Is Türkiye’s Strongman Losing Ground?

Ever since Erdogan took office in 2003, he has ruled with an iron fist, discouraging any kind of protest. Yet sudden arrest of Istanbul’s popular mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, days ahead his nomination as his party’s candidate for the presidential elections of 2028, have triggered an angry outburst from citizens. People are out on the streets every night in protest. Sit-ins, road blockades and sloganeering  by ordinary citizens to protest the mayor’s arrest have been reported across the country. These are not just party workers but students and young people, retirees, and factory hands are out on all night vigils. Imamoglu was arrested on charges of corruption, money laundering and aiding terrorism.  

The pent-up frustration over the government’s strong-arm tactics, stifling of democratic institutions, a judiciary complicit with the ruling party’s agenda and rising prices have all come together to bring people out on to the streets. The mayor’s arrest merely provided the spark. Over 1.000 protesters have so  been detained.

Ekrem Imamoglu belongs to the secular-centrist Republican People’s Party (CHP) and won the pivotal Istanbul’s mayor’s office first in 2019 and for a second term in 2024. The win was a blow to Erdogan, who tried every trick in the trade to stop him. In last year’s municipal elections, the CHP performed beyond expectations. It managed to win elections in 14 cities, 21 provinces, and 337 districts and increased its vote share to 35.48 percentage points. Erdogan’s ruling AKP or Justice and Development Party got 32.38 percent of the votes in the municipal elections, though Erdogan won the presidential elections of 2023 hands down.

The mayor of Istanbul is an important position, and catapults the winner on to the national political scene and gives the candidate a shot at becoming president. Istanbul is the largest city in the country and an economic power house. It is no wonder then that Imamoglu has set his eyes on the presidency and is his party’s candidate for the 2028 elections. Erdogan was also the mayor of Istanbul before winning the top post. Imamoglu is the rising star of Türkiye’s politics and his arrest will further add to his stature.

The President’s potent  mix of politics and religion had widespread appeal in the country as his successive election wins testify. Erdogan popularity among religious-minded and rural folks has so far paid him rich dividends.

The rise of political Islam and Erdogan popularity was a  reaction to what ordinary people believed was a state that was opposed to Islam. Türkiye’s strong secular tradition was promoted by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the reformist president who wanted his country to be a modern secular state. He amended the constitution in 1928 to remove the provision that declared the state’s  religion as Islam. The separation of state and religion was Ataturk’s  commitment to build a strong democratic secular foundation. Ekrem Imamoglu is heir to this secular tradition and is a member of  CHP, the party once headed by Ataturk. Imamoglu represents the modern, scientific and inclusive tradition of Türkiye’s politics.  

While political Islam helped Erdogan to consolidate his political base, his long innings as president has also led to increasing authoritarianism and refusal to accept criticism. He has been accused of using state institution, security services and the courts to undermine his political rivals. His admirers point to the fact that he and his ruling AKD continue to win elections. The subversion of institutions has led to unease among many sections. Add to this the state of the economy, and the high prices that are pinching ordinary folks, all of this is not good news for Erdogan and his ruling party.

According to the Constitution, Erdogan cannot contest the 2028 elections  as the term limit is two terms. He has been in power since becoming prime minister in 2003, and taking over as president in 2014. However there is speculation that Erdogan may want to go ahead and do just that. He could circumvent the Constitution by calling for snap elections. The argument would be that he had not completed the full  term and had got a fresh mandate for another five years. In fact according to a Reuters report, spokesman of the ruling AKD party had said in January that paving the way for the President to run again was  "on our agenda."

 Parliament could  amend the Constitution to allow Erdogan to run again. But that could be difficult as he does not have an overwhelming majority required for changing the Constitution. As of now, Erdogan’s party and its allies have  324 seats, and not the 400 needed for an amendment.

Is this the beginning of the end for Erdogan?

It is unlikely. Support for the Istanbul mayor is finding resonance across urban areas, but Erdogan is no push-over. He has solid support across the countryside and among the religious-minded sections. Many say that the state of the economy is more of a threat to the President than Imamoglu. If inflation can be controlled and the economy performs better,  half the battle will be won. However Erdogan’s decision to arrest Imamoglu  on what are seen as trumped up charges has backfired.  

Nobody knows what Erdogan’s plans are. But the fact remains that he has not groomed or named a successor to take over in 2028. There is an air of uncertainty all around and the public support for the jailed mayor have brought things to a head. Whether the protests will balloon into a much larger pro-democracy movement or fizzle out remains to be seen.