of the agenda points was Iran.
The Left parties had demanded in no uncertain terms that the government must explainthe way it was going to vote in the IAEA on Iran. They had alsodeclared that the least the government should do is to abstain. A sectionof the Left had wanted the government to revise its stand from the one adopted in the last Board meeting, where New Delhi had votedagainst Iran, albeit with some reservations which it made clear in itsexplanation of vote.
It has become clear that the IAEA is not sending the Iran matter to the UN Security Council. There are many reasons for this.For one, theUnited States has scaled down and moderated its political hostility towardsIran by agreeing to the broad concept of allowing Iran’s uranium to beenriched for its power purposes in Russia, a country that has huge stakesin Iran. The domestic political situation in the United States is a factorin this. George Bush is finding the going rough on matters pertaining to acountry that is Iran’s neighbour: Iraq.
The President of the United Statesknows also that there is some serious opposition to the US idea of takingthe Iran matter to the UN Security Council from two other Permanent Members: China and Russia. So there is no point expending political energies to takeit there yet. The EU 3 have also not pushed the vote this time, and, didnot even come up with a draft based on which the vote could be conducted.
The United States also did not want to open another front which will causesome serious political haemorrhaging. With things in Iraq going badly forthe United States and with the attendant Congress scrutiny, the UnitedStates probably finds it prudent to put off brinkmanship for another day.
There could be another reason for this as well. The composition of the IAEABoard of governors has changed and the new entrants include, among others,Cuba and Belarus. Analysts who watch the scene closely say that if the votehad been conducted, there would have been more abstentions than there werethe last time, at the very least, which would politically have been a bitof a dampener.
The Russians have emerged in the forefront of diplomacy with Iran. And somehope is being pinned on the efforts undertaken by Moscow to persuade Iranto see some merit in exploring some via media on the enrichment issue.Iran’s behaviour itself has taken some of the heat off the issue for themoment. It has allowed inspections of one military facility and has madeavailable some scientists to be questioned on the issue. Overall, itsco-operation has gone up, but how significantly is not clear.
What isclear, however, is that Iran has also responded by cutting off thepossibility of any future inspections by the IAEA by getting suitabledomestic legislation passed. According to the stance it has now taken, ifthe IAEA Board were to refer the matter to the United Nations SecurityCouncil, Iran would begin activities that it has so far abstained from.From that point on, it would be difficult to get a handle on the issue. TheUN would have to move towards sanctions and then things would slide to thepoint where North Korea was when it walked out of its internationalcommitments and understanding. It would enormously complicate an alreadymessy region.
So far as India is concerned, its diplomatic efforts seem limited tomonitoring the situation. Beyond that its influence in the matter isarguably tenuous. The last time, the Iran vote came about, it was donemainly to send a signal to the US Congress that New Delhi was a responsiblenuclear power and did not want another nuclear power in the region. Thevote also reflected some political anxiety to be seen by the Americanlegislators that New Delhi was jettisoning some earlier posturing on Iranso as to be seen as a maturing power.
If it had come to voting, the government would have had to balance its needs to conduct normallegislative business - given the Left ultimatum that the government reverseits stand on Iran - with the government’s perceived need for America todeliver on the July nuclear deal.
Now everybody is breathing a bit easierbecause the moment of the vote has passed without event, which is what theUPA-Left co-ordination committee was told earlier this week. But the matteris by no means resolved. The Left had wanted the government to make clearhow it intended to behave on the matter. As it transpired, the government did not have to show its hand. It remains to be seen what happens when thematter comes up again.
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