When Climate Change Meets Himalayan Geopolitics

The abiding images over the past few days are of the huge tragedy from a massive flash flood that struck Nepal in the Trishuli valley just west of Kathmandu. Reports suggest that over 650 people are dead and thousands missing with hundreds of pilgrims, mostly Indians or of Indian-origin, returning from Kailash Mansarovar, stranded on the Chinese side of the border.

The loss of property in Nepal is of an unimaginable scale with entire villages, bridges and roads being swept away. Rehabilitation will certainly be a long-drawn affair and expensive.

The Trishuli valley is also a major artery to Tibet and is used by pilgrims going to Kailash Mansarovar. Naturally, this has led to a tourism boom with small hotels and developments coming up close to the river adding hugely to the death and destruction.

Preliminary analysis suggests that this flash flood was not a conventional outcome of very heavy rainfall, but a high mountain event involving a glacier and ice-rock collapse leading to huge amounts of water and debris cascading down the river sweeping all in its course with unimaginable power and fury. There are fears of a second flash flood with a barrier lake formed by the first flash flood overflowing with the possibility of it collapsing.

Climate Change

Nepal’s Himalayan geography is known as being earthquake prone. The past few decades have seen this susceptibility being compounded by another one—that of climate change affecting the Himalayas.

The Himalayas are often referred to as the third pole on Earth, huge reservoirs of ice and water and activities impacting the ecosystem in the whole of the Indian subcontinent, Tibet and indeed the globe.

For years, the melting of Himalayan glaciers has been noticed, leading to climate scientists repeatedly calling for both climate mitigation and adaptation efforts and awareness regarding flooding and the times to come as well as water scarcity across the Gangetic plain.

The big advice has been monitoring, early-warning systems, land-use planning, infrastructure design, preparedness and the need to account for the changing cryospheric conditions rather than relying only on historical risk patterns are obviously critical in the Himalayas.

Critically, perhaps, is the timely sharing of hydrological and cryosphere data, developing joint monitoring and management mechanisms and coordinating decisions across countries and sectors.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified effective governance as a key enabler of adaptation and disaster-risk reduction in mountain regions. And, because mountain hazards and river systems cross administrative and national boundaries, it has underscored the importance of regional cooperation and transboundary governance.

Recognising the transboundary nature of these Himalayan hazards, governments of countries in the Hindu Kush and Himalayan interconnected region established the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) in Kathmandu in 1983. Rightly so, the participating governments are not just Nepal, Inda, China and Bhutan, but also Bangladesh and Myanmar on the Himalayan side and Pakistan and Afghanistan on the Hindu Kush side.

The Himalayas are also relatively fragile, commonly known as the young fold mountains. This makes them especially vulnerable to degradation from the movement of the Earth’s tectonic plates, and, importantly, by manmade disruptions such as infrastructure development, which the Chinese have undertaken in Tibet in a major way.

The Chinese Connection

Quite apart from its strong internal interest in ensuring the complete inclusion of Tibet in the Chinese mainstream, the Chinese infrastructure push in Tibet certainly has a defence-oriented reason in relation to its border with India. In that sense, no matter the Chinese civil engineering prowess, the push of geopolitics may have led to the creation of heavy infrastructure without major regard to the eco-sensitivity of the Himalayan region.

The quality of cryosphere monitoring and the sharing of data with Nepal also appears to have been deficient.

With the Chinese building a mega dam across the Tsangpo (Brahmaputra), other than water flow, the ecological issues of that construction are of obvious matter of concern for India, but it should be to Bangladesh too.

Speaking at an India-Nepal conference in Kathmandu the day after the flash flood, Nepal’s Foreign Minister Shisir Khanal noted that the Himalayan interconnectedness of India-Nepal-China. Calling the cryosphere changes a “civilisational threat”, he noted that “there could be political rivalry, but we have to come together as the Himalayan region is most vulnerable to climate change”.

As two of the largest nation states in the world, with a long and contested border, geopolitical contestation between India and China has been seen for decades. Nepal too has long land borders with both India and China and has sought to describe itself as a ‘yam’ between the two giants with a certain balancing narrative being part of the Nepali politics no matter the clear recognition of the hugest of civilisational and economic ties with India. Without doubt, the growing influence of China in Nepali politics, economics and, indeed, at a societal level, going well beyond the Chinese interest of keeping Tibetan activities in check, cannot but be worrisome for India and so contestation is also there in Nepal.

As was natural, India was the first respondent with Prime Minister Narendra Modi calling Prime Minister Balen Shah condoling the loss and offering disaster-related assistance, the first tranche of which reached Nepal the day of the flood itself. Predictably, the Chinese responded soon thereafter. Nepal has since sought assistance from India in putting up bailey bridges and medical relief, matching the numbers in their request to the Chinese. Be that as it may, India’s solidarity and help for Nepal at this time will be at its strongest.

While the India-China issues have long existed in Nepal with now the imperative of climate change resulting in Himalayan hazards demanding cooperation no matter the geopolitical contestation, recent years have seen the US becoming active in Nepal. Indeed, many believe that it was their encouragement of the Gen Z protests last September, which has resulted in a new government of young leaders. Here, of course, it must be noted that the US, at present, is completely disdainful of climate change and has withdrawn from all its international commitments. The Nepalis could not but have noticed this.

Hopefully, the catastrophe in Nepal, along with the impact of wildfires that have raged through Europe and the US, must force everyone to recognise the critical importance of climate action, globally and in collaboration with all.

(The author is the former ambassador of India to Nepal and lead negotiator for India at the climate change negotiations)

(Views expressed are personal)