XI-Putin Meet: What to Expect From The Warming Bonhomie

Days after Trump’s much covered stay at the Four Seasons Hotel ended, Beijing is set to welcome Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, May 19. The Russian President, along with more than three dozen delegates, will be landing in Beijing for a two-day visit starting today. 

This year marks three decades of the Sino-Russia strategic partnership and the 25th anniversary of the Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation with both leaders reportedly exchanging “congratulatory letters” earlier on Sunday. 

Speaking after Victory Day celebrations in Moscow on May 9, Putin said that the two nations were “very close to agreement on taking a highly significant step forward in oil and gas cooperation.”

Also, Global Times (Chinese state-owned media) on Monday boasted of Beijing emerging as “focal point of global diplomacy”, adding “it is extremely rare in the post-cold war era for a country to host the leaders of the US and Russia back to back within a week.”

What To Expect?

Coming as part of rotating annual meetings, the Kremlin, in a Financial Times report, said it had the “most serious expectations” for the visit. 

In a statement released by the Kremlin, the completion of Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline running east to China is expected to feature in the leader’s exchange.

The Financial Times, puts this project as ‘Moscow’s only real chance to offset some of its lost exports to Europe.’ The two sides are expected to sign around 40 documents as per the British daily. 

“For Russia, the visit demonstrates that it retains high‑level political access and economic partners despite Western pressure,” Alexander Korolev, a senior lecturer in international relations at UNSW in Australia, told Al Jazeera.

For China, said Korolev, “(This visit) highlights Beijing’s foreign policy agency and the fact that China’s foreign policy stands on its own and is not shaped by others’ preference.”

Speaking to NYT, Andrei Kortunov, a Russian expert with the Kremlin-linked Valdai Discussion Club said “the current situation also creates additional opportunities for Russia.” 

Joseph Webster, from the Atlantic Council, wrote that Xi would be willing to expand oil partnership with Russia as “(that) would significantly enhance Beijing’s oil security in a Taiwan contingency,” highlighting how “Taiwan may be the subtext of the Xi-Putin meeting."

Sino-Russia Ties

While the two countries have described their partnerships in a state sans limits, Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center think tank, to BBC, said ""Russia is fully in China's pocket, and China can dictate the terms."

In recent times, American sanctions over Russia meant the beleaguered economy relied further on China. Consider, for instance, the growing foothold of Huawei in the Russian telecommunication industry. 

Since the 2022 invasion of Ukrainian territory by Russia, China has purchased more than 360 billion of oil from China as per Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

China is the buyer for more than a quarter of Russia’s exports while supplying more than a third of Russian imports. In spite of such dependencies, Russia makes up only about 4 percent of China’s international trade. Putin would, therefore, seek to secure trade ties as an alternative to the Chinese market is not a reality for Moscow. 

Russia, says Gabuev, “offers military technologies such as niche equipment that it can still sell, and testing some Chinese equipment or components.”

Also, the crisis around Strait of Hormuz, positions Russian energy resources as a vital alternative for the world’s second largest crude oil consumer. 

Economic complementarity along with shared opposition to a world order led by the West, and especially America, has shaped the Sino-Russia partnership. A Chinese analyst, however, puts the performative summits and meetings as ‘ a political tool to smooth over occasional differences in interests.’

Charles Parton, a former British diplomat to China, speaking to BBC, questions if the bonhomie at the political level trickles down, “Do Chinese want to study in Moscow and settle in Moscow and buy flats in Moscow? No."