AS regional structures on the political world map take new shape, Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto has accused Australia of treating India as the most favoured nation in South Asia. Her angry comments are a reaction to Foreign Minister Alexander Downer's statement that Australia wants India in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the security grouping that includes South-east Asia, the US, Japan, China and Australia.
Demanding evenhandedness, Bhutto told a newspaper that unless Pakistan is given wider recognition in the region, her proposed visit to the country may be can-celled. Pakistan is now seeking membership to the ARF as well as the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum (APEC).
On its part, Australia says it will support India's entry into APEC as and when the moratorium on membership is lifted. "We are happy about (Australia's) decision," says B.B. Tyagi, India's deputy high commissioner in Canberra. A final ruling on the matter is expected to be taken in the Philippines this November.
If Tyagi is correct, it is a considerable coup for India in the face of regional opposition to its involvement in the forum. In fact, successive Australian governments have skirted the issue in the past because of widespread cynicism about New Delhi's ability to play a constructive role in regional groupings. Meg Gurry, a lecturer of politics at La Trobe University, says there are concerns in Canberra that India will use the forum to garner support against Pakistan. "Even if Pakistan is not in APEC, India will still try to shore up support. And this is exactly what other members don't want—to use the forum for their own squabbles. And if Pakistan does get in, then those two will be fighting across the table all the time."
India's relations with Australia have had their ebbs and flows since 1947. Former prime minister Malcolm Fraser did his bit to boost ties, while another ertswhile prime minister Bob Hawke developed close personal ties with Rajiv Gandhi. Two years ago, a government report called 'India's economy at the Midnight Hour' detailed the extent to which Australia could gain from the opening up of the Indian economy. Figures from 1993-94 show that two-way trade with India stood at about (Australian) $1 billion and it was Australia's 19th largest trading partner.
Pakistan, being much smaller in size as well as a suspected training ground for Muslim fundamentalists, has been one step removed from achieving a major status in the region. Says Gurry: "Pakistan has always been the poor relative compared with India, and all the military dictatorships haven't helped." In 1994, Pakistan was ranked as Australia's 36th largest trading partner with two-way trade standing at about (Australian) $36 million.
The sale of 50 second-hand Mirage fighter planes to Islamabad in April 1990 for (Australian) $36 million, is regarded by analysts as the most notable exchange between the two countries in recent times. The sale directly contradicted efforts by the Department of Foreign Affairs to develop closer ties with India at the time and angered New Delhi. South Asia expert Robin Jeffrey believes it was an example of the left hand being ignorant of the actions of the right hand: "The deal went through because of some misunderstanding between the two departments. The Australian line all along was that the planes were very old and not likely to do anybody much harm and were more than likely to be cannibalised for spare parts."
There are unconfirmed reports that the planes have, in fact, been upgraded. I took a long time for South Block to put the matter behind it. Jeffrey says the sale of the Mirages may be one unspoken reason for Downer's recent overtures to India, although Indian officials insist that the matter has been long forgotten.
If Pakistan does not get Australia's support for entry into the regional fora, it might find that sponsor in China. And Beijing's voice can't be ignored by either Asia or the West. "China has links with Pakistan and might start lobbying for Pakistan to be in APEC, particularly if it feels that Pakistan would be a way of neutralising the Indian voice," says Gurry. "If India uses the forum to tackle China, and when there is pressure from China, you just have to sit up and listen."
The containment of China has been suggested as one reason for the new and controversial security agreement between Australia and Indonesia. The military treaty signed last December contradicts the fundamental philosophy of the NonAligned Movement, of which Indonesia is a founding member. The treaty has brought criticism from Indonesians themselves and reports have it that Jakarta is having second thoughts prior to its ratification, although Australia believes the agreement will go through. So while the game of oneupmanship continues between India and Pakistan on all regional matters, a much bigger game will finally determine their places on the new map.
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