If the sudden decision, announced on April 21, 2003, by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)topull out of the peace process caught most observers by surprise, it was because they had failed to heed thedirect and indirect warning signals. The direct warning signals came from the LTTE, which had expressed itsunhappiness at being left out of the international donor conference in Washington on April 14. But ironically,the indirect warning signals came from the satisfaction of the Sri Lanka government that it had achievedsuccess at the same Washington aid conference from which the LTTE had been barred. Up to the time of theWashington meeting, the Government and the LTTE had made joint appeals to the international community.
By stating that it was suspending the peace talks and would not be attending the donor aid conference in Tokyoscheduled in June, the LTTE has sought to apply a measure of pressure on the Government. It is aware that theGovernment is banking a great deal on the Tokyo conference, to revive the economy and offer a substantialpeace dividend to the people. The consensual approach between the government and LTTE had been the key factorin the mobilisation of international aid to reconstruct the country. Any conflict between them could lead to aweakening of this international support.
The LTTE has, however, also been careful in the statement it issued regarding its decision to suspend itsparticipation in the peace negotiations, which was qualified by announcement that it would continue with thepeace process and honour the ceasefire agreement. It is clear, consequently, that there is no danger ofthe ceasefire collapsing and war breaking out. Unfortunately, there is a considerable apprehension among thepeople that the peace process is indeed breaking down, and that this will be exploited by opponents of thepeace process. Thus, President Chandrika Kumaratunga's decision to put the troops on high alert may have beena legitimate use of her constitutional powers as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, but it was also givenwide publicity by the media, and added to the agitation of the people.
In the last couple of weeks the media had been giving mixed messages regarding the peace process. On the onehand, there is a focus on disruptions to the process, of which there were many. Some of the most threateningincidents included the sinking of an LTTE cargo vessel, suspected of carrying arms, by the Sri Lanka navy,which resulted in the loss of over a dozen LTTE lives on March 10. This was followed by the brutal hacking todeath of nearly 20 Chinese civilian sailors on board a shipping vessel flying the Sri Lankan flag, on March20. More recently, between April 16 and 21, there have been clashes in the multi ethnic eastern region of thecountry, where there has been widespread violence between Tamils and Muslims, with several hundred Muslimsfleeing their homes.
On the other hand, the media has also given prominence to the remarkable success of the government in raisinginternational donor funding. The World Bank and IMF have together pledged over USD 800 million in aid for thenext three years, granting Sri Lanka 100 percent of what it was able to receive. Government spokespersons alsospoke confidently of obtaining a total of USD 1 billion for three consecutive years from donor countries andmultilateral agencies, exceeding all previous fund raising efforts. But a perceptive observer would have notedthe absence of the LTTE from these claims of success and anticipatory rejoicing.
Being invited to Washington for the donor meeting at a time when the United States was focussed on the Iraqsituation was an undoubted triumph for the Sri Lankan Government. But in seeking to project itself as havingsecured a great success in order to pander to its voter base, the government has evidently alienated the LTTE.In the government's highly publicised achievement in Washington, the LTTE may have seen its future exclusionfrom other important events and decisions; its belief in an equal partnership with the Government has beensundered. The LTTE's action of pulling out from the peace talks needs to be seen in this light.
In announcing its withdrawal from the peace negotiations, the LTTE is making it clear that its cooperation isessential if the government is to attain its aid target. In fact, by threatening to boycott the Tokyo donorconference, the LTTE is also making the larger point that everything the country has achieved in the course ofthe last 16 months of peace is contingent on its cooperation. And indeed, the government and the LTTE havebeen partners in making Sri Lanka a unique and textbook case of a successful peace process, at least, tillthis point. If this success is to continue, so must that partnership.
In its letter of April 21 to the Government, the LTTE said, "During the early negotiating sessions it wasagreed that the government of Sri Lanka and the LTTE should work together and approach the internationalcommunity in partnership." There are, of course, difficult questions to be asked and answered about thenature of this partnership. There are partnerships that are equal and others that are not. There could beequality in some aspects and inequality in other aspects of a relationship. Where the ceasefire agreement isconcerned, the government and the LTTE are equals. They were the two parties at war and without their jointcollaboration and commitment the war would not have ended.
On the other hand, when the LTTE agreed to a federal solution, they recognised there would be only one centralgovernment in Sri Lanka. Foreign governments and multilateral donor agencies give their funds to the centralgovernment because they can seek repayment from it. There is accountability when dealing with a nationalgovernment. Such accountability is not possible with a militant organisation that has not yet contested anelection or formed an internationally recognised government. The LTTE has to accept the reality that it willnot be treated as equal to the Sri Lankan government when it comes to accessing international donor funding.
However, the LTTE's sense of being marginalised in the peace process, especially during the Washington donorconference, needs to be appreciated. The LTTE said,