West Bengal Exit Polls: BJP Leads In 3 Surveys, TMC In 1 But History Shows Exit Polls Have Failed Before

As polling for the high-stakes West Bengal Assembly elections concluded on Wednesday, exit poll projections delivered a sharply divided verdict, with three agencies predicting a victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) while one forecast a clear sweep for the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC).

The contrasting projections have set the stage for intense political drama ahead of the official results, scheduled for declaration on May 4.

According to exit poll figures released after voting ended, P-MARQ projected the BJP to secure between 150 and 175 seats, comfortably crossing the majority mark in the 294-member Assembly, while the TMC was projected to win 118 to 138 seats. Praja Poll Analytics went further, giving the BJP 193 seats and the TMC only 100.

Matrize also gave the BJP an edge, projecting 146-161 seats for the saffron party against 125-140 for the TMC.

However, People's Pulse painted a dramatically different picture, projecting the TMC to secure 177-197 seats while restricting the BJP to 95-110 seats.

TMC leaders swiftly rejected the exit poll predictions favoring the BJP, asserting that their party would comfortably return to power. "These exit polls are baseless. It has nothing to do with ground reality. We will win more than 235 seats and the BJP will not win more than 50 seats," TMC leader Kunal Ghosh said.

Echoing similar sentiments, TMC leader Shashi Panja urged caution, saying, "We should wait till the 4th of May. We've seen exit polls like this before, when they were sinking the TMC, but when the TMC emerged victorious, did anyone apologise? This keeps happening. The BJP will lose."

Panja also took aim at the Election Commission and the central government, alleging, "The ECI and the central government will have to take responsibility for the way the elections were conducted, the way people's emotions were stirred up, and the way the central forces treated those who voted on election day. You deprived many people of voting. The answer to all this will be seen on May 4."

As political observers and the public await the May 4 results, many are recalling how exit polls in West Bengal have a notable track record of missing the mark, often underestimating the TMC's actual performance by significant margins.

The most dramatic failure occurred in the 2021 Assembly elections, where pollsters across the board failed to predict the scale of the TMC's landslide victory. Heading into the 2021 results, most exit polls projected a tight contest between the TMC and the BJP. The aggregated "poll of polls" estimated that the TMC would win around 156 seats, with the BJP securing approximately 121 seats in the 294-member Assembly. Some individual polls went further — Jan Ki Baat predicted the BJP would comfortably cross the majority mark with 162 to 185 seats, while India Today-Axis My India suggested a narrow majority for the saffron party.

The actual results, however, told a completely different story. The TMC stormed to victory with 215 seats, while the BJP was restricted to just 77 constituencies. No polling agency projected the TMC to win above 176 seats. On average, exit polls underestimated the TMC's performance by 61 seats and overestimated the BJP's tally by 49 seats.

The 2016 Assembly elections also saw a similar pattern, though less extreme. While exit polls correctly predicted a TMC victory, they significantly underestimated its margin. The "poll of polls" estimated the TMC would win around 184 seats, but the party actually secured 211 seats.

Violence, EVM Complaints Mar Final Phase

The final phase of polling, which covered 142 constituencies across eight districts, was marred by incidents of violence and allegations of EVM irregularities.

Violence and vandalism were reported from multiple locations, including Howrah, Chapra, Shantipur, Nimtala, and Bhangar, police said. An EVM glitch allegedly sparked a clash in Howrah's Bally suburb, leading to CRPF personnel detaining two individuals. In Chapra, a BJP polling agent was reportedly assaulted by suspected TMC supporters, a claim the TMC has denied.

In Shantipur, a BJP camp office was found vandalised on Wednesday morning, with furniture smashed, triggering tension in the area. Police also issued a warning to Kartik Banerjee, brother of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, and TMC workers who had gathered close to a polling booth, stating that no more than four people would be allowed to assemble at a spot.

Nearly 2,400 companies of the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) were deployed across the state to ensure peaceful voting.

## Record Voter Turnout

Despite the disturbances, voter enthusiasm remained high. The first phase of polling on April 23 recorded a remarkable 92.6 percent turnout across 152 constituencies, according to Election Commission data.

The final phase also witnessed heavy polling, with over 61 percent turnout recorded by 1 PM in the second phase. Purba Bardhaman registered the highest turnout in the final phase at 66.8 percent, followed by Hooghly at 64.57 percent.